Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn2022
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Looks like it has fizzled out along the South, still firing away around Bangor / Larne.
Main bulk of the rain inland now , maybe still a small chance of some off the SE, will see if the thunderstorms spread across the Northern counties later.
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TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY TORRO
Rather intense, vertically-stack low is to the SW of the Republic of Ireland this morning. A well-marked shortwave trough is rotating around the eastern flank, marked by a line of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms. Radar presentation suggests some organised/persistent cells within and just ahead of this line, perhaps supercells. Shear, especially low-level shear, is rather impressive, suggesting the potential for both deep and low-level rotation within more discrete cells.
One or two tornadoes are possible across the Watch area through today and this evening, especially across central and southern parts of the RoI - the persistence of active thunderstorms with northward-extent is somewhat uncertain, hence the rather large area. Strong wind gusts and reasonably-large hail are possible with the more active cells, with CG lightning/heavy rain additional hazards.
Meanwhile, conditions across parts of SW England/Wales, into the Midlands/Cent S England are being monitored for a possible advisory or watch a bit later today.
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Some forecast, just looking through the charts and tons of shear available, CAPE shown to approach land up around 400 -500 J/kg and a bit less inland, skinny enough CAPE profile overland but better chance today of some storms moving in over land and up the country . Certainly blustery in Kerry this morning.
Will be interesting to see if we get some tornadic reports.
Pushing inland quickly now
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