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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn2022

  • 01-09-2022 8:36pm
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Over the weekend into the early days of next week conditions look like giving potential for thunderstorms at times.

    Saturday behind the cold front the atmosphere should be quite unstable over the Western half of the country and more so towards coastal counties with very cold air aloft over warm SST's giving rise to convection with heavy showers and could well see some thunderstorms and wouldn't be surprised to hear of hail falling locally. Temperatures looking very low along Atlantic coastal counties so a lot of the instability coming from the sea temperatures I would think. Could get some good pictures of Anvils in the afternoon and towards evening

    Post edited by DOCARCH on



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH

    Sferics showing up off the Kerry coast.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Some nice convection visible off the Kerry coast, quite cloudy in general but bright with pockets of blue sky. Will see what enfolds today, might get some thunderstorm overland in Kerry today and up along western coastal counties, convective weather has shown a fairly wide area with potential interest and interesting what might develop later tonight early Sun morning in the SE, E.

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Sep 2022

    ISSUED 06:49 UTC Sat 03 Sep 2022

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    A sharp prefrontal trough will migrate gradually northwards across England into southern Scotland on Saturday. The low-level wind convergence along the trough axis, combined with modest heating of a moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 14-17C) yielding around 500 J/kg CAPE, will provide an environment increasingly favourable for scattered heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially with time (meaning northern England/southern Scotland at greatest risk, towards late afternoon and into the evening hours). There will likely be issues with mid-level capping restricting the depth of convection in places - and so lightning activity is questionable - but this should be less of an issue towards far northern England and southern Scotland. Here, reasonable speed shear and subtle veering with height may create an environment with around 30kts DLS, which may aid cell organisation for a time. Greatest threat for local surface water flooding is SW Scotland where multiple cells may train over similar areas. Eventual upscale growth into a band of rain is anticipated through the evening and night hours, and so lightning activity will likely wane. However, an uptick in elevated convection is possible in E / SE Scotland during the early hours of Sunday, spreading inland from the North Sea. Confidence is not overly high on much in the way of lightning occurring, but tentatively introduced a SLGT here.

    In the post-frontal environment, scattered showers are likely in C / W / S Ireland in a strongly-sheared environment. Limited CAPE and the potential for clusters of showers to morph into areas of showery rain casts some uncertainty over how much lightning activity may actually occur. By the overnight period model guidance diverges substantially as a pronounced dry intrusion engages with the trailing cold front over the Celtic Sea, inducing a wave or even a developing surface low. Strong forcing could result in a few active thunderstorms somewhere over the Celtic Sea, which could impact SE Ireland and/or SW Wales/SW England, but there is a lot of uncertainty over whether this will even occur let alone areas potentially affected. ECMWF and derived products have been consistent in a more active feature/greater pressure falls, and therefore favour a track further to the west into Ireland, whereas other model guidance is less-developed and further east (into more of Wales/SW England). Given strong low-level shear and backed winds in the vicinity of the cold front, there is a threat for both SLW and isolated tornadoes - and a SVR has been introduced for this risk. Some local surface water flooding may also be possible with pockets of more intense convection, especially where this trains over similar areas.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,285 ✭✭✭weisses

    Some nice CTG lightning here in w Kerry 👌

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭squarecircles

    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Heavy rain will move northwards across much of the country tonight, clearing from the north and northwest on Sunday morning.

    Some torrential downpours are expected in parts, resulting in surface flooding. There is also the potential for thunderstorm activity and lightning strikes.

    Valid: 01:00 Sunday 04/09/2022 to 10:00 Sunday 04/09/2022

    Issued: 08:39 Friday 02/09/2022

    Updated: 10:50 Saturday 03/09/2022

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭squarecircles

    Status Orange - Rain warning for Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Local intense rainfall (50mm), and squalls likely.

    See yellow warnings also.

    Valid: 04:00 Sunday 04/09/2022 to 08:00 Sunday 04/09/2022

    Issued: 11:36 Saturday 03/09/2022

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭squarecircles

    Latest update

    Turning very wet in many areas tonight. There will be clear spells and scattered showers at first, but more persistent showery rain, accompanied by local thunder and strengthening southeasterly winds, will then sweep northwards over the country. The rain will be very heavy in places, bringing a possibility of localised flooding with some lightning strikes. Lowest temperatures of 7 to 11 degrees. Becoming blustery in many areas, especially along eastern and northern coasts.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,687 ✭✭✭Storm 10

    From a friend out there thunder and lightning near Clifden Co Galway

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Loud thunder here near Tralee, very gravy showers and sun out again, pic of convection coming towards me.

  • Registered Users Posts: 32,636 ✭✭✭✭Graces7

    THUNDER out here offshore West Mayo..

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,687 ✭✭✭Storm 10

    What chance of a storm in the West tonight Metorite58

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,801 ✭✭✭Oscar Bravo

    Frequent lightning thunder and torrential rain here in Castlebar now. Big thunderstorm moving up west Mayo

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno

    Real Time Lightning Map ::

    A great resource on days like this!

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,586 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly

    Blue skies near Tralee this evening

  • Registered Users Posts: 22,741 ✭✭✭✭

    Storm loving Dubs had a tough time a few weeks a go as many other areas got decent storm activity. Might be more fortunate tonight. It will be after 2am though so a long night potentially.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭Darwin

    The model runs today (ECM, Hirlam) have pushed the really heavy rain further east each time. I wonder if will update their warnings as Dublin is still Yellow (but should probably be orange), while Laois is looking more Yellow at this stage. That's assuming the predictive rainfall from these models are correct of course :)

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Noticed that too, maybe we could see an upgrade yet when the next runs come out.

    Heavy rain not far from the S, SE coasts now, some sferics showing up in it also.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,787 ✭✭✭Calibos

    The Radar animation progression certainly makes it look like its heading in the direction of the East Coast moreso than the Midlands alright.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Storm just making its way towards the Cork Coast now.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,590 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor

    Storm? It's a spell of heavy rain...

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,348 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭giveitholly

    Heavy rain would hardly make people think that EP would be cancelled........

  • Registered Users Posts: 144 ✭✭Robwindstorm

    Lads, the clue is in the title, I think meteorite is talking about a thunderstorm rather than a general widespread event. It looks it's going to be a rough night in a tent with a few leakages 😁

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,813 ✭✭✭spookwoman

    Lightning off skibbereen

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,813 ✭✭✭spookwoman

    Some squall line heading up but looks like it will be out to sea if it holds

    Thats heading towards the uk. There's looks like another to the south of ireland. can just see it on the edge of the radar straight down from limerick

    Post edited by spookwoman on

  • Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭teddybones

    was woken up by the rain and wind hammering on the window! Absolutely crazy out there. I am in Wicklow town on a hill overlooking the sea. Very unpleasant out there. Just miserable for anyone caught in it. Thinking of all the electric picnickers.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,813 ✭✭✭spookwoman

    east one looks interesting again and seems to be turning in

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,390 ✭✭✭Jeff2

    It's lashing down in Dublin 7 for hours, still going. Never seen it go on so much for so long.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭Dazler97

    Lashing here in Carrick the last hour and looking only to get heavier, gone colder as well 10c

This discussion has been closed.