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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    The UK was the wealthiest country in the world then, yet domestically millions were starving under policies of laissez faire.

    The rapid rise in UK food banks over the last decade has surpassed the legacy foodbanks from Germany's reconstruction period.

    In a nation that's imports 50% of its food another currency devaluation will push hand to mouth existence to the fore.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    As I said, the comparison is absurd and frankly in poor taste.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    I understand well the point of Starmer’s signalling how he does “because he feels he has to be” and acknowledged it.

    But by the same token, you cannot expect me to buy into that “his party [Labour] is pro-Remain and pro-EU”: if that was the case, he would not be signalling so closely to the UKIP’ied Tories on Brexit.

    Labour hasn’t been pro-Remain and pro-EU for 6 years. Starmer is straddling the exact same electoral fence that Corbyn did for years beforehand. And he/Labour would get obliterated at the next GE for the exact same reason in that respect: appealing to both sides of the Brexit ideological divide, and pleasing neither.

    Away from domestic electoral considerations: don’t kid yourselves that irrespective of whether Starmer got the keys to no.10 with a side helping of LibDems, the EU will still want to see the TCA with NIP implemented in full, and then monitor compliance awhile, before any improvements can be considered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,290 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Food banks and the famine really have nothing got to do with each other.

    In fact "food bank" is actually a misleading name for those places as they deal in all categories of grocery and it's often found that people have spent what little they have on food and are going to a food bank for everything except food.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I think you're conflating the Labour party with the previous leadership which was quite Eurosceptic. I recall posting a link showing that 82% of the Momentum movement were pro-Remain and wanted a second referendum, a pledge to which they secured at the 2019 conference. If memory serves, the Parliamentary party had a similar percentage.

    I'm not sure what it is now. Starmer is straddling said electoral fence because he actually wants to win. Corbyn and his crew were happy with controlling the party as a whole, not winning elections (save John McDonnell). There's a hostile media primed to pounce on any hint of undoing Brexit.

    Best case scenario, even if he does pledge to rejoin ASAP and the EU27 accept, what's to stop the Tories just running on the opposite platform via "undoing the will of the people". The Brexit narrative needs to be tangibly dismantled on the ground and that only happens when the Brexit Titanic hits the reality iceberg. We can visibly see the water flowing in now, metaphorically speaking.

    I think his position opens up the possibility of closer alignment and it has my tepid support for now. I want back in but I see that it's pointless without real change in the way the UK is governed and improving that will take time.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    What comparison?

    I'm not comparing the present with the past. I'm asserting that the established trend will inevitably lead to food security problems. It's arrogance to state otherwise considering the established upward explosion of food banks in the UK since 2008.

    A historical note the workhouses where so many perished were actually mostly constructed before the mass failure of the tenants main food. It was policy not to interfere with insecure tenure just as the current UK government is happy to let Britain be asset stripped now.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    By invoking the potato famine, you compared 2022 Britain to it. It's tasteless and unnecessary. I've no interest in going any further down this tangent.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    There was no shortage of food in Ireland when the blight ruined the subsistence crop of the tenant farmer.

    People in Liverpool didn't believe there was mass starvation in Ireland because their docks were constantly full of Irish wheat, beef and butter.

    The potato also failed across western Europe, blight being first noted in France, but only in Ireland did it lead to mass starvation.

    The workhouses may as well have had "arbeit macht frei" above their entrances.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,549 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    The end is nigh for Johnson, would be surprised if he lasts the week and may even be gone tonight. We have 2 ministers who has resigned as of now, Sunak and Javid at the moment. So we will have to see who takes over to see if there will be a change in approach from the UK.


    Add in the talk of Starmer being fined for Covid breaches, which means he will resign, it could be a tumultuous few days/weeks/months in the UK. Just what you need in a crises, more drama.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭rock22


    I am going by the extract posted by Nody. Let me highlight

    the Labour leader will.. say .. would not join a customs union with the EU, in maintaining the hard Brexit brokered by Boris Johnson.

    He wants a new veterinary agreement for agricultural products moving between the UK and EU, and an enhanced trusted trader scheme to allow low-risk goods entering Northern Ireland without unnecessary checks.

    a new veterinary agreement in a bid to resolve the protocol row, Labour would also try to extend a veterinary agreement to cover all of the UK

    As Nody wrote, "..let's do all this stuff already proposed that EU already said "no way" to two previous PMs because Starmer will make it work"

    @54and56 said I don't think that's at all fair. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with his politics Starmer is at least honourable and trustworthy

    but

    @ancapailldorcha said Starmer is only aligned on them because he feels he has to be. His party is pro-Remain and pro-EU. There's no way he maintains his current position if he becomes PM.

    So is he trustworthy, keeping his word , or intending to change his position when he gets elected as PM?

    The whole point is, Starmer is now saying he will deliver a new agreement with the EU but he is ruling out a customs union or aligning with the single market. It just isn't deliverable, any more than the ready made deal for Christmas that Johnson delivered.

    I had great hopes for Starmer, felling he had the analytical mind to sort through the agreements and media savvy enough to sell it. But I fear I was wrong, The EU are not going to go over or change any agreement to allow a new UK government cherry pick the best bits of EU membership, at least not until the NI Protocol in working properly. If he came out unabiguously and stated that he would immediately live up to the withdrawal agreement, NIP included, then I would have more confidence he position was different to Johnsons. So far he hasn't.

    At this stage, I think there is a certain exhaustion in the EU around Brexit. No one will be happy to get into negotiation again with the UK. And the commission wont move until the NIP is sorted and implemented.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,207 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    A veterinary agreement is possible, but it would require aligning to EU veterinary standards. Something they already do, but they could not then diverge from them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭rock22


    I would think the EU would only agree to such an agreement if the UK agreed , by treaty, to align with EU standards. They would not countenance an agreement simply based on current standards when the UK government are already talking of changing them.

    What i am waiting to hear from Starmer is that as PM he will live up to the current agreements with the EU. Until then, from an outsider(Eu) perspective, there is little to distinguish the Tory and Labour position . I think that both revolve around the idea of UK exceptionalism and that a new government can reset the negotiations with the EU



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,290 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It just isn't deliverable, any more than the ready made deal for Christmas that Johnson delivered

    So it's as not deliverable as a delivered deal ?

    Johnson's "oven ready" deal is fully deliverable it just needs Johnson to stop stirring sht.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't think Starmer wants to cherrypick anything. I think he just wants closer alignment which is a sensible position for anyone outside the Brexiter bubble. Bear in mind that we're seeing the full on effects of Brexit now, unmasked by covid. I think the charge of duplicity is unfair. People should be allowed to change their minds as time goes on. He has not made this a formal election pledge codified in a manifesto. Much can and will almost certainly change between now and the issuing of such a document.

    I think the EU would love closer alignment. It neuters chicanery from the UK, settles the protocol and begins the path to re-entry though that is both a long way off yet and will require significant constitutional change on this end.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    Ian Dunt flagged the veterinarian checks as a massive red flag back at the time of the vote as then 95% of the vets working in the UK meat industry were EU nationals; UK vets being mostly focused on pets and horses.

    It really is a case of needing an agreement on this matter as the UK can't uphold any meat standards it sets itself. Anyone who remembers BSE and the foot and mouth outbreak twenty years ago knows how damaging low standards can be for UK meat producers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    your problem seems to be that you think only the uk has issues and the rest of europe does not . while the uk has slightly bigger issues its not like uk is very bad eu is doing super well. germany and france have many many food banks and germany has a lot of issue with animal hygiene and meat processing. all the european main countries have lorry driver shortages and all big airports and airlines in europe have huge issues.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You've missed the point. Nobody was claiming that the EU is perfect. The point is that Brexit exacerbates the current problems with staffing, cost of living and so on.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    With respect you obviously didn't read my earlier post where I explained that the number of German food banks mostly exist on paper from the post war reconstruction era, whereas in the UK they've exploded in numbers since 2008.

    The main point is that in the last decade foodbanks in UK have surpassed the amount Germany required after a catastrophic war. The fact that other European countries have food banks has zero to do with the established trend in the UK since 2008 to the point where essential workers now rely on them.

    At least now some people who voted for brexit might finally realise that it was not the EU asset stripping their nation.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,951 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub



    All those things are true - Nowhere is doing particularly well at the moment , but the UK is carrying an extra "Brexit tax" on top of all of this entirely of their own making.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, if the UK sets up a fully functioning vet inspection system such that SPS checks are not needed with trade between the UK and EU, then the UK are signing up to EU standards - it can be no other way. So not the SM but the SM in all but name for SPS controlled goods. This means no chlorinated chicken, no gmo foods, and lots of food standards not able to diverge. That alone solves most of the NI protocol for a start - but still full Brexit.

    Now for the rest of the Brexit nonsense and he will quickly get to BRINO. Let us hope so.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    It is much worse than an extra “Brexit tax”, IMHO.

    The negative effects of the deal didn’t arrive at once, and hit different sectors in waves, the whole shitshow cohering slowly, like Guernica painted by a pointillist”:

    I’d argue that it is now doing systemic damage, and has reached sufficient critical mass across and within UK plc, to become both self-sustaining and self-aggravating.

    As much of the vectors of crisis (oil, inflation, food, etc.) have yet to play out fully, I cannot think of any other European country facing such a perfect storm of attritional factors.

    With further compounding factors in the background, like all UK applicants to Horizon finally getting the boot (29 June deadline came and went, UK still hasn’t implemented TCA-NIP provisions).

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/05/eu-scraps-115-grants-uk-scientists-academics-brexit-row?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Dark day for British science. Less R&D, more brain drain <etc>



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    That's not the sort of hit UK science can afford. They were huge recipients of Horizon funding:


    I doubt anyone outside the remain and science bubbles will care and it'll be dismissed as Remoaner nonsense or something. It's a real loss and the government can't afford to make up the shortfall.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    they dont exist just on paper they are real in germany especially in the eastern part of germany about 930 in 2017 feeding aobut 1.5 milion people

    https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/09/world/germany-food-bank-cnnphotos/

    in this link there is a link in german and from 2014 to 2016 the use off foodbacnks increased by 18 percent according to this survey https://www.tafel.de/fileadmin/media/Presse/Pressemappen/2016_Tafel-Umfrage.pdf

    and they are close too 1000 now and they are seriously struggling to provide help at the moment .google can even help you in english.

    yes brexit is costing the uk about the 4 percent that was projected but brexit is only one of the problems. and europe is just doing marginally better . i would assume that the level of foodbanks which was immense in greece during the crises is still higher in greece than uk as food prices are rather high compared with earnings with uk .

    i dont get this comparisons from before 1960 with 2020 ...

    this is the brexit thread and not a history thread. so if foodbanks rise in uk since 2008 than this has not much to do with brexit ... it might speed it up a bit now but is not really a brexit issue. since foodbanks in europe are also rising at the moement in europe.

    i guess on this thread which is a bit more on facts than tabloid level it would be best to stick to facts as much as possible

    brexit is not good and a bit stupid , but its also not a disaster the brit government is ... but again that is not really brexit.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Wonder is there any scope for Ireland pinching the potential brain drain; all the talk was about FinTech, but perhaps there's an opening for Ireland to pivot towards the kind of scientific R&D previously conducted by British firms and institutions.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    A few years ago, I'd have been sceptical. Now though, Ireland has limited but not insignificant potential. In my own area of specialisation, there are immunotherapeutic companies growing in Ireland. This is the sort of base that a whole sector could grow out from. There's even a firm in Galway specialising in Natural Killer (type of immune cell) cell therapies.

    What hurts Ireland most is its lack of infrastructure and cost of living. I looked into the Galway firm but accommodation is quite expensive, even in Galway.

    Fintech could do better. All you really need is premises and an internet connection. Most staff will work from home anyway for much of the time. English-speaking, well educated population count heavily in Ireland's favour. A bit tongue-in-cheek but the Irish don't have to worry about their country sinking economically like their neighbour or literally like the Dutch.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭yagan


    Brexit is history in the making. It's possibly the greatest example of a nation imposing trade sanctions upon itself in the modern age.

    The explosion of UK foodbanks may have increased the desire for change that the Brexit campaigner took advantage of.

    One thing is certain, brexit has accelerated the decline of living standards that was already underway. The EU is about pooling resources in a world of rising competing trade blocs just to maintain the current standard of living, but the UK going it alone means basically trading its current standard for something less.

    They'll never admit that of course, instead concocting half truths to tell themselves that food banks are normal, the return of polio is normal etc....



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    that is a real brexit issue, well more a northern ireland protocol issue. and of course kermit will nerver mention this here ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭rock22


    @ancapailldorcha wrote ... There's even a firm in Galway specialising in Natural Killer (type of immune cell) cell therapies.

    What hurts Ireland most is its lack of infrastructure and cost of living. I looked into the Galway firm but accommodation is quite expensive, even in Galway.

    Have you considered satellite towns around Galway. Accommodation would be cheaper and the infrastructure is slowly improving.

    .... A bit tongue-in-cheek but the Irish don't have to worry about their country sinking economically like their neighbour or literally like the Dutch.

    Off topic, but being Irish i think i can tell this one. I was told a joke about the Irish and Dutch swapping countries. The Dutch went on to feed the world, the Irish drowned.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,053 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Either way, it is what it is. A bit annoyed that my own CV is worth the same as toilet paper but I'm in a good enough position to carry on here. What really matters from this point on is how the UK performs in relation to other EU contries of a similar economic size, ie France and Germany. Maybe Italy. So far, the signs are not good. It's not a disaster but then, it was always going to be a slow burn of emigration, lost investment and hiring problems.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    I can definitely see Ireland benefiting from moving up the food chain in a number of sectors thanks to Brexit. I'm pretty sure I read that automotive software development had even become a thing in Ireland which it hadn't been previously. The IDA should be absolutely merciless in trying to attract FDI away from GB to us. We owe them nothing after the way they've behaved.



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