Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

I agree with your earlier musing about Starmer's remarks, especially all the talks of vet checks being actually constructive towards a new normal, but back towards the EU it is not. NZ upholds EU standards for it's meat products but Britain hasn't produced a food surplus since before the industrial revolution and simply don't value the notion of food stability. (the largest non war loss of civilian life in UK was after all from mass starvations when laissez faire was let rule in Ireland).

I don't envisage mass starvations, but if standards continue to be eroded and labour shortages continue I can see serious mass malnourishment issues, especially amongst the elderly the poorest.

That's probably already happening. The UK has more food banks than McDonalds now (not saying McDonalds food is better than what you'd get at a food bank, but the fact that there is a need for so many food banks shows how much of the population are struggling to feed themselves)

Weren't UNICEF in some London suburb last year?

Plus malnutrition will only aid the reemergence of diseases not seen in decades. I was chilled when I saw polio being cited last week.

Perhaps the phrase you're looking for is "it couldn't happen here".

Did the UK implode when millions were starving in Ireland?

I don't think the UK will implode if millions are malnourished now. But quality of life and expectations will diminish, especially after another currency devaluation.

What Starmer is proposing sounds very much like being in the SM just without a label to avoid upsetting the brexit hysterics

Starmer just continues to dance on the head of an electoral pin, is all.

Meanwhile, UK plc continues to burn down to the ground, and everybody and their pet red tops continue to look the other way.

Fat lot of good getting elected would do to Starmer, when the UK, in hock to its hair root and without much of an economy left to heart-massage back up, is back to getting the begging bowl out to the IMF.

This is the Brexit thread, not the UK politics one, but I can’t see UK politics reaching escape velocity from Brexit for a (yet another-) decade at this rate.

But that’s the personality aspect.

So Starmer is a nice upstanding citizen. It would be a welcome change from the current Muppet Show, sure. A good thing (no sark).

But in terms of policies, rock22 isn’t wrong. Starmer is aligned on the Tories about no SM/CU, no IndyRef2, immigration, etc…

To the lambda voter, assuming no red/blue tribalism factor, Labour and the Tories are much of a muchness in terms of “what will they do for me”.

Where Brexit is concerned, Starmer’s messaging is welcome -inasmuch as it may get people to dare utter the ‘B’ word again- but in terms of policy, it does nothing to curb the rate at which Brexit is killing off British industry, agri-food and services - of which there would be precious left (never mind ‘still in British controlling hands’) by the time he’s managed to turn the public opinion supertanker.

The stats have long been there, and have recently been officialised by the ONS. Rome is burning fast.

I think Starmer's speech is the first step. He cannot simply come out and say he will work towards SM/CU. HE, and Labour, would simply be torn apart by the Brexit media and the Tories would gladly take the opportunity to ignore the latest Johnson scandal to start screaming about only Johnson can save Brexit.

But what it does is start the conversation. Starmer has remained completely silent on Brexit, and its effects, since he became leader. This is the first time he has broached the subject that Brexit isn't working.

It seems the smart way to approach it. The public is not ready to admit the mistake they made, but increasingly they seem to accept that this version, the Tory version, of Brexit isn't working. So, Labour could potentially do well by making it sound like they have the answer to making Brexit work. We all know it's nonsense, but the UK public has shown themselves, in terms of Brexit at least, to be happy to be lied to once it makes them feel like they are right.

And it could well be the start of the process of changing. We all know that a return to normality, whether that be actually in the EU or just closer alignment, will take many years. There simply isn't going to be a point where people wake up and admit it was all a ghastly mistake and time to cancel it.

But Starmer has started the conversation that there might be a different way. I hope that at the very least, the Labour party now start to actually hold the Tories to account for the outcomes of their decisions. Really put them to the fire for the selling of the deal and then reneging on it. Why is the pound so low yet exports haven't shot up? Why are there queues at the border? What are they doing about musicians and scientists? etc etc

The UK was the wealthiest country in the world then, yet domestically millions were starving under policies of laissez faire.

The rapid rise in UK food banks over the last decade has surpassed the legacy foodbanks from Germany's reconstruction period.

In a nation that's imports 50% of its food another currency devaluation will push hand to mouth existence to the fore.

I understand well the point of Starmer’s signalling how he does “because he feels he has to be” and acknowledged it.

But by the same token, you cannot expect me to buy into that “his party [Labour] is pro-Remain and pro-EU”: if that was the case, he would not be signalling so closely to the UKIP’ied Tories on Brexit.

Labour hasn’t been pro-Remain and pro-EU for 6 years. Starmer is straddling the exact same electoral fence that Corbyn did for years beforehand. And he/Labour would get obliterated at the next GE for the exact same reason in that respect: appealing to both sides of the Brexit ideological divide, and pleasing neither.

Away from domestic electoral considerations: don’t kid yourselves that irrespective of whether Starmer got the keys to no.10 with a side helping of LibDems, the EU will still want to see the TCA with NIP implemented in full, and then monitor compliance awhile, before any improvements can be considered.

The end is nigh for Johnson, would be surprised if he lasts the week and may even be gone tonight. We have 2 ministers who has resigned as of now, Sunak and Javid at the moment. So we will have to see who takes over to see if there will be a change in approach from the UK.

Add in the talk of Starmer being fined for Covid breaches, which means he will resign, it could be a tumultuous few days/weeks/months in the UK. Just what you need in a crises, more drama.

So it's as not deliverable as a delivered deal ?

Johnson's "oven ready" deal is fully deliverable it just needs Johnson to stop stirring sht.

Ian Dunt flagged the veterinarian checks as a massive red flag back at the time of the vote as then 95% of the vets working in the UK meat industry were EU nationals; UK vets being mostly focused on pets and horses.

It really is a case of needing an agreement on this matter as the UK can't uphold any meat standards it sets itself. Anyone who remembers BSE and the foot and mouth outbreak twenty years ago knows how damaging low standards can be for UK meat producers.

It is much worse than an extra “Brexit tax”, IMHO.

“The negative effects of the deal didn’t arrive at once, and hit different sectors in waves, the whole shitshow cohering slowly, like Guernica painted by a pointillist”:

I’d argue that it is now doing systemic damage, and has reached sufficient critical mass across and within UK plc, to become both self-sustaining and self-aggravating.

As much of the vectors of crisis (oil, inflation, food, etc.) have yet to play out fully, I cannot think of any other European country facing such a perfect storm of attritional factors.

With further compounding factors in the background, like all UK applicants to Horizon finally getting the boot (29 June deadline came and went, UK still hasn’t implemented TCA-NIP provisions).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/05/eu-scraps-115-grants-uk-scientists-academics-brexit-row?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Dark day for British science. Less R&D, more brain drain <etc>

they dont exist just on paper they are real in germany especially in the eastern part of germany about 930 in 2017 feeding aobut 1.5 milion people

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/09/world/germany-food-bank-cnnphotos/

in this link there is a link in german and from 2014 to 2016 the use off foodbacnks increased by 18 percent according to this survey https://www.tafel.de/fileadmin/media/Presse/Pressemappen/2016_Tafel-Umfrage.pdf

and they are close too 1000 now and they are seriously struggling to provide help at the moment .google can even help you in english.

yes brexit is costing the uk about the 4 percent that was projected but brexit is only one of the problems. and europe is just doing marginally better . i would assume that the level of foodbanks which was immense in greece during the crises is still higher in greece than uk as food prices are rather high compared with earnings with uk .

i dont get this comparisons from before 1960 with 2020 ...

this is the brexit thread and not a history thread. so if foodbanks rise in uk since 2008 than this has not much to do with brexit ... it might speed it up a bit now but is not really a brexit issue. since foodbanks in europe are also rising at the moement in europe.

i guess on this thread which is a bit more on facts than tabloid level it would be best to stick to facts as much as possible

brexit is not good and a bit stupid , but its also not a disaster the brit government is ... but again that is not really brexit.

that is a real brexit issue, well more a northern ireland protocol issue. and of course kermit will nerver mention this here ...

out of interest who do you think will profit most from the current uk horizon waterloo. is there a country in eu that profits the most or does it move evenly.