Scottish independence

Denmark, Finland, Scotland (independent) and Ireland (UI) would all be equivalent size and GDP, and would naturally find the majority of their interests and concerns would align quite neatly, and could act as a bulwark against their larger fellow member states, (France, Germany, Spain, Italy) and against the eastern recipient member states (Poland, Hungary, Chechia, Slovenia, etc.).

FDI is a temporary issue that benefits Ireland now, but could well shift eastwards as the economies shift in capabilities. The USA FDI companies could well be attracted back home, or to other locations as they are driven by tax, available workers with appropriate skills, and not be the weather in Ireland, or Ireland health service or housing costs.

Territorial waters could well be an issue for a newly independent Scotland, particularly wrt Rockall - in the past, England has already laid claim to some of Scotland's waters. [citation needed]

Berwick on Tweed might also be another issue.

Bit early to be looking for conflict with an independent Scotland - it will not happen for at least a decade.

The 52% was for the actual vote.

If the SNP were to lose, they would be finished as a party - they would gradually collapse.

Their aim should be to be certain of victory - not hope for a bounce. Reliable poll nos above 55% to 60% with nay sayers at under 40% is what they need. Less than that and failure is possible. The other side plays dirty.

There could be a reluctance from independent leaning voters to having a poll unless it has a high or very high chance of passing since a loss would put the whole question out of reach for at least a generation.

Clearly if both figures are correct, then some yes voters do not want to be asked yet.

What would push up the 'yes' vote, to inflate it to the 60% and above?

Tories are not a force in Scotland, and Labour is much reduced - at least until IndyRef passes and then SNP has a split about to happen.

Would economics drive it? Or the wish to have Scottish voices determining Scotland's future? Or the desire to get away from the nasty Tory Party? Or perhaps the early re-joining of the EU and the Single Market?

Scotland is a good size for an independent state, as it is close in size to Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and half the size of Sweden - all Northern European. With the exception of Ireland, all those are members of NATO - I would expect NATO to be accepted by an independent Scotland, and would be a big issue rUK (England) if they were to refuse to join.

At the end of the day, what would be required to get a yes vote over the line?

So cost of living, and the ability for Scotland to do what benefits Scotland to reduce inflation, would be one issue that could be used. OK, that sounds possible.

Joining the EU was used against independence last time, so this time it would be used to advance independence. OK, that sounds possible also.

So that's two issues.

Would simply Scottish identity be another?

"The Romans never came here, we were always considered savages, and since the reformation our religion has been very different."

The Romans were never in Scotland either. They built a wall to keep them out - although it was not very high.

[Or at least one form of history says so.]

I believe Scotland is quite divided along religious lines - Celtic vs Rangers for example.

There may be a similar divide for identities between pro-Britain vs Pro Scottish. I have no real knowledge of this though - just suppose.

Off topic -

I remember when the FIFA President Blatter got into a bit of a splatter over claims made against him of corruption (he is currently facing trial for corruption in Switzerland - verdict due end of July), a spokesman for the FA (England) said Blatter was signing up teams into FIFA 'which were not even in the UN' - said the England spokesman - remind me when was England ever a member of the UN.

I have a theory that a 'nation' gets its name in popular culture from one of two sources. Either the name of its soccer team (e. g. France) or from the name it prints on its stamps (e. g. France). We of course confuse the issue, so the country's name is Ireland, but we put Eire on the stamp and 'Republic of Ireland' on the soccer team. Now France is proud to be a republic, just as we are, but they get known as France, while we get stuck with RoI. [Pet hate of mine - particularly the term 'Southern Ireland']

@Fr Tod Umptious

I think you missed the 'in popular culture' bit. I know the history.

The UK do not have their name on their stamps - they just have a silhouette of the monarch. Probably they found 'The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland' would not fit on either a stamp or a scoreboard. :)