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Scottish independence

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Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Those figures are pretty eye watering when spoken aloud. I think we can already see where potential negotiations might centre; seems like Scotland might have the stronger hand in those areas.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭ beggars_bush


    The naval base at scapa flow would be a very big bargaining chip.

    Scotland has been pillaged for its resources for centuries by England.

    Wood, coal, fish, gas, oil, water, wind



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    First opinion poll is out via TheScotsman, and is behind a paywall, hence the link via TheJournal. Most Scots (53%) are against an October 2023 referendum, which is interesting. Would that have an effect on how someone might vote then? Although in regards to the actual Yes/No question...

    The Scotsman poll, carried out by Savanta ComRes, found that 44% of those questioned support independence, while 46% are opposed, both down 1% from a survey last month, while 10% were undecided, which was up three percentage points.

    When don’t knows were removed, 49% said they would vote Yes, while 51% said they would vote No, which was unchanged.

    So I'm right in thinking TheScotsman is a Unionist paper, yes? To have the division already neck-and-neck means there is a LOT to play for here. As was said already, the 2014 campaign started with a Yes at only 30% - clearly the appetite is growing.

    Though I'm already sick to the back teeth of Commenters on various outlets whinging with the extent of "they already got a vote, why keep asking, grrr" - with the Irish outlets flavoured with Lisbon Treaty bores.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    There could be a reluctance from independent leaning voters to having a poll unless it has a high or very high chance of passing since a loss would put the whole question out of reach for at least a generation.

    Clearly if both figures are correct, then some yes voters do not want to be asked yet.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    That's the unknown I suppose. One might think the referendum is too soon, but if push came to shove would those predisposed to a Yes still swing that way?

    And we don't know why those who think it's too soon, think that way. I'd presume the Cost of Living nightmare might make think now is not the time for independence. If the Ukraine war precipitates a harsh winter, then the ref could be dead before the polls opened.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    What would push up the 'yes' vote, to inflate it to the 60% and above?

    Tories are not a force in Scotland, and Labour is much reduced - at least until IndyRef passes and then SNP has a split about to happen.

    Would economics drive it? Or the wish to have Scottish voices determining Scotland's future? Or the desire to get away from the nasty Tory Party? Or perhaps the early re-joining of the EU and the Single Market?

    Scotland is a good size for an independent state, as it is close in size to Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and half the size of Sweden - all Northern European. With the exception of Ireland, all those are members of NATO - I would expect NATO to be accepted by an independent Scotland, and would be a big issue rUK (England) if they were to refuse to join.

    At the end of the day, what would be required to get a yes vote over the line?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    While I mentioned it as a potential stumbling block, it's also possible the Cost Of Living crisis could be weaponised into a compelling reason for Independence. Holyrood could pivot towards an angle that Westminster is preventing Scotland from fully leveraging its energy independence into helping drive down costs. It'd be cynical, and potentially total bullshít, but then fantasy hasn't prevented great political swings in the UK in the past. The "once in a lifetime" emotional argument from 2014 obviously didn't carry the vote over the line; more pragmatism could be the answer this time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭ rock22


    @Sam Russell "At the end of the day, what would be required to get a yes vote over the line?"

    I have a good few relatives in Scotland. It always seems to me that they are extremely cautious around anything new. And , unfortunately, that often means hanging onto the status quo.

    I don't ever get the feeling they particularly want to have an independent Scottish voice, in the way we do in Ireland. But economics and cost of living would impact. I think there is a view that the union with England is a known but independence is a risk.

    So I would think that they need to see that independence gives them freedom of action and more certainty and the in fact the union is the greater risk. For example, they are now out of the EU, and all that implies, because of the union . Highlighting the risks to Scotland tied to an unstable England versus the freedom to create their own future as an independent Scotland. Including , of course, the ability to apply to join the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 927 ✭✭✭ bob mcbob


    At the end of the day, what would be required to get a yes vote over the line?

    In my view it is time.

    Scotland is currently split 50/50 on independence and it basically comes down to a question of identity. The older generation see themselves as British and the younger generation see themselves as Scottish. The current dividing line between the two identities is probably with people in their 50's. Do I think a referendum will happen next year - no but I don't think Sturgeon wants on either but she has to be seen as doing something.

    The demographics are currently only going one way = independence.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    So cost of living, and the ability for Scotland to do what benefits Scotland to reduce inflation, would be one issue that could be used. OK, that sounds possible.

    Joining the EU was used against independence last time, so this time it would be used to advance independence. OK, that sounds possible also.

    So that's two issues.

    Would simply Scottish identity be another?



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    That leads into another pertinent point that potentially kills the Yes vote: age. If what you say is true, the killer could be getting those Young Scots off their ásses and voting. There's a long, depressing consistency with which young people do not vote; I'd be interested to know how the demographics shaped that poll from TheScotsman - or the 2014 result for that matter (though I vaguely recall the < 25 had the highest Yes vote). Again the Cost of Living Crisis might help here; a Scotland built to benefit and help Young Scots instead of Retirees in Cornwall.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Yep. The didn't vote in anywhere near sufficient numbers in 2016, 2017 or 2019. It's possible that permanent liberation from old Etonian rule might raise turnout but I can't see that alone being sufficiently decisive.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,898 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Would simply Scottish identity be another?

    But how strong is Scottish identity when compared to British identity?

    It's very different here in the republic of Ireland.

    There is no sense of British identity.

    There is almost uniquely an Irish identity.

    And that's because we Irish have always been culturally different from the rest of the UK.

    The Romans never came here, we were always considered savages, and since the reformation our religion has been very different.

    All reasons for our centuries of rebellion and eventual independence.

    So back to Scotland.

    Is that Scottish identity strong enough so that they can separate themselves from the British identity ?

    My father was once in a house in the west of Scotland, and he obsesrved that even though the people in the house were speaking Scots Gaelic, they had a union jack table cloth on a small table in the corner and a picture of the queen on the wall.

    You would have no such ambiguity in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,898 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    But on the flip side young people turn out higher in "single issue votes" than they do in regular elections.

    It much easier to have an opinion on a single issue than it is to select a candidate running in an election that may agree with you on some things but not others.

    So in a "single issue vote" like independence then getting the youth out should not be that hard.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    "The Romans never came here, we were always considered savages, and since the reformation our religion has been very different."

    The Romans were never in Scotland either. They built a wall to keep them out - although it was not very high.

    [Or at least one form of history says so.]

    I believe Scotland is quite divided along religious lines - Celtic vs Rangers for example.

    There may be a similar divide for identities between pro-Britain vs Pro Scottish. I have no real knowledge of this though - just suppose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,898 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Religion wise Scotland is mainly Presbyterian.

    They were more radically protestant than England ever were back at the time of the reformation.

    Their reformation was a theological one rather than the political one instigated by Henry VII in England.

    They even went to war with England in the 1600s over it.

    The Celtic v Rangers thing is just a result of more recent (1800s) immigration from Ireland.

    Presbyterians out number Catholics in Scotland 2:1.



  • Registered Users Posts: 927 ✭✭✭ bob mcbob


    The total turnout in 2014 was 84.6% which suggests a high turnout across all age groups



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,492 ✭✭✭✭ A Dub in Glasgo


    Scottish identity at the moment would not push it. However, Scottish identity is in some sort of hybrid state. Look at international sport, to most across the world, it would look like Scotland is already independent as they compete in international tournaments in football and rugby as well as having their football league enter UEFA competitions.

    Imagine if the legal challenge demonstrates to people in the UK that actually it is not a union of countries each sharing their soverignty. A lot of people genuinely think the UK is a union but what sort of union is it when the larger member refuses to let other members change their mind?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Off topic -

    I remember when the FIFA President Blatter got into a bit of a splatter over claims made against him of corruption (he is currently facing trial for corruption in Switzerland - verdict due end of July), a spokesman for the FA (England) said Blatter was signing up teams into FIFA 'which were not even in the UN' - said the England spokesman - remind me when was England ever a member of the UN.

    I have a theory that a 'nation' gets its name in popular culture from one of two sources. Either the name of its soccer team (e. g. France) or from the name it prints on its stamps (e. g. France). We of course confuse the issue, so the country's name is Ireland, but we put Eire on the stamp and 'Republic of Ireland' on the soccer team. Now France is proud to be a republic, just as we are, but they get known as France, while we get stuck with RoI. [Pet hate of mine - particularly the term 'Southern Ireland']



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,898 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    We put Eire on the stamps because it's the Irish name for Ireland.

    The Republic of Ireland Is a FIFA/UEFA construct really.

    When the FAI broke away from the IFA 100 years ago both bodies called their international team Ireland.

    The one in the Free State had to be changed to Irish Free State and subsequently the Republic of Ireland when The Free State became a republic.

    I don't know when the IFA started to use Northern Ireland.

    In reality the IFA have more of a right to call their team Ireland because they are the original association.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    @Fr Tod Umptious

    I think you missed the 'in popular culture' bit. I know the history.

    The UK do not have their name on their stamps - they just have a silhouette of the monarch. Probably they found 'The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland' would not fit on either a stamp or a scoreboard. :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭ beggars_bush


    Will England have to return the stone of destiny?



  • Registered Users Posts: 44,121 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Nice Guy


    I watched Question Time from Inverness last night and it was a pleasant surprise to hear such a pro-Independence crowd. Normally, they appear to overload these audiences with Tories (there was a Tory 'activist' asking a question at one point but he was identified).

    Starmer, meanwhile, is ruling out a potential alliance with the SNP:

    This might go down well in England but I'm not sure it will in Scotland.

    💙

    💛



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Labour under Starmer being pro Brexit, anti IndyRef2, anti SNP deal - just like the Tories.

    I can see how many seats the two major English parties will get in Scotland - about the same as they get in NI - another place where democracy is denied.

    So the MPs in Westminster, with neither major party having a single MP in Scotland, they will claim they speak for Scotland and the Scottish people by not getting even a sniff at a democratic vote on Independence from Westminster.

    I think there is a word for that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,503 ✭✭✭✭ BonnieSituation


    How tone-deaf can you be. Mind boggling. It's literally what FG are doing re SF. Madness.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,503 ✭✭✭✭ BonnieSituation


    But it's a "whole of a UK" vote. So we're always led to believe.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,230 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Some of the QT clips really show a disgruntled Scottish audience, a bit done with Anglo-centric parties, especially given how consistently they're rejected by the electorate. It was questioned earlier in the thread that there was any correlation between the 2014 independence and 2016 Brexit referendum, but it came up multiple times from the audience - the Scots clearly see a link




  • Registered Users Posts: 44,121 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Nice Guy


    First time Yes has been ahead this year and the first poll taken after Sturgeon's announcement.

    On the timetable:

    Those strongly opposed are likely to be staunch No voters, so I doubt the timetable will be much of a factor in things. It's all to play for and the campaign over the next 12 months will be all key.

    💙

    💛



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭ eire4


    I think the idea it is a voluntary union will be very much exposed as not so much when Scotland is refused its second referendum. It is very clearly then a coerced union not a voluntary one. That will only help the yes vote IMHO. I think the official SNP line that it will be October 19th 2022 is just a leverage point IMHO and I highly doubt the referendum when it comes (and it will) will not be at a later date.



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