Tomorrow should be interesting. Unionists already dismissing it as a 'pretendyref'.
Well if it goes ahead, it'll be on 19 October 2023; interesting times ahead.
Sadly, I don't see it. Seems to rely on the ruling of the UK supreme court and I don't see them permitting it. I think she wins either way as she can portray Scotland as a hostage of England and keep relying on independence as a vote winner.
Well, it depends on the outcome of a IndyRef2.
If it is lost, it is lost for a generation. She would need to be certain of winning it - but with the main English parties wholly and utterly opposed to it, it will be dirty games and fake issues arraigned against it - so it would need to be odds on going into it.
Has she got the numbers?
Plebiscite election in 2024 it is then
I think Sturgeon has played her hand well. She's made clear things have to be done legally and democratically. If the courts give the go ahead, all well and good; if they don't, treat the next general election as a plebiscite for Scottish independence.
How so? If she wins then it doesn't make Scottish Independence a reality.
This has to be it. If this doesn't get a Yes you'd have to imagine that's another ref dead for 20 years at least. Does put the SNP in a weird position then, having twice had independence rejected - yet remained Scotland's dominant party across that period. Indeed got stronger at the expense of the main UK parties
Poll numbers are not strong enough. It needs to be over 55% or more with 10% undecided to be sure.
Any less and it is too risky.
Seeing as the last campaign started with independence at 30%, you'd imagine it will get there with ease seeing how things have gone since 2014.
It made it a reality for Ireland but no it does not make it so without bloodshed
No, it took a significant amount of bloodshed followed by a war weary empire grudgingly granting limited autonomy over most of the island culminating in chicanery by de Valera abusing the Statue of Westminster. Not remotely the same thing.
Sturgeon's only legal route to independence is a referendum granted by Westminster.
You cannot assert that as a fact yet
Just as you cannot assert otherwise. It's up to the supreme court. Not a great strategy.
I tend to agree at least in terms of the yes vote getting above 50%. The intransigent behaviour of the Tories at Westminster and the realities of brexit will be key I feel in that regard.
I have not asserted anything is legal or otherwise
If it ends up going the general election route, I hope the SNP commit to withdrawing their MPs from Westminster. It would be a very powerful image to have all those empty seats illustrating perfectly how Scotland has checked out.
We are also on our lonesome on the Atlantic here in the Eu. We certainly could do with a close ally with the same problem, to a large degree that was England previously.
Power is moving ever Eastward in Europe.
The pro-independence campaign strategy will want to really ramp up the positivity here; not like 2014's version wasn't but "Project Fear" will have the knives sharpened from the get-go. Presumably, the Cost of Living Crisis is going to be a big factor here: appealing to Scots that Scotland has the resources to reduce bills, if allowed.
I wonder will the red herring of Devo-Max come back into focus from Westminister. The "love bomb" of tunnels across munitions dumps didn't exactly set the world alight - the obvious, logical counter offer will presumably be even more devolved powers. But then, who'd believe Boris Johnson's pledges?
But who says they are going to be an ally ?
We saw from the Rockall fishing drama a few years ago that it's not a given.
Scotland could very well become a strong competitor of Ireland's for the likes of FDI that we have thrived on.
That could be any country. Ireland staking its medium to long term economic future on Forever FDI is going to eventually bite us in the àss. We have no control over other country's priorities.
As likely would be Scotland pairing with Ireland (and Malta[?]) as the North Eastern, English Speaking clique within the EU. Plenty of shared history and potential for cooperative growth if relationships were cordial enough between Dublin and Edinburgh. Especially if the North ever joins the rest of the island.
Denmark, Finland, Scotland (independent) and Ireland (UI) would all be equivalent size and GDP, and would naturally find the majority of their interests and concerns would align quite neatly, and could act as a bulwark against their larger fellow member states, (France, Germany, Spain, Italy) and against the eastern recipient member states (Poland, Hungary, Chechia, Slovenia, etc.).
FDI is a temporary issue that benefits Ireland now, but could well shift eastwards as the economies shift in capabilities. The USA FDI companies could well be attracted back home, or to other locations as they are driven by tax, available workers with appropriate skills, and not be the weather in Ireland, or Ireland health service or housing costs.
Territorial waters could well be an issue for a newly independent Scotland, particularly wrt Rockall - in the past, England has already laid claim to some of Scotland's waters. [citation needed]
Berwick on Tweed might also be another issue.
Bit early to be looking for conflict with an independent Scotland - it will not happen for at least a decade.
They would be no more of an ally than England was in the EU, and often they were far from an ally but there are common interests.
Why wouldn't they be?
Would it be a problem if they were and aren't the challenges in Europe going forward even bigger problems than that.
This whole thing of people calling out the SNP for claiming a mandate for a 2nd ref with less than 50% of the vote is such hypocrisy considering cameron claimed a mandate for the brexit ref with only 36.% of the vote
Dominic Raab is not the sharpest, here he is stating why the Tories intend to deny the people in Scotland another vote
I think it's better for us if Scotland is hobbled by staying part of the UK. They'd just be another competitor.
Besides, i'm not convinced the Scots would vote for independence in any case. At the very best they have always been lukewarm on it and I've never seen a real enthusiasm for it among most Scots. Not exactly taking up arms, are they? There just doesnt seem to be a big emotional argument. Which would lead you to question whether it's a deserving case for independence at all.
Up to them at the end of the day.
Isn’t it supposed to be an advisory referendum?
On precedent, 52% is plenty enough to be decisive. And implemented.
😜
The 52% was for the actual vote.
If the SNP were to lose, they would be finished as a party - they would gradually collapse.
Their aim should be to be certain of victory - not hope for a bounce. Reliable poll nos above 55% to 60% with nay sayers at under 40% is what they need. Less than that and failure is possible. The other side plays dirty.
Those figures are pretty eye watering when spoken aloud. I think we can already see where potential negotiations might centre; seems like Scotland might have the stronger hand in those areas.
The naval base at scapa flow would be a very big bargaining chip.
Scotland has been pillaged for its resources for centuries by England.
Wood, coal, fish, gas, oil, water, wind
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