Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Cut off from the rest of the EU?

Bit dramatic!!

People traveling from RoI already have to show ID to enter the rest of the EU as we're not part of Shengen, does that mean we're not already cut off? Would checking goods from RoI entering EU really cut us off?

What would we be cut off from exactly?

Its not in the hands of a 3rd country.

This thread is really turning into a masturbatory session for deluded Irexiters.

I can't believe we still have people believing that there's going to be a border between Ireland and NI

I hope you're right. I'm not an Irexiter by any means but if the UK renege on the protocol and leave a hole in the SM, I fear that it may be a choice between a land border or a Celtic Sea border, at least temporarily.

Yep, ultimately the EU is just a bit bigger and more important a peace project than NI even though politicians in NI may dispute this with their seemingly boundless arrogance and self importance + victimhood.

The EU members will not let UK delegitimise (maybe destroy) the EU single market and lower its value to members (which is IMO the high level aim here), and if Ireland won't protect it for sake of NI and refuse to impose either customs formalities (paperwork) on NI goods or any physical checks on them, the other members will eventually be forced to start doing them on goods coming from this country sooner or later. The UK will take that as a lesser "win" of sorts for them (it draws Ireland back towards them and also damages the EU badly in a different manner).

Two things on this:-

1. Even with (temporary or otherwise) physical checks on goods between RoI and mainland EU Ireland will still be as attractive a place to invest for exporters as it is today. Physical checks will be risk based and don't equate to customs formalities or tariffs etc. A sample of shipments will be pulled over for checking which, unless you have a bogus load on board, will be nothing more than a minor inconvenience and the chances that a truck shipping a load from a blue chip medical device company like Boston Scientific or IT components from Intel will be pulled over is negligible.
2. The statement that it's madness that a country's border is in the hands of a third country doesn't reflect the reality that borders are shared and not the property of just one of the two countries either side of the border. For borders to be effective requires both countries to check movements of people and goods flowing across (in either direction) but given the dilemma Brexit has caused viz viz NI BoJo & Co are quite happy to change the NIP to effectively remove the Irish Sea border and completely ignore the NI / RoI border thus passing the responsibility for securing the EU market squarely onto RoI and the EU. It is a complete abdication of their international responsibilities but we all know by now that isn't a concern for them and they also feel that if the French don't secure their border to prevent migrants crossing the channel into the UK why should the UK secure either the Irish Sea border or the NI / RoI border in order to protect the EU?

Not sure mainland EU ports will require any additional infrastructure to spot check Irish trucks. They already have infrastructure in place to check UK trucks so if anything I'd say if two ferry's arrive into Cherbourg at the same time, one from Rosslare in Ireland and one from Fishguard in the UK the Irish trucks will be directed through the checking infrastructure as a priority and the UK trucks will just have to wait. The French authorities might stop 1 in 100 Irish trucks to check it's load but in a scenario where the UK were foisting this situation on a fellow EU member like RoI I'd say the ratio of UK trucks being stopped and thoroughly searched (delayed) could increase significantly.

Also, whereas Irish trucks exiting mainland EU into RoI wouldn't require any outbound checks whatsoever (no risk from dodgy UK/NI goods entering the EU in that direction) UK trucks exiting could have additional checks applied to them causing further delays and supply chain issues for the UK.

If they go all the way through with unilaterally ripping up the NIP BoJo and Co will find they have over played their hand. It will take time, possibly a number of years but slowly the EU will squeeze the life out of the UK supply chains until they return to honouring the treaty commitments they made.

If the UK rip up the trade agreement with the EU the there will be checks either on the NI/ROI border or the celtic Sea.

Lots of things will happen in that case. Including a trade war between the UK/EU.

What the checks will look like and where they go between those two options is not something we can say with certainty. What we can say with certainty is the EU will look to protect the SM and preserve the peace as best they can. ROI will have a huge input into all decisions taken.

If we get a decision foisted on us and no material trade war with the UK erupts then I will say to the Frog and any other posters in agreement with them that they were right all along.

Plenty. I live in the ‘triborder’ area with the Belgian, German, French borders each less than 20-odd miles away from us in Luxembourg.

On any given day, whether in Luxembourg, Belgium to the West, France to the South or Germany to the East, there are flying customs ad hoc checkpoints on motorway rest areas, main arteries ‘border’ crossings and industrial estates. With trucks <from everywhere EU and not (Turkish)> stopped, doors opened, and little men in blue with peaked caps swarming over them.

The quality of intelligence must be second to none, an’all. Barely a week goes by, without some French, German or Belgian citizens (several) getting stopped on the road side, checked and arrested by customs for smuggling booze and tobacco products (in quantities exceeding personal consumption levels quite significantly) out of Luxembourg.

Usual spot nearest us is the Lidl car park off the D16 at the entrance to Audun-Le-Tiche (FR), Google map it if you’re bored.