Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251683#Comment_119251683

Actually the choice has always been Ireland's way or an economically crippled international pariah UK hurtling towards break up & bankruptcy.

For the EU to allow a small dependent state to break its treaties with EU would inevitably invite disproportionate pain as a response - pour decourager les autres and prove to treaty partners keep their agreements

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252010#Comment_119252010

We are the EU and we don't want a hard border on the island.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252122#Comment_119252122

Yes but it's not a "no go" it is definitely one of the possible outcomes. Far more possible than a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252122#Comment_119252122

Yes, and as an EU member state it's also Ireland's responsibility to protect the EU border. Ireland may not want an hard border, but that decision is not for Ireland to make and if it's pushed onto Ireland by for example the Australian hormone beef import in the new FTA (or Canada for that matter) they will be tasked to implement the controls like any other EU country.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252010#Comment_119252010

It is a no go. It would instantly end all EU and US support for anything against the UK because we would be choosing to break the GFA for economic reasons. If we do that, we don't deserve support from anyone, and would be hypocrites for telling the UK to do internal checks to protect what we just break anyway.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252263#Comment_119252263

Blame would be towards the UK for breaching the agreement which was designed to protect the GFA

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252263#Comment_119252263

Who is this "we" shte. We as in Ireland/EU will not be breaking anything. We would be responding to the UK breaking the NIP.

A land border may be the only option because a sea border within the EU is certainly a no go.

We don't have EU support we are the EU.

"They made me do it" isn't a great excuse for breaking the GFA.

What I always see suggested on here is random checks on trucks and I simply don't see why we wouldn't just do that on ferries so we can maintain the GFA and not introduce any notion of Ireland choosing economy over peace, because that's what would happen.

Put every French customs officer on ferries to and from Ireland and let the UK crumble vs. Break the GFA and blame the UK.

And give me a break with the "We are the EU" nonsense. I'm not some Brexiteer.

How can Ireland expect Holland and France to hurt their economies in a trade war, because Ireland doesn't want to hurt its economy? We'd be asking other countries to take the pain while also breaking the GFA.

It's bananas anyone thinks it could ever happen.

Seth Brundle

"They made me do it" isn't a great excuse for breaking the GFA.

The only one that would have caused the breaking the GFA is the British government. This is clear for all to see.

Anything done by the Irish government would simply be a reaction to that.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252315#Comment_119252315

Nope not "they made us do it" rather "they broke it"

We would not blame the UK the UK would be guilty.

BlitzKrieg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250817#Comment_119250817

Are you subscribed to businesspost so you can share the full article? We got the bit thats teased but not the full article of where and when Sean Kelly said this. I'd like to know its not someone playing silly journalism for a dramatic headline.

EDIT: In fact they dont seem to be promoting that article at all, it's not on their twitter or facebook either.

Considering absolutely no other news source is running this quote in any form, means I doubt until I see the full article or collabrating second article.

I've searched his twitter and could find no link to such a statement from him, the most he shared was the RTE report on him being made lead author in the draft legislation response: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0619/1305728-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol/

Where he does give a very different response to what the business post is indicating. Now maybe things have changed in the EU between june 19th and june 25th but best I can do is tweet Mr Kelly himself to respond to the headline.

If Ireland takes that approach, that would be the end of it as far as the EU were concerned. The outer border of the EU is protected. There would be no reason for mainland EU to hurt themselves in a trade war because there would be nothing to gain from such a trade war.

That isn't even throwing Ireland under a bus. It's Ireland choosing to police the border and the problem's finally gone after 6+ years.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252402#Comment_119252402

I looked myself and couldn't find anything either. Annoying to not be able to read it. Anyone here with a somewhat respectable Twitter should ping him and ask him.

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252010#Comment_119252010

Internal land borders. Where ?

Lars 😀

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252473#Comment_119252473

I didn't say internal.

The EU has massive land borders on its eastern edge.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252433#Comment_119252433

It hurts us because we would have to accept whatever dodgy hormone beef and substandard drugs that the UK decide for us.

There is no such thing as mainland EU. That's just the kind of BS half in half out image the UK had of itself in Europe.

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252577#Comment_119252577

These borders had lots of paperwork and long lorry queues before the Ukraine war. Can only be crossed in a few places.

The NI/Ireland border has to be open.

Being 500+ km it's also technically difficult to keep closed even if you would want to do it.

External EU land borders even to very friendly and SM member Switzerland often create long lorry queues.

Lars 😀

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252724#Comment_119252724

Whats your point ?

Why does the Irish border "have to be open" everywhere as opposed to Poland ?

No one in the EU wants the border which is why we agreed to Johnson's "oven ready" deal. But if the UK break the deal and put the border up we will have no choice.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252456#Comment_119252456

Screen shot from the SBP eReader

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252861#Comment_119252861

Why? Are you for real?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252990#Comment_119252990

Why what ?

I don't understand what you are asking me.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119251683#Comment_119251683

The other option is a border poll to unify Ireland and then the border will be fully down the Irish sea.

If the EU legal actions take 12 to 18 months, that would allow enough time for a referendum campaign

Nate--IRL--

That assumes a cooperative UK.

Nate

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252473#Comment_119252473

The border in Cyprus is legally "internal" as northern Cyprus is an occupied territory. EU law does not extend to Northern Cyprus, despite it being legally a part of the Republic of Cyprus.

No, I don't for a moment believe Ireland could end up like Northern Cyprus, outside the single market and customs union. Cyprus's division predates their accession. The UK has too much to lose and the republic would implement checks at the land border before we'd even contemplate leaving the single market. Don't see any of this happening though.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119253019#Comment_119253019

I'm really struggling to understand your logic, B.

The UK-EU trade contains provisions for one side violating it. This includes the protocol. There will not be a hard border on the island of Ireland for the simple reason that the Tories will not violate the deal. They can't afford to or they would have done so by now. Remember all that talk of Article 16? Same thing. All talk designed to appeal to Express readers.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119253057#Comment_119253057

And a vote going in favor of unification when NI see no real pain from the decision (since the border has to remain open no matter what according to some posters the impact of that would be non existent) triggering a reason for people to reconsider their world view.

fly_agaric

Kind of worrying if that's the thinking in FG.

They'd do well to remember their mandate is for the good of this country, its people and their future prosperity and wellbeing, not for Northern Ireland, not for preserving a scared cow Good Friday Agreement (which the British govt. now have contempt for, except as a rhetorical prop to sell their policies), not for keeping all nice and "diplomatic" with the big truculent neighbour next door at any cost.

Talk of "diplomatic solutions" and that the UK are "missing the point" etc. is delusional and ignoring reality as the UK is doing this on purpose with full understanding and possible end goal(s) in mind.

Their (UK gov) thinking about all this is very, very old empire that hasn't gotten over its hangups about rights, where its writ should run + the respect it is due from others who are lesser (like us) and should be able to be bullied with impunity, sort of Russian really.

e.g. see this opinion piece, which calls it for what it is. Thankfully some of our EU neighbours may be twigging what is going on here.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/21/britain-russia-ukraine-europe-northern-ireland-protocol-brexit

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252894#Comment_119252894

I read the article twice and I can't see where he says checks on goods coming from Ireland are a possibility. He could equally be talking about checks at the Irish land border, indeed to me it reads more like this is what he's talking about.

If the UK goes postal and eliminates all checks then I see no immediate alternative to this sad reality either. We cannot risk our agri-food exports being treated like stuff from GB. The Northern Irish will lose the benefit of the protocol and a hard border is inevitable. They then must really choose which market they want to be inside, which country they want to be a part of.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119253091#Comment_119253091

I completely agree with you.

Someone was musing earlier about what would happen if the deal was pulled and said the hard border is a "no go" and is trying to say we should leave the SM. I am saying the hard border is more likely than leaving the SM. I'm not advocating for a hard border.

But yes like you I believe it won't get that far.