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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    If the UK break the protocol/trade agreement with the EU then there will be a trade war as the UK have broken the existing trade agreement.

    In that scenario to protect the SM integrity the EU will need to implement checks with the open UK border ie NI. If the Republic say we don't want a land border the EU will say OK the default border will be the Celtic sea.

    I'm not following your logic were you think 'blame' or 'GFA' come into it really. It will just be a series of systamatic reactions to the UKs actions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,598 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh



    Nonsense and faux concern as usual


    You forgot one thing, Sinn Féin will soon be in power and will not allow any dilution of Irish sovereignty in order to appease the British “friends and colleagues” of FFG


    I would say SF would push the EU to ground British planes and be done with it, enforce the protocol from Stormont and go on a tour of the US about highlighting British nationalism/imperialism


    We both know Britain will back down, they always do



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,598 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    Séan Kelly is a rural Blueshirt - pro Eoghan Harris, Tan commemoration, etc - anything to get his name in the paper


    Why would we change our law/arrangements because Britain broke an international treaty, then expect the same people who broke the international treaty to be receptive to diplomacy MEP Kelly?

    Diplomacy for 6 years has not worked.


    Kermit is right about one to thing, FFG are so used to being on auto-pilot that they merely accept British sleights and react, rather than actually whip up and lead the EU to force Britain into its international obligations, no doubt helped by their fear of a re-unified Ireland


    Get ready for FFG and their media to blame SF when Brexit Britain continues to damage relationships and the Irish economy when they are in power despite FFG doing nought for years only begging for more “diplomacy”



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Can't tell if that's satire or not.

    How would Holland and France hurt their economies but having a border around the 6 counties ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,373 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    We have spent significant political capital thanks to the behaviour of our neighbour telling the US and the world there can never be a border on the island of Ireland.

    Are we suddenly going to do a 180 and set one up ourselves?

    At the end of the day I just think it is appalling that we are supposed to be a member of a club that is powerful and gives protection yet here we are depending on the votes of British parliamentarians to decide our future.

    We are not getting the protection we should be getting. We have had nice words but it's not enough.

    I'm surprised by Sean Kelly's statement but there is no way a Fine Gael MEP is saying that without the approval of the party. I worry this is the thin end of the wedge now and we'll be buttered up over the next few months.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's already been proven he didn't say what you accuse him of. Practically every word a lie just like every time before



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,373 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    He did say exactly what I have said. There is a screenshot of the article above.

    He is telling the truth, which I welcome, but it's not getting the coverage it should be and that's what the government intends. There will be more of this in the next few weeks. It will be drip, drip. Testing the waters.

    They can come back to us in a few months and say "we told the public".

    Decoded: "We are going to fix the problem by forcing Ireland out of the single market"

    Post edited by Kermit.de.frog on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I presume you only read the headline. Not surprising but if you actually read the full article, its not long. You'll see the headline is click bait and he is not quoted I'm the article sating anything remotely resembling the headline.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    What constitutional mechanism exists to force Ireland out of the single market? Source please.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,373 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If the protocol bill passes in to legislation our position in the SM is untenable. It will leave a gaping hole. It's not a question of the EU forcing Ireland out. It will just be the default position. France, Netherlands etc will most likely put up checks immediately between Ireland and themselves.

    I see Johnson being wined and dined at the G7 talking about Russia. His own government is in the process of ripping up an international treaty.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    None of the other single market members would countenance kicking another out, even if it were legally possible, which it isn't. Why? Because they'd forever be looking over their own shoulders if it were possible. If it ever happened it would signal the end of the European Union and too many hundreds of millions of people in the EU would consider that a very bad thing.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    There is no such mechanism. You're just looking to see your own country suffer for amusement.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,373 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    You keep mentioning a mechanism. This is nonsense. It is a simple statement of fact that if there is a hole in the SM it's going to have to be filled and there are only two choices. Either it's in the Irish Sea or it's in the Celtic Sea between us and the continent.

    Take your pick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The UK tearing up the trade agreement they negotiated is not the check mate you seem to think it is. But you've gone blind from pulling yourself off round the clock to Express headlines. So there's no use debating with you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,373 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Ok, whatever. It will be terrible for the country but at least I'll have the consolation when the "I told you so" moment arrives 😊

    Let's see what happens over the next few months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,942 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Why would it be a consolation to be right if something terrible happens?



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "Few months" but you told us your I told you so moment was going to come on a Monday last month and back in January and before that periodically for 6 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,598 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    You have not been paying attention,

    We have all chosen the Irish Sea option



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,268 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    It's easy know Kermit has been here when the thread explodes for a few days!

    Anyway, the last place that there'll be checks is between Ireland and the continent. That's the EU putting up a barrier in itself to placate the UK. Won't happen. If checks have to go in, then unfortunately they'll be on the border with NI. That though, will be many years away with many tantrums, legal cases, bitching and moaning too



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Regarding Kermit's headmelt arising from the citation attributed to Sean Kelly, I'm surprised that no-one has picked up on the more meaningful paragraphs at the end of the SBP story:

    "... the new EU legislation would consolidate the retaliatory powers of the European Commission in the event that the British government passed its bill and activated the powers under it to override parts of the protocol.

    ... there will be clear regulations here on what restrictions on trade [between the UK and the EU] will have to come in ... It will say these are the measures and this is how it will happen"


    "By passing this pre-emptive regulation, we will have in place exactly what is going to happen ... It will only then be a matter of implementing it."

    So Kermit's getting his wish: the EU will, after all, be laying down in front of the British people, or anyone else who cares to take an interest, exactly what consequences they'll face if their government breaches this particular international law, and the speed with which those punitive measures come into effect. Will the British people ever read them, or take heed of them? Probably not.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Glad to see you're still here.

    Essentially, what we all knew all along is indeed true. The EU didn't just negotiate a deal with the UK naively assuming that a man who has lied to the British people, the sovereign, Parliament and every woman he's ever touched would just adhere in good faith. There are provisions for the UK reneging and it's refreshing to see that highlighted.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    The problem is the people who would read it are, in general, already well aware of the consequences. The people who will see the Telegraph headline of "EU punishing the UK" are as well set in their mind. The UK government as we've already seen are incapable of thinking beyond what to order for lunch while standing at the bar, let alone read or listen to advise from civil service etc. In a way I'm wondering if Trump was not more well read up than the UK government appears to be because at least he'd read the daily brief because they filled it with his name in it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,488 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    If your weather forecasts are anything to go by your political forecasts don't hold much weight.

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,257 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The EU were able to get a decision from the ECJ in a hurry when they needed it while May was having difficulty making up her mind, so if they need the decision on the NI Protocol in a hurry, and its lack of implementation to date, they will get that as well.

    If the EU take action in the form of sanctions, it will not be in the form of checks on Irish trade. It will be to attack the UK's soft underbelly, and that means attack the choke points of their international trade. Read that as - City of London, Dover, airlines.

    The handling (and delay) of British tourists and British residents in the EU would be a good way of getting the British (English) population riled up. So long queues at passport control and customs clearance would certainly make an unmissable point.

    The EU will follow the Sergeant Major's advice to recruits - 'First I asks you, then I tells you, then I makes you!' We are getting close to stage three of that advice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I enjoy their weather contributions. They're thought out and backed up by data. It's a fickle science though so no blame for the outcome being different to the original fore ast.

    Difference here is their contributions are pure pony. The sum total of which amounts to the original Brexit war cry of 'They need us more than we need them' crap. Even though its dressed up up to appear different.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,516 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    I don't think Sean Kelly has said anything we have not been saying on here. If push comes to shove we could be forced out of the SM as checks will need to be done. But our hope, and it seems like his as well, is that the actions of the EU, should the UK actually pull the trigger, will lead to a quick backdown from the UK due to the consequences they will face.


    I will note as well that you have said we are in the process of being forced outside of the EU already. I am sorry but for me that means some checks and customs posts to check goods heading to the SM in Ireland which is not happening. You seem to be throwing a lot of mud at the wall to see what sticks and when one of your predictions come true, a possibility, then you will claim to have been right all along. That is very much like JRM claiming the UK should ignore forecasts from the OBR because they are never 100% correct, failing to account for the fact that actions has been taken in the meantime to change the course to avoid those same predictions coming true.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't think Sean Kelly has said anything we have not been saying on here. If push comes to shove we could be forced out of the SM as checks will need to be done

    I do not think that is true.

    Ultimately for now, there is not a massive risk of divergence with the UK (if they did this in 5-10 years time it would be a different story). I suspect very slow attempts to enforce some kind of check for goods coming from NI that originated in GB will start, while very quickly a veritable blockade will go up in France - which has more or less been flagged already when the EU mentions they are putting the TCA at risk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    Ultimately Ireland would stick a border between it & NI.

    Aside from the fact that Ireland did so previously if Ireland failed to do so, it would simply be submitting itself to British rule - permanently.

    There is no chance that if a border becomes necessary (as a consequence of British reneging), it won't be implemented between Ireland & NI.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭54and56


    The GFA was constructed on the basis that both UK and RoI were members of the EU (Single Market, Customs Union etc) thus enabling the total removal of any form of hard border between RoI and NI.

    Brexit (in particular the hard Brexit chosen by BoJo and Frosty etc) removed that cornerstone of the GFA requiring a border to go somewhere.

    BoJo and co proposed and the EU agreed for there to be a border in the Irish Sea thus ensuring no need for a border between RoI and NI.

    Turns out BoJo and Co were duplicitous and in fact only agreed to the Irish Sea border on the basis that they intended to renege on it as quickly as possible, see Ian Paisley Junior's confirmation of same.

    BoJo and Co are now, in true Perfidious Albion style, reneging on the deal they agreed and planning to pass legislation which will effectively remove the Irish Sea border as the impact will mean goods can flow into NI freely without any meaningful scrutiny.

    Should this come to pass the RoI will be unable to prevent entry of non-compliant products into its market and thus into the EU.

    RoI will then have to choose between implementing a border with NI in order to secure the EU market boundary or allow an open border to continue with NI but accept that the remainder of the EU will have to impose checks on goods being shipped out of RoI into EU in order to prevent the total free flow of dodgy goods from the UK flooding into mainland EU via the open border between NI and RoI.

    If the outcome of the UK NIPB legislation is either a hard border between NI and RoI (unlikely) or restricted free movement of goods between RoI and mainland EU that will only be a temporary measure until the EU response ramps up to a point where the UK Govt is forced (or pretends to choose) to re-instate the Irish Sea border and adhere to the agreement it signed up to or there is a change of UK Govt and an amended NIP is negotiated which also sees a return to the Irish Sea border as that is the only solution which preserves the GFA and sees the promoters of Brexit take responsibility for their actions rather than the diplomatic vandalism they are currently pursuing whereby they initiate Brexit and cause havoc but take zero responsibility for the consequences.




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