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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-05-2022 9:48pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Summer 2022.
If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.
Thanks
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Spring has ended on an unsettled and chilly note after a mostly dry and warm Spring. How is the first week of Summer 2022 shaping up?
The coming week will be unsettled at times but not overly wet. High pressure will try to ridge in over the weekend but flabby and slow moving areas of low pressure are spinning slowly from southern Greenland into the north Atlantic and heading towards Ireland at times. It is uncertain how much rain will fall over the coming week but currently it looks about 10 to 20mm. These low pressures will spoil any chance of decent ridging over us and keep us generally cloudy and showery at times, but some spells of sunshine also likely.
Temperatures up to Friday will generally between 11 and 16C, cooler than average. Temperatures will warm up slightly over the weekend to more average values for the time of year, generally 14 to 18C.
Saturday and Sunday may be the driest days of the week with only a few light showers across the south and south-west.
The early part of next week a ridge will try to get going but a big area of low pressure looks to have Ireland's name on it and will roll in from off the Atlantic as we enter midweek.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday around average generally 14 to 18C.
Rainfall generally 10 to 20mm and possibly drier towards the south and south-west.
Not a great start to summer but at least it should be a bit milder than the past week has been.
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Been a real head scratcher trying to keep up with the models changing from run to run over the last week. Very hard to get any consistent idea of how warm it is going to be but trend is decent enough for many over the weekend. With a slow pivoting shallow low with occluded fronts and short wave troughs like what is moving across and close to Ireland over the coming days and nearby Hp on the fringes very hard to pinpoint temps and rainfall. Cloud looks to be a feature with sunny spells, Temperatures should be decent enough for many especially if we get some decent breaks in the cloud. Maybe a squeeze in the isobars at times giving some stronger winds locally especially the E. The frontal rain never materialized for Monday, bit of a difference in the models for temperatures, all depends on cloud cover but could get from the mid to high teens and currently looks staying mostly dry with some scattered showers perhaps.
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Little change in the forcast for the week ahead, it will remain largely unsettled.
The cool weather over the past week will continue for most of us for another few days with this weekend being chilly in eastern and southern half of the country where temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens. it will be mildest in the far west and north-west of the country.
Saturday will be very cool across the south with temperatures ranging 10 to 14C with temperatures 14 to 17C across the rest of the country. A few places like Shannon might make it to 18 or 19C.
It will be mainly dry in the northern 2/3rds of the country with southern areas prone to scattered showers keeping things very cool there.
Sunday will be a cooler day generally with temperatures 11 to 14C in many places and some heavy bursts of rain across the south, east and some midland areas.
It will be warmer in the far west and north-west but could be cool at times there too if it remains cloudy with showers still possible in those areas.
Monday and Tuesday should see a brief respite from the unsettled conditions as a ridge will settle things down until Tuesday evening and it may turn a little warmer with winds going into the south-west.
Temperatures on Monday generally 16 to 19C, possibly 20C in the north-west.
Tuesday could be the warmest day of the year so far with temperatures 19 to 20 or 21C across most of the country.
Turning much more unsettled from Wednesday with a big area of low pressure just off our west coast will move slowly eastwards and bring cooler temperatures and plenty of rain into the second half of next week and possibly beyond.
It is unclear how wet it could become next week with current estimates between 30 and 85mm of rainfall throughout next week. This may change as the models are struggling a bit with so many little and large areas of low pressure into the mix.
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The week becomes increasingly unsettled as we get near to the weekend, areas of LP getting mobile, Frontal rain later in the week and thundery looking with the charts currently showing LP's with cool upper air over us aiding instability. Models showing temps mid to high teens first half of the week and from Thurs getting a bit lower, some areas under the rain and cloud struggling to get up to the mid teens. Hard to know where will get the better temps, all depends on the track of the LP's.
Models currently showing a wet and windy day on Thurs, remains to be seen how windy. Plenty of weather to follow over the weekend it would seem at this stage.
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Looking fairly wet on Tues, becoming windy late Tues into Weds morning and and a breezy / windy day on Weds with showers or longer spells of rain. Temps look decent for many on Tues and falling back a bit on Weds. Some CAPE available on Weds so a few big showers about ,will see if there is any chance of a bit of lightning.
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That time of the year again , the remnants of Tropical Storm Alex making for a track between Iceland and Scotland and then filling and slowing down . Currently and probably will stay well off the coast bringing some blustery and gusty winds in over Ireland Fri and Sat. Showery with some longer spells of rain in the W but totals at this stage don't look too much for now. Seeing temps into the high teens and even touching 20C or so in the Eastern half of the country away from windward coastal counties. Breezy and perhaps blustery on Atlantic coasts later Thursday
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Remnants of Alex out in the Atlantic, big wind field with showers streaming in on a fresh wind tomorrow and homegrown convection possibly producing some heavy localized showers and could have thunderstorms, wouldn't be surprised to hear of some hail showers. High teens to low 20's in the Eastern half of the country over the next couple of days, temps down a bit in windward coastal counties, again looks like plenty of sunny spells, Sunday showing little rainfall.
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Still a wide range of scenarios for Fridays heat potential. Arpege 12z looks good with mid 20s widely across the country away from north-western coasts and possibly high 20s across the south and south. This looks great but I feel this is an absolute best case scenario and probably won't verify.
The GFS is downgrading the heat potential for Friday with cooler air taking over most parts by Friday afternoon with only traces of warmth left in the far east and south. Nowhere nearly as warm as the Arpege with temperatures generally 14 to 20C, maybe a shade higher in the south and south-east.
Icon is similar to the Arpege with mid twenties away from the north-west.
UKV very similar to Icon and Arpege
edit: ECM similar to the above and GEM a bit more widespread with the warmth.
Post edited by Gonzo on7 -
A truly glorious day today across the entire country it seems with reports of blue skies and strong sunshine in what has been the first nationwide day of summer warmth and sunshine.
A bit of a blip tomorrow with plenty of cloud cover and a few spots of drizzle but this should break up as the afternoon goes on, however sunshine amounts will be very limited compared to today. Temperatures generally 15 to 18C, perhaps a degree or so higher if there are any decent sunny spells towards evening.
Wednesday should be a decent day with plenty of sunny spells and temperatures warming up to similar values to Monday. Temperatures generally 20 to 23C but cooler along coastal regions.
Thursday again very similar but perhaps a touch warmer, up to 24C possible in places if there is decent amount of sunshine on offer. Make the most of the fine weather on Thursday because it won't last into the weekend.
Friday will see a big change to much fresher and more unsettled conditions. A band of rain will cross the country early on Friday morning followed by blustery winds and showers. Temperatures 9 to 13C in eastern areas under that rain band and 12 to 16C elsewhere with clear spells and blusterly showers.
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Tomorrow and Thursday are still on track to be decent with temperatures widely into the low 20s but the temperatures will depend on the sun making a decent appearance. The cloud cover never really broke today so remains to be seen how well we do for sunshine tomorrow. Thursday will probably be the best day for sunshine with mid twenties possible for a short time in the south-east.
Friday may see that rainband a bit later than what was showing yesterday. Eastern areas may get a fine morning but the rain will get there during the afternoon and temperatures should be ok in the first half of Friday. Still doesn't really change the outlook for the weekend which is poor everywhere across Ireland and the UK.
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Yeah the weekend looking particularly unsettled for much of the country. LP forming and deepening over us leading to a lot of rainfall, charts below from the ECM showing the rainfall to Fri and then to Sun at 16.00, ECM leading the way in rainfall it must be said, going by those amounts and looking at the 24 hr hour predictions could easily lead to Yellow warnings in parts especially on top of the hard ground but the other models are showing somewhat less at this stage so it might moderate a bit yet. Variable winds, possibly fairly fresh along the coasts, might get a bit blustery in the eastern half of the country also depending on the track of the Low, some areas near the center will be relatively calm.
Temps look about avg on Fri - mid to high teens in the East , cool Sat and currently looking like only getting up around the mid teens on Sun.
Watching with interest the possibility of thunderstorms over the weekend especially Sunday, could lead to slow moving heavy convective showers , will see if the thunderstorm risk materializes.
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We had a fantastic night of lightning in May 2018 that ended a dry spell, only to be followed by an even drier and warmer spell 😁 took a screenshot of the Met E radar that night as a reminder.
Oct 2017 - July 2018 will be very difficult to beat for interesting / enjoyable weather in my neck of the woods East Cork.
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It depends on which model you look at and this will always change from run to run. The south-east will usually be the driest part of the country and this includes very wet weeks like the coming week, but the south-east could still see 40/50mm of rain in the coming week.
The GFS 14 day precipitation forecast is showing between 150 and 200mm of rain over the next 2 weeks in western areas and between 40 and 90mm of rain elsewhere.
GFS over the next week or so.
There is a chance this precipitation charts will get upgraded as other models are looking wetter than the GFS.
GFS run for Wexford, this looks much wetter than anything we have seen all year so far for the south-east.
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GFS 12z brings less rain to Leinster and south Munster and an almost doubling of rainfall totals in western areas compared to the 6z. Let's see what the next one brings. Regardless still looks wet next week.
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Lots of spread still on the models, ECM showing the SW /S which Met Eireann mentioned tonight after the news, UKMO showing the Northern half of the country quite windy on Saturday, ICON showing very blustery across the country on Saturday, strong along the Atlantic coasts. So a lot of uncertainty yet on where will get the strongest winds and how strong. Deepening area of LP right on our door step , jet doing its bit to help spin it , very hard to predict but will no doubt get clearer nearer the time.
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Dont have readings for today but almost certain over 25mm, looks like we could get another 40 -50mm here in Kerry out by the coast up to Sun night.
Blustery overland tomorrow , windy along the coasts and coastal fringes, some marine gale warnings in place and small craft warnings for tomorrow and small craft warnings in place for Sunday , some of those big convective showers could be gusty.
Will we see Orange rainfall warnings come into effect ?? AROME Hi REs is really going for it, models starting to show some very high toatls in the West
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Some heavy rain forecast later Mon into Tues and again through the day on Weds ( we will stop there for now 😀 ).
LP over us or close by with plenty of frontal rain followed by showers.
Just a rough idea of rainfall accumulations up to Thurs.
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