Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think there is a minority in Russia that have a European outlook in terms of supporting western-style democracy and human rights. Unfortunately it seems to be a minority. What I'm unsure of is whether this is an interlude (like Hitler's Germany in between Weimar democracy and postwar West German democracy) or something inbuilt and longterm. Denazification in Germany was imposed by the Allies, though in the East it replaced one form of totalitarianism with another.

I see a lot of parallels between the European situation in the late 1930s and now. Appeasement in 2014 with the Minsk agreement which froze Russia's conquests in place in Crimea and the DPR/LPR. Apparently Macron, Schulz and Draghi are to visit Kyiv soon. As these 3 are seen as the softest supporters of Ukraine in the EU (I question if Orban is even a supporter given he has blocked the toughest sanctions), I have a foreboding they might pressure Ukraine into another unfavourable peace. The news yesterday that German has vetoed Spain re-exporting Leopard tanks to Ukraine does nothing to assuage my fears.

Sure - elections in Russia are somewhat rigged. But Putin did win a free and fair first election in 2000 during his aggression against the people of Chechnya after very suspicious explosions in Moscow, and the press at the time like NTV suggested an inside job. Putin soon got Gazprom to take over NTV - even sending troops to do so. A book by the late Alexader Litvinenko claimed it was an inside job. The book entitled "The FSB blows up Russia" was seized at entry points in Russia. Was there something in it? During the Trump administration there was litigation to try to force the U.S. to reveal what it knows about it but the government won the case against doing so. There were allegations a Russian defector told the Americans it was an inside job.

R=RUSSIAN W=WOMAN

(W): Hello my dear. How are you?

(R): You know what I ate today? You’ve never eaten this before.

(W): What?

(R): An animal.

(W): A badger?

(R): No.

(W): Mouse?

(R): No.

(W): Rat?

(R): A dog.

(W): Oh my god… Are you not being fed at all?

(R): Well, we wanted some meat.

(W): And?

(R): Nothing, I think it was alright. Although the meat is hard.

(W): Oh… This makes me sick…

 Call 2.

(R): So, how’s it going?

 (W): It’s alright, fine! “…” What do you have to eat?

 (R): Eh… To eat… They brought some tin cans… Some salad with carrot, cabbage, we binned it straight away. It’s total crap. It’s like it’s for pigs.

 (W): Yeah?

 (R): Some strange soup…

 (W): How many dry rations do you have?

 (R): At the moment, none. Must have been nicked.

 (W): They must be taking them out and selling somewhere?

 (R): For sure…

😂Russia not looking after their soldiers.

https://wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-russian-soldiers-forced-to-eat-dogs-due-to-poor-provisions-supplies/

I honestly think Germany ( well sholtz anyway ) is also playing for time , they've got to get their Gas storage full of gas before winter , they've got 2 floating lpg regassification platforms that will be in place before winter , and are hoping for a mild winter ....

But I doubt that scholtz will do much after this either ...

"The first casualty of war is always the truth"

If ever a saying suited a war its this one, propaganda on both sides is off the charts...

For now it's less evident but they are running out of munitions and equipment they will not be able to replace and against an enemy that has a potentially endless ability to resupply with superior weaponry. In addition, you can expect insurgency to rise significantly. It also becomes a tougher sell at home where sanctions are beginning to bite very hard. Donbass, IMO, is the about the limit of what they can claim to have captured but attempting to hold that will be hell on Earth.

I think that 4% has been around for quite a while and such numbers are often revised but I don't get the impression that it includes the oil/gas component.

The most recent workaround with sanctions was in the car industry.The result was if we haven't got the parts,then we carry on without them.That plan cant work in every sector that runs out of parts.Russia has lost friends that can help with workarounds.

This invasion would not have happened without Xi knowing about it.

2 people killed, 10 wounded as result of Russian shelling in 7 towns of Donetsk region

Also China is having its own issues at moment with America etc. Over Taiwan. America abd some of its allies are building up or trying to build up more support over in Asia to counteract China and at moment China is trying to get more support with some of the of the other Asian countries and some of the other smaller Asian islands. China won't and there is no point saying invade and even take a slither of Russian land that some people are saying here on this thread. They know all too well there is a war coming with them and America over Taiwan and who is the bigger player in South East Asia and that is where their eyes are concentrated on not on a bit of Russian territory but on Taiwan and who is the real big player in south east Asia.

Today is the day of Russia in Moscow. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine addressed the "fraternal people" with a kind of greeting:

"Dear brothers "! You have always paid close attention to significant dates, symbols and words. You love May 9 and June 12, the words "peace", "justice" and "brotherhood". You have long tried to hide from the world your true collective face, speaking of good neighbourliness and humanism.

Since February 20, 2014, for most countries of the world, you have become associated with such pleasant to the Russian ear words "steal" and "war". Mankind has seen that "steal" and "war" are your age-old "scraps" and your national idea.

On February 24, 2022, you moved on. To the "glory of Russia" and "national pride" were added "orcs", "rapist", "washing machine", "toilet", "sanctions" and "isolation". Now the world perceives you with your "greatness" as ordinary "fools" and real "Nazis" - Nazis, second-class people, whose "we can repeat" and "radioactive ash" cause only a pitiful smile.

"Russians"! You have already approached the next "majestic day" on June 12 with new achievements. For many years, your national idea will be "shame" and "impoverishment", as well as "death", "destruction" and "corpses".

In the end, you deserve it, and congratulations!

Happy holiday to you. Happy " great " Russia. 

https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/06/12/dorogi-braty-z-dnem-ganby-ta-prynyzhennya/

the Daily Express seems to have gone into Putin mania mode this weekend. The number of naff stories I see popping up on MSN is something else.

In other musings, things are indeed looking tough for the Ukraine at the moment. Nothing good is happening in the est and lots of dragging of feet from Germany and France. I still think if Ukraine can hold Russia in the est [lest of the ways] for the summer things will turn back their way in the Autumn. All this talk about superior Russia is overdone. Apart from cannon fodder they are in a right old crapper. Depending on 50-year-old tanks and new recruits right out of Dad's Army is hardly something to be afraid of.

and no, china is in no mood to help them, they are preoccupied with covid 0 strategies and Noth Korea. Not to mention keyed off with Putin for wrecking their plans for Taiwan.

Like I say, if they can hold out for another month Russia will be the one looking over its shoulder.