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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil




  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ukraine is losing 100 to deaths a day,and circa 650 to 800 per day in wounded/injured


    Or 30k casualties a month.....this rate of attrition is simply unsustainable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    Sorry for posting it for the second time but somehow can't get rid of it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 218 ✭✭shivaz


    30k gone from Ukraine means 90k gone from Russia......this rate of attrition means there will be no one left to shoot Ukraine soldiers



  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The us was putting its wounded at 3 to 5 times killed in iraq/afganistan and it was much less conventional/confrontational war,also the 750 figure was banied about on news other day?


    A million willing people,is all well and good but without experience they will be cannon fodder,they will be coming up againest soldiers dug in,and with months of intense enough fighting/experience with em......


    they are going to need outside troops from nato,or america to turn the tide here,otherwise all it will be is a long drawn out bloodbath,with thousands of utterly unnecessary deaths.....russia has no qualms of taking its time and grinding through town by town,why wait on inevitable,or at what point will it before outside help will arrive



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,444 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The 37k mentioned would extend the war by 37 days, you make it sound like they will run out in 37 days.

    Anyways you're not taking into account the injured returning to the Frontline, not all wounds will prevent that. I can't find the quote, but it was a high % (<75%) of wounded soldiers return to the fight after a month.

    Russia will have to do a mobilisation well before Ukraine run out of soldiers. Gonna be harder to get the Russian public on-site for a mobilisation now Puta admitted it's a land grab and nothing to do with Nazis, NATO, chem/bio labs or Ukraine wanting nukes or any other excuses he used.



  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Russia has near infinite soldiers and many syrians mercenaries have been arrested,would surely suggest they have a core of experienced soldiers from there too?


    Noone doubts russia is suffering huge losses,just they have a infitely larger well to draw from......at start of this war, it was put out russia had enough cash to sustain a 9 to 20 day war and everyone assumed it was a matter hold tight and ride it out,this simply hasnt been the case,the sanctions have failed to stop em,the only viable option to sustain ukraine here is outside assisatnce and a lot of it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    They would not want to tell Scholz where they'll meet Zelensky lest he pass it up to his handler.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 218 ✭✭shivaz


    Russia have not got near infinite soldiers.Russia has a lot of men to throw into battle.There is a big difference between trained soldiers and "forced to volunteer men".

    3/1 ratio is for trained soldiers.What is the ratio for soldiers fighting untrained men?...a lot more so i think so my 90k figure has just gone up by a lot!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Yeah, the "Russia is spending [figure pulled out of arse} a day on this war" stuff had as much credibility as the Ghost of Kiev. Russia is not like other European states. It's relatively poor, democracy is only a word in the dictionary, they've been revved up on propaganda since putin took office, propaganda about the glories of war and fighting facists as the mainstay and faith of national Russian pride. Since putin took over after the utter shambles of the 90's where the country was openly raped of resources and power, he continued on, but took it behind closed doors for his cronies and more scraps from the master's table got to the little Russian in the street, the same Russian whose culture elevates suffering to a virtue. He has a lot of support for this. That their czar looks kindly on them. In short they can and will take a lot more hardship than Western Europeans and keep fighting.

    Never mind that Russia's fighting force for the most part is dirt cheap. Compare the pay of a Russian soldier to one in Germany or the US. Compare the cost of an Abrams tank to a T-72. Compare the cost of their most expensive kit their Sukhois etc to Lockheed F22s and the like. And most of all they have the sheer force of numbers and aren't afraid to throw them into the meat grinder of war. They celebrate that meat grinder as a positive every victory day. They've already sustained casualties even by "official Russian" numbers that would likely cause an uproar in the US, or any other civilised nation.

    IMHO - and I said this from very early on; Donbas, or the guts of it is lost to Ukraine. The land bridge to Crimea ditto for the most part. Russiia will have to deal with the rebuilding and control of the inevitable insurgency for years. And again I've said this too; if I were Ukraine, bitter pill that it is, I'd essentially leave them to it. Leave them to that already existing clusterfcuk that's been brewing for decades. I'd concentrate on fighting them to a stalemate at the existing "borders", throw hell at them if they try to take Odessa(which I suspect they won't). Leave them to their North Korea status in the aftermath. Clean Ukraine up, keep the Americans at a friendly distance and get on board with the EU. The current German government are on borrowed time. And the EU should go in and do a "marshall plan" for Ukraine. It will be to huge social, political and yes financial benefit to the EU and Ukraine. And let ever more impoverished Russia look on.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭zv2


    That's the way it seems to be going anyhow. Unless UA gets a trainload of weapons, and the rest, it will be attrition for years. But! how long can Russia sustain sanctions? And! how long has Putnut got to live?

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,387 ✭✭✭✭Say my name




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭Dufflecoat Fanny




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,581 ✭✭✭rogber


    Except it looks like "Ukraine is getting hammered now, but don't worry they're playing the long game and the big counter offensive is just around the corner" isn't how this works either.

    Ukraine is not going to capitulate and Russia is not going to abandon territory. Which just leaves a horrific stalemate and each side hoping the other collapses first or some miraculous game changer arrives. If Ukraine gets a game changer, Russia can still escalate further.

    So probably Putin's death is our best hope. But that's not looking too imminent either.

    The situation is just f*cked up and grim beyond belief and it's hard to see any prospect of peace at the moment



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It really is,by and.large....a paraphrase an old irish saying,.....its not those who can inflict the most,but those who can endure the most,whom will conquer.....


    fundamental mindset of war havnt changed in 2000 years,its methods,tactics and areana might have.....russia can politically,and militarily endure this war of attrition longer than ukraine,a fully equipped force of circa 180 to 250K overseas/nato troops would turn the tide quickly....but politically noone is gonna run to their assistance like that



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It pretty much is Duff. In WW2 the German forces were vastly superior on nearly every metric to the Russian forces, save for winter prep and numbers. Years ago I read a history of that conflict and the author mentioned a "kill ratio" type number about it. It was something like for every German killed, eight or ten, or more? I can't recall, Russian soldiers were killed. But in the end fighting against the sheer numbers the Germans were on a hiding to nothing(fighting on a few fronts didn't help. Obvs).

    Now a small force can bugger a "superpower". The 20th century is full of examples. Vietnam for the French and the Americans. Afghanistan for the Russians, the Americans and the British(and everyone else save for Alexander the Great). Hell, Ireland and the British Empire. It's very doable, but it usually relies on a constant hit and run insurgency tactic where you can melt into the background afterwards, and the support, tacit or active, of the vast majority of the population. In old style open conventional warfare? That's a whole other matter.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,984 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    On the other hand this is a war of choice for Russia versus an existential war for Ukraine... that is a big factor is endurance.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think ukraine will make em fight for every last village of it,zelensky is a fairly hardened killer/commander by now......

    i cant see em leaving it to russia either,even our own country 100 years after partition,has a reasonable cohort who still seek/aspire for reunification......they will politically,and likely militarily (with assistance of america),keep an insurgency going forever there,ala russia has been since 2014 and dangle eu membership in front of these regions in the future as a carrot for reunification/peace



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  • Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That is a huge unknown factor and also was fundamentally what drove russia on againest the nazis (and made the war sellable,by highlighting the avoz battalion and going for them/labeling it as rampant issue there)



    It is a war for survival,and they have alot to loose,the fact near zero defections been reported to russia from ukraine,shows an admirable level of patriotism.....i dont wanna sound down on ukraine,i hope they win like

    ,i just feel it could go all wrong quickly over next few weeks and by end of summer it could be bleak enough situation given levels of attrition and effect on morale that will cause.....if they hold out until the winter,they could drag it out for years alright.....but outside help is desperatedly needed,to have any hope of turning the tide



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Is there a bit of a blame game starting, a positioning of pieces.


    Scholz, Macron and Draghi going to Kyiv. The 3 amigos most likely of any from Europe to tell Zelensky to accept facts on the ground and pull back from Donbass.


    Biden using the words "negotiated settlement" and "land transfer m"last week, Zelensky upping the repetition of how Ukraine has lost too many people to just hand over land to Russia.


    Like I said above, Scholz, Macron and Draghi aren't just going for a social call. They have been regularly in contact with Putin.

    If Russia gets a negotiated settlement, it will be a significant victory for them, sanctions or no sanctions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    Also it was a map showed earlier in this thread, that Russian soldiers killed are from the other parts of Russia, not form Moskva area. So they may simply get fed up with it and Russia can fall apart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 385 ✭✭dvega


    Jesus Christ, people need to take a step back. We didn't hear of any Ukrainian casualties at the beginning of this war and now in the last few weeks, that we do, they can't sustain. We are now seeing the downside of the information war, so take a step back, take a deep breath and look up what a war of attrition actually means. When people see from the Guardian "Tide maybe turning" or from the BBC "Low morale among Ukrainians" we get hundred posts saying I have a bad feeling.

    If social media was around in 1943 the people of Ireland would be practicing the Nazi salute reading some of the bizarre posts here.

    An ex-General on sky news said last week that could be next year before Ukraine could launch any kind of major offensive. Let that sink in and then you may get a inkling of what a war of attrition actually means.

    Severodonetsk is not of importance but it is important to putin because it is 3-5% of remaining unconquered territory in the Luhansk region so he can sell that to the Russian people. This in itself of why it's a political strategy for putin and not a military strategy. And this is simply why many western media call it a strategic city. A loss would be devastating to the Russian morale and strategic position.

    Ukrainian forces could just fall back to a safe, offensive position from which they could keep the pressure on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    From these maps situation doesn't look bad for Ukraine at all




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,067 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Will they be backed in that.


    I hope they do. Some of the noises out of political capitals is certainly worth noting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,444 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Which political capitals? The US, UK, Poland & Estonia and many other eastern capitals seem to be saying they will back Ukraine as long as is needed.

    Germany? but Germany have given Ukraine no heavy weapons, so if Germany back out.... well Ukraine loose nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 385 ✭✭dvega


    The Americans and Uk spent 20 years in Afghanistan, they are not going to flick a switch after a few months in Ukraine.

    Edit: Especially when Ukraine is not losing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,444 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Reading this thread lately people think Ukraine is ready to capitulate and cede any territory that Russia has gained. Have a ceasefire for a few years, the west forgets about Ukraine while Russia regroups and in a few years takes more with another invasion etc...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,046 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than they did at the end of March, 2.5 months ago. So it's not like their grand offensive has had a lot of success since, even if it looks like they'll be able to win in the east eventually.



This discussion has been closed.
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