The most recent workaround with sanctions was in the car industry.The result was if we haven't got the parts,then we carry on without them.That plan cant work in every sector that runs out of parts.Russia has lost friends that can help with workarounds.
If oil/gas prices were to drop (unlikely) it would hit the Russians hard.
This invasion would not have happened without Xi knowing about it.
The extent of his knowledge is pretty unclear and their initial garbled babble about a good partner suggests that they too were blindsided and annoyed.
2 people killed, 10 wounded as result of Russian shelling in 7 towns of Donetsk region
They are part of OPEC+ which is very, very slowly increasing supplies. Until we start to see extremely big inroads on alternatives, oil will continue to be the driver of the world economy but COVID messed up supply chains completely.
Also China is having its own issues at moment with America etc. Over Taiwan. America abd some of its allies are building up or trying to build up more support over in Asia to counteract China and at moment China is trying to get more support with some of the of the other Asian countries and some of the other smaller Asian islands. China won't and there is no point saying invade and even take a slither of Russian land that some people are saying here on this thread. They know all too well there is a war coming with them and America over Taiwan and who is the bigger player in South East Asia and that is where their eyes are concentrated on not on a bit of Russian territory but on Taiwan and who is the real big player in south east Asia.
DISCLAIMER: The above posts are not evidence that Ukraine is winning the war. People should do their own research and form their own opinions on the matter.
Today is the day of Russia in Moscow. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine addressed the "fraternal people" with a kind of greeting:
"Dear brothers "! You have always paid close attention to significant dates, symbols and words. You love May 9 and June 12, the words "peace", "justice" and "brotherhood". You have long tried to hide from the world your true collective face, speaking of good neighbourliness and humanism.
Since February 20, 2014, for most countries of the world, you have become associated with such pleasant to the Russian ear words "steal" and "war". Mankind has seen that "steal" and "war" are your age-old "scraps" and your national idea.
On February 24, 2022, you moved on. To the "glory of Russia" and "national pride" were added "orcs", "rapist", "washing machine", "toilet", "sanctions" and "isolation". Now the world perceives you with your "greatness" as ordinary "fools" and real "Nazis" - Nazis, second-class people, whose "we can repeat" and "radioactive ash" cause only a pitiful smile.
"Russians"! You have already approached the next "majestic day" on June 12 with new achievements. For many years, your national idea will be "shame" and "impoverishment", as well as "death", "destruction" and "corpses".
In the end, you deserve it, and congratulations!
Happy holiday to you. Happy " great " Russia.
https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/06/12/dorogi-braty-z-dnem-ganby-ta-prynyzhennya/
Historically Russia mismanage the opening rounds of battle, sometimes spectacularly, but also tend to learn, albeit slowly from their mistakes and come back - the British can be similar. The Americans more the opposite. They go in kicking butt and then don't know what to do with the butt afterwards.
Similar can be seen here. Russia made a total arse of the initial invasion. Misreading local support, not allowing for logistics beyond the borders where the rail lines ran out. Miles and miles of road convoys spring to mind. And that also illustrated for me at the time the Ukrainians didn't have the wherewithall to effectively attack such a big and rich target. The monumental failure to secure infrastructure etc. After their "special tactical retreat" from Kyiv, they've doubled down and to their strengths in the east and south and bit by scorched earth bit they've made gains.
But gains or no, it also shows up Russia to be a big man shouting loudly but with little behind it. For all the back and forth scuttlebutt they overwhelm the Ukrainians in men, materiel and firepower, or should have. If America invaded I dunno Mexico with the same vigour, how long would that last? They'd be standing around twiddling their thumbs in Mexico city wondering what's next in a month if not less. Hell, if America had invaded Ukraine on the other side of the world to them...
the Daily Express seems to have gone into Putin mania mode this weekend. The number of naff stories I see popping up on MSN is something else.
In other musings, things are indeed looking tough for the Ukraine at the moment. Nothing good is happening in the est and lots of dragging of feet from Germany and France. I still think if Ukraine can hold Russia in the est [lest of the ways] for the summer things will turn back their way in the Autumn. All this talk about superior Russia is overdone. Apart from cannon fodder they are in a right old crapper. Depending on 50-year-old tanks and new recruits right out of Dad's Army is hardly something to be afraid of.
and no, china is in no mood to help them, they are preoccupied with covid 0 strategies and Noth Korea. Not to mention keyed off with Putin for wrecking their plans for Taiwan.
Like I say, if they can hold out for another month Russia will be the one looking over its shoulder.
What Ukraine needs to drive the Russians out
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "So - how many weapons does Ukraine require to repel Russian invasion? It’s nearly 1,000 artillery pieces 155 mm, 200 MLRS systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 IFVs/BMPs + air defense + munitions + counter-artillery radars etc etc. Such quantities would be of strategic efficacy." / Twitter
All the last month has shown is that artillery wins wars. It doesn't matter if you have 1 million troops with guns. If the other side has 100,000 troops and superior artillery then you're in trouble because they can blow the shít out of your army from anywhere.
If Ukraine had been supported properly with proper anti aircraft systems and mobile artillery then this war would be over already. I dont know what the delay or reluctance is about. They've crossed Putins red lines so many times that there isn't any space to stamp the passport anymore, so sending 150 more howitzer and MLRS systems isn't going to do anything bar end this war sooner and prevent a global famine.
The piecemeal, dripfeeding of these weapons is not serving the interests of the Ukrainians or the west.
You do get the sense that the dynamic towards China in Asia has changed a bit. Until the Russian misadventure, there was a level of polite caution and not causing offence. Emboldened by the old US warhorse and the universal backing of brutal Russian sanctions, there is now another way to look at them.
As stated above they have an awful lot to lose, especially on trade and there may be a level of nervousness at the sheer breadth of sanctions that could equally hit them in such an event. I also can't help feeling that there may now be some serious discussion in military circles as to whether they would be even up to prosecuting a war, despite their rhetoric. After all, Russia was allegedly a scary, all-powerful military machine just over 4 months ago.
Their car industry is back to the 1980s...
Not sure Russia has many "friends". Some Belarus types alright. But China and even Belarus aren't exactly going out of their way to help them.
Work around will work for so long, but when they are back to flying in Zeplins will we still consider them managing with workarounds... it's only been 3 and a half months.
Unfortunately there is the unpalatable possibility that the slow rate of supply is indeed in the interests of the West.
They may be wanting to proceed at a rate that keeps Russia engaged, so that they can systematically deplete their military.
Logistics and training troops to use modern western weaponry is the real reason.The slow rate does tend to get conspiracy theorist people excited
I like being excited but conspiracy theories merely intrigue me.
Intrigue yourself over to the correct forum then and as for excitement you may need another website😉
More than that, the shine is coming off their economic and political model. Growth is slowing right down in mainland China. Economic coercion and the promise of sweetheart market access for being politcally deferential and it being withdrawn for not towing the line was a big part of their strategy.
Russian media report Druzhba oil products pipeline in Bryansk region was targeted with 3 explosive devices
I've tried intriguing myself to lots of places, but with little success 🤔
That works short term but if Russia get to claim a win here rather than decimating them it gives them a chance to regroup, rebuild and consider other invasions. Putin has already stated thats his intention.
If that's the mindset it fraught with danger. They could achieve a better result by destroying every piece of equipment and manpower in East Ukraine today.
I see no reason that some Blackwater mercenary types couldn't be hired to work on MLRS systems far from the front lines and train the Ukrainians on the job so to speak. It needn't take bringing 50 or 100 guys away for a month to train them on the systems.
Conspiracy theorists and success are not a match so give up on one of those and you'll be ok👌
I agree with you, maybe they want to cook Putin slowly so that he doesn't act rashly ?
You misunderstand me, I'm alluding to my attempted use of intrigue as a metaphysical transportation method.
Isn't that what you were implying ???
Russia may concentrate to its South next time.
I would think training is the easy part.Its the communication on the battle field with drones,satellite images ect...so a lot of software there with the right minds to put info together quickly and launch weapons.Ammunition storage and supply lines need to be perfected.
Nato and US are good at this so no need to rush,the war isn't going anywhere any time soon
Alot of people dieing, being raped and tortured, so the need is pretty immediate.
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