May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2022 1:08pm

IMT has finished at 12.4 C, slightly above our warmest forecasts of 12.2.

MAX will be 21.0 (we think).

MIN dropped again to 1.4 on Tuesday morning at Mountdillon, which was the forecast value of tae laidir. If that proves correct (no lower values) then reduced minimum progression will be used (you get half the boost available).

PRC looks to be around 90% -- will confirm from MS tomorrow.

SUN also around 90%, to be confirmed.

Will post the first and last effort at scoring after checking everything out.

A rather strange month with the high mean temp and low MAX, all down to cloudy nights and an unspectacular warmth.

sryanbruen · 01-06-2022 1:34pm

The IMT of 12.4C confirms this May as the 2nd warmest in Ireland since 1958 behind only that of May 2008 (13.0C) whilst having the lowest absolute max since May 2015 I think (which was a very wet and cool month). Very strange

sryanbruen · 01-06-2022 3:23pm

Mean minima for May in the UK were the highest on record. Probably similar for Ireland.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2022 1:45am

Scoring for May 2022

The preliminary scores have been checked against the MS. My PRC and SUN estimates were quite close so whether you saw the preliminary table or not, it only needed slight edits. The table is now placed in scoring order. Congrats to Appledrop, Tae laidir and Bsal for best scores this month.

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ BONUS _ TOTALS

_ Confirmed values __ 12.4_21.0_1.4_090_088 ___ 14.7

Appledrop _________ 19 _ 15*_ 14*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 79

Tae laidir __________ 23 _ 11*_ 20*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 76

Bsal ______________ 21 _ 17*_ 09*_ 14 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 73

Mr stonewall ________18 _ 14*_ 17*_ 07 _ 07 ___ 05 ______ 68

MrSkinner _________ 22 _ 07*_ 02*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 66

Sunflower3 _________15 _ 19*_ 03*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 66

Gonzo _____________13 _ 18*_ 04*_ 10 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 65

sryanbruen _________16 _ 15*_ 03*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 65

Dasa29 ____________16 _ 18*_ 07*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 65

Pauldry ____________20 _ 10*_ 10*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 ______ 64

DOCARCH __________10 _ 14*_ 09*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 61

___ Con Sensus _____ 19 _ 13*_ 05*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 06 ______ 61

Artane2002 ________ 16 _ 13*_ 03*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 60

Danno _____________14 _ 20*_ 01*_ 10 _ 03 ___ 09 ______ 57

Dacogawa _________ 23 _ 07*_ 05*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 56

Kindred Spirit _______16 _ 16*_ 04*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 05 ______ 55

___ NormaL ________11 _ 11*_ 04*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 55

waterways _________ 21 _ 03*_ 07*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 54

john mac __________ 19 _ 05*_ 07*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 06 ______ 54

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 22 _ 13*_ 02*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 54-1= 53

adam240610__ (-2) _ 23 _ 02*_ 05*_ 07 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 49-2= 47

M.T. Cranium _______ 19 _ 05*_ 04*_ 05 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 46

Jpmarn ____________15 _ 09*_ 07*_ 03 _ 07 ___ 03 ______ 44

__________________________________________

* Max scoring by minimum progression ... Min scoring by "reduced" min prog, as one score was 20/20 without boost. This means you get halfway from your raw score to the usual min prog score (e.g., your raw score 08, min prog 18, you receive 13, etc).

=====================================

--))(actual forecasts)((--

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Cork 8th

adam240610__ (-2) _ 12.2 _ 27.0 _ -0.8 _ 113 _ 103 ____ 16.6

Dacogawa _________ 12.2 _ 26.0 _ -0.8 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 16.8

Tae laidir __________ 12.2 _ 24.7 __ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 16.8

MrSkinner ________ 12.1 _ 26.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 090 __ 14.9

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 ______ 18.1

waterways _________ 12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 17.1

Bsal ______________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 16.0

Pauldry ____________11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2 _ 096 _ 104 _____ 17.1

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

john mac __________ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ____ 16.4

Appledrop __________11.8 _ 24.1 __ 0.3 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15.1

___ Con Sensus _____ 11.8 _ 24.3 _ -0.8 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 16.2

Mr stonewall ________11.7 _ 24.2 __ 0.8 _ 114 _ 104 ____ 16.7

Artane2002 ________ 11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

sryanbruen _________11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 085 _ 100 __ 15.1

Kindred Spirit _______11.5 _ 23.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 16.8

Dasa29 ____________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

Jpmarn ____________11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 17.8

Sunflower3 _________11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 098 ___ 16.2

Danno ____________ 11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 125 __ 15.6

Gonzo _____________11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 090 _ 14.1

___ NormaL ________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2

DOCARCH _________ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

__________________________________________

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2022 12:42pm

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to May 2022

Scoring now includes a best 4/5 section. For now the table remains in order of total scoring. Congrats to Appledrop who has moved into a narrow lead, the previous top ten scrambled up a bit, however, the entire scoring table is fairly competitive especially when you compare best 4/5 scoring which is a precursor to the eventual "best 10 of 12" scoring format at the end of the year.

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _TOTAL _ Best 4/5 (rank)

_01 _(t04) __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _ 79 __ 345 _____ 290 (1)

01.3_(00.8)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _ 61 __ 344 _____ 288 (2.2)

_t02_ (01) __MrSkinner ___________63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _ 66 __ 341 _____ 278 (4)

_t02_(t06) __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 __ 341 _____ 289 (2)

_04 _ (02) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _ 68 __ 340 _____ 283 (3)

_05 _(t06) __Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _ 73 __ 338 _____ 277 (5)

_06 _(t04) __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _ 66 __ 332 _____ 272 (7)

_07 _ (03) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _ 64 __ 331 _____ 276 (6)

_08 _ (09) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _ 60 __ 319 _____ 264 (10)

_09 _ (08) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _ 55 __ 318 _____ 270 (8)

_10 _ (11) __DOCARCH ___________78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _ 61 __ 313 _____ 266 (9)

_11 _ (10) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _ 54 __ 312 _____ 259 (t11)

_12 _ (12) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _ 56 __ 305 _____ 255 (t13)

_13 _ (14) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 __ 304 _____ 255 (t13)

_t14_(t15) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _ 65 __ 302 _____ 252 (15)

_t14_(t15) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _ 65 __ 302 _____ 259 (t11)

15.4_ (14.0)__ NormaL ___________60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _ 55 __ 294 _____ 240 (t16)

_16 _ (13) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _ 44 __ 284 _____ 240 (16)

_17 _(t18) __waterways __________ 65 _ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _ 54 __ 280 _____ 235 (18)

_18 _(t18) __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _ 53 __ 279 _____ 229 (19)

_19 _ (17) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _ 46 __ 276 _____ 237 (17)

_20 _ (20) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _ 47 __ 258 _____ 232 (t20)

_21 _ (21) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _ 57 __ 251 _____ 232 (t20)

_22 _ (22) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _ --- __180 _____ 180 (22)

_23 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _ --- ___ 70

_24 _ (24) __Bazlers ____________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56

_25 _ (25) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 52

==================================================

Updated category scoring Jan to May 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________125 _100_100_ 75 _ 50 __ 50+ ____ 500 _ 500

Appledrop _____________114 _ 70 _ 54 _ 45 _ 32 __ 31 _____ 346 _ 345

___ Consensus _________108 _ 69 _ 54 _ 44 _ 34 __ 35 _____ 344 _ 344

MrSkinner _____________110 _ 55 _ 36 _ 67 _ 39 __ 34 _____ 341 _ 341

Tae laidir ______________110 _ 62 _ 70 _ 29 _ 33 __ 37 _____ 341 _ 341

Mr Stonewall ___________ 94 _ 63 _ 80 _ 40 _ 31 __ 32 _____ 340 _ 340

Bsal __________________103 _ 66 _ 49 _ 47 _ 38 __ 35 _____338 _ 338

Sunflower3 ____________103 _ 80 _ 45 _ 44 _ 30 __ 30 _____ 332 _ 332

Pauldry _______________109 _ 62 _ 63 _ 33 _ 35 __ 30 _____ 332 _ 331

Artane2002 ____________103 _ 52 _ 57 _ 37 _ 29 __ 41 _____319 _ 319

Kindred Spirit __________102 _ 67 _ 41 _ 49 _ 30 __ 29 _____ 318 _ 318

DOCARCH ______________98 _ 64 _ 37 _ 48 _ 31 __ 35 _____ 313 _ 313

John mac ______________113 _ 50 _ 42 _ 41 _ 32 __ 34 _____ 312 _ 312

Dacogawa _____________ 112 _ 63 _ 42 _ 25 _ 30 __ 33 _____ 305 _ 305

sryanbruen _____________ 90 _ 72 _ 38 _ 35 _ 35 __ 34 _____ 304 _ 304

Dasa29 ________________ 95 _ 61 _ 38 _ 44 _ 34 __ 33 _____ 305 _ 302

Gonzo _________________ 95 _ 65 _ 40 _ 33 _ 31 __ 38 _____ 302 _ 302

__ NormaL _____________ 84 _ 63 _ 17 _ 52 _ 36 __ 42 _____ 294 _ 294

Jpmarn ________________ 79 _ 53 _ 38 _ 42 _ 39 __ 33 _____ 284 _ 284

waterways ______________96 _ 52 _ 24 _ 44 _ 39 __ 25 _____ 280 _ 280

Joe Public ______________ 90 _ 54 _ 41 _ 40 _ 34 __ 21 _____ 280 _ 279

M.T. Cranium ____________93 _ 44 _ 39 _ 35 _ 33 __ 32 _____ 276 _ 276

adam240610 ____________89 _ 45 _ 40 _ 28 _ 28 __ 32 _____ 262 _ 258

Danno _________________ 65 _ 64 _ 33 _ 40 _ 25 __ 27 _____ 254 _ 251

200motels _ (3/5) ________56 _ 46 _ 18 _ 28 _ 19 __ 18 _____ 185 _ 180

Gaoth Laidir _(1/5) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

Bazlers _ (1/5) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

esposito _ (1/5) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

=======

In the table above, top score in each category is in bold, and second highest in italics.

Three are tied for top score in the SUN category (so no second place indicated).

NormaL now one ahead of top score in bonus category and is ahead of second place among forecasters for PRC.

Con Sensus not ranked 1st or 2nd in any.

------------------------------------------------

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Four seasons update to follow (later today)

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2022 1:37pm

Four Seasons Contest Update _ Spring 2022

(Points _ 10 for top seasonal total, then 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, etc, 2 for 7th, and 1 point for 8th-12th or >180 pts)

Table is in the order of total points so far.

FORECASTER __ Winter Score __ Pts ___ Spring Score __ Pts ___ TOTALS

MrSkinner _________213 ____ 3 ________215 _____ 10 _______ 13

Bsal ______________216 ____ 4 ________210 ______ 7 _______ 11

Kindred Spirit ______ 233 ___ 10 _______ 172 ______ 0 _______ 10

Appledrop _________ 217 ____ 5 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 9

Pauldry ___________ 227 ____ 7 _______ 176 ______ 0 ________ 7

Gonzo ____________ 147 ____ 0 _______ 210 ______ 7 ________ 7

Tae laidir __________ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

Mr stonewall _______ 210 ____ 2 _______ 203 ______ 5 ________ 7

__ Con Sensus _____ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

Danno _____________ 73 ____ 0 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 4

sunflower3 _________205 ____ 1 _______ 195 ______ 2 ________ 3

Artane2002 ________ 209 ____ 1 _______ 190 ______ 1 ________ 2

DOCARCH __________209 ____ 1 _______ 185 ______ 1 ________ 2

sryanbruen _________184 ____ 1 _______ 181 ______ 1 ________ 2

Dasa29 ____________172 ____ 0 _______ 180 ______ 1 ________ 1

john mac __________ 203 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1

__NormaL _________184 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1

dacogawa __________175 ____ 0 _______ 164 ______ 0 ________ 0

waterways _________ 178 ____ 0 _______ 170 ______ 0 ________ 0

M.T. Cranium _______ 173 ____ 0 _______ 166 ______ 0 ________ 0

Jpmarn ____________166 ____ 0 _______ 175 ______ 0 ________ 0

Joe Public __________176 ____ 0 _______ 172 ______ 0 ________ 0

200motels _________ 179 ____ 0 _______ (74) 1 mo _ 0 ________ 0

adam240610 _______ 145 ____ 0 _______ 178 ______ 0 ________ 0

appledrop · 02-06-2022 4:02pm

I don't believe it!

I've waited so long to come 1st on one of the months + it comes on the maddest month weatherwise.

I still don't believe that IMT for May🤣

sryanbruen · 02-06-2022 4:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149928#Comment_119149928

Something even nuttier... May 2022 was the warmest May on record for Phoenix Park where monthly temperature records go back to mid-19th century. Now that is unbelievable 😂 Will have a look as promised at mean maxima and mean minima and compare historically when the May 2022 daily values come into the historical database on met.ie.

The Met report it as Ireland's 3rd warmest May since 1900 (behind 2008 and 2017) - they use a different set of stations to what is used to calculate the IMT on here.

appledrop · 02-06-2022 6:19pm

Ah sryanbruen stop, that's mad.

You know what I said on spring thread about this month.

Lies damn lies and statistics🤣

pauldry · 02-06-2022 8:31pm

Well done Appledrop. You're in a good position overall now. Those late nights must be spent studying weather stats eh?

02-06-2022 8:34pm

May felt cold. Very odd. Warm nights I supppse.

mr.stonewall · 02-06-2022 8:44pm

Well done appledrop on a serious score. The leaderboard is tight at the top and lets hope we have a good run into December l, just like the premier League.

There still was good warmth in the days in may and the warmth had held overnight in the mornings. Not a bad month on the agri side

appledrop · 02-06-2022 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150967#Comment_119150967

What if I lose my magic powers when the newborn actually starts sleeping though the night🤣.

pauldry · 02-06-2022 9:55pm

I actually did better when my twins were young. There must be correlation between being zonked and weather forecasting ability.

appledrop · 02-06-2022 9:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151306#Comment_119151306

🤣🤣🤣🤣

sryanbruen · 08-06-2022 11:37am

The data has come in for synoptic stations for May 2022 and I have analysed it all here as promised.

I got the following anomalies relative to average* for the national mean maximum and mean minimum temperature during May 2022. The stations considered are the same as those used for the IMT in the forecast contests.

Mean max: 16.5C (+0.8C)

Mean min: 8.4C (+1.3C)

Pretty much confirms what I was saying in previous posts. The mild nights were the main player in how mild May 2022 was for the mean temperature but they weren't the only player as mean max was also at least 0.5C above average so the days weren't cool by any stretch of the imagination.

*Average refers to the climate period 1991-2020.

In terms of the warmest Mays for mean max and mean min, here's the warmest Mays for mean max firstly since 1958.

May 2008 17.7C

May 2020 17.5C

May 2018 17.4C

May 1990 17.4C

May 2001 17.3C

May 2017 17.2C

May 1959 17.1C

May 1989 17.0C

Some similar years to the IMT with 2008 being the big daddy again but a fairly different set of years. May 2022 is just outside the top 10 at 13th warmest for reference. May 2020 being the 2nd warmest is interesting too, shows the month was really brought down by the cold nights in the first half that it wasn't a big contender for the warmest IMT. Its mean max isn't significantly short of May 2008 which had a much warmer mean min.

Now here's the warmest Mays for mean min:

May 1999 8.8C

May 2008 8.5C

May 2022 8.4C

May 1970 8.3C

May 1998 8.2C

May 2014 8.1C

May 2011 8.0C

May 1992 8.0C

Now apart from 2008 and 1992, that's a very different set of years compared to the IMT. May 2022 was the 3rd warmest for mean min behind 2008 and 1999. May 1999 is still very much the warmest for mean minimum temperature on record. Mays 2011 and 2014 were also years I had in mind coming into this for notably mild nights or lack of cold nights whilst also lacking genuine warm days. The national absolute max temperature in May 2011 was only 20.6C, this includes climate stations.

I will be working on wind speeds next but before I do, the Met have said themselves briefly in the May 2022 monthly weather summary that wind wasn't especially strong in May 2022 relative to what Ireland expects during the month of May.

sryanbruen · 09-06-2022 4:43pm

Was Met Éireann correct in their wording of "not particularly strong"? National mean wind speeds for the month of May since 1960 suggest so indeed. May 2022 was the windiest May since 2015 nationally but historically is nothing special with most Mays being windier. The trend has been downwards over time. Mays 2016-21 were all calmer than average. The last very windy May was back in 2011 (a month renown for mild nights and not overly warm days as described in prior post). May 2019 was the 4th calmest since 1960.

@appledrop asked to look at Dublin Airport directly. The results are fairly similar. May 2022 was nothing special, most Mays of the past were windier. 8.8 knots is only the windiest since 2017 at the airport. The last windy May in Dublin was 2015 much like the national mean when the average was 12.6 knots here.

I wonder what makes May 2022 unusually windy in the minds of people? The 2021 wind drought? The tendency for calm Mays of late? Everything opening up and back as normal after all the lockdowns that commuting has gotten more frequent again? Poor memories? The mean wind direction? That's one thing I'll note about May 2022 as compared to many other Mays - May 2022 was an unusually westerly month and there wasn't much easterlies or northerlies (until the final few days) as you'd expect in a typical May given it is the most easterly month of the year on average. This definitely would have made it seem windier in the west than it was in the end I'd have thought. It's all interesting to ponder at but whatever the reason, statistically May 2022 was pretty forgettable all around bar the mild nights which themselves weren't even record breaking compared to May 1999. I think that closes the door firmly on May 2022 and it's a month to be forgotten.

appledrop · 10-06-2022 8:56am

Thanks for all the analysis Sryanbruen, still felt very windy to me even compared to winter when it was on the school walks.

Maybe as you said it was due to direction it was coming from and I think because during last few years May has been less windy.

May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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