May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry

Yeah bloody seafog ruined it for us all. Funny also that Met has 14.7c as max. Wonder what time that was at. Did it get sunny for half an hour?

Jpmarn

Max 20.5°C in Phoenix Park. If the Bonus question this month applied to Shannon airport my guess would only be a decimal point of the 17.7° max recorded there. With cloudy and breezy conditions it wasn’t quite T-shirt weather around Limerick.

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119035007#Comment_119035007

Yeah, who picked that God forsaken place anyway? 🙂

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 12.4 C, the second week average was also 12.4 which was 1.5 above normal.

MAX 20.5 before today with a 21C hourly at Mountdillon.

MIN has not been tracked, hope we get a cold night or I may have to wait for the MS.

PRC now 78% with the second week at 72%.

SUN up to 75% with the second week at 93% (Valentia rather cloudy, the rest averaged slightly above normal).

BONUS question 14.7 C and already scored, see above.

Tae laidir

Yes Mr Dillon come at 21.0

pauldry

May 12th seemed a cold night around 4c min. But bar that there's been no cold night yet.

pauldry

A lot of cold air has moved in after the heavy rainfall today. Tonight could be the coldest of May so far, maybe a 3c possible in Munster or Leinster

appledrop

The way things are going it looks like the majority of us are going to be way off with our Max and Min this month.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now up to 12.8 with the third week average 13.5 which was 2.1 above normal.

MAX only 21.0 and MIN is so high that we haven't really had a sighting, around 4 C possibly.

PRC has increased to 101% with 148% of normal in the third week.

SUN may be up slightly from previous estimate (75%) but there are only two of the six stations with reports in today's weekly report, both near 100%. So I would estimate maybe up to 80% now. May be able to refine that in a day or two, but will need to wait on the MS to get a good value anyway.

BONUS was 14.7 and scored a while ago.

appledrop

It's hard to believe IMT is so high as it hasn't felt that warm to me anyway this month.

We definitely had a 4.6 min I think it was on 19th May but I'd presume it was a bit lower at start of month but we will probably have to wait and see.

pauldry

Tonight is last chance for any min to be recorded I'd say. We might get a 3c somewhere if it stays clear till morning.

After this night's are relatively mild till end of month.

Gonzo

it's been a very strange month, only a few places have managed to scrape 20C as a maxiumum daytime temperature this month. We have yet to have a day with widespread 20C or more across the country. Night time temperatures have been high for the time of year generally above 7C most nights which has really helped that IMT.

pauldry

Tonight's the night. Finally a cold night. 🥶 it's dropping very fast at Mt Dillon. 4c at midnight. Will it get to 0c? Who knows but it's a min night.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119124740#Comment_119124740

Luckily I'm on the night feed so can keep watch for you all😁.

Currently 2 degrees at 2am at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

That seems to be the lowest hourly, wonder if the MAX today will exceed 21.0 anywhere? That would be quite rare to establish a MAX and MIN on the same day (for the entire month). 

Anyone know what's going on with boards? I cannot type anything here, the site keeps freezing up. I go to another site's window and type my posts there in a reply box, and block copy the results, come back over here and post them that way. This led to my daily forecast being posted on net-weather by accident the other day (for ten seconds until I realized what I had done). Probably nobody saw it in that ten seconds. Anyway, if there's a known cure for this jerky boards behaviour I would like to know about it. I don't get this on any other site that I visit (and I cleaned the cache etc). 

pauldry

I only use the site on phone n hvn no issues but a week or two ago everything I typed was directing me to Google. So I dunno. Maybe PM them MT.

See 2.4c in Dublin Airport as a min. Maybe a tad lower at Mt Dillon

Tae laidir

Yes, Boards acting strangely recently.

Not sure if there are workarounds.

appledrop

Our new Min is confirmed as 1.9 at Mt Dillion.

Max was equalled yesterday so remains at 21.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT at 12.7, fourth week average was 12.4 which is 0.5 above normal. I could see this finishing around 12.6 with somewhat cooler weather the next two days.

MAX 21.0 and MIN 1.9. Our lowest max forecast was 21.7 and our highest MIN forecast was 1.4, so full assistance of minimum progression is still on the table. (a raw score of 18/20 or better would reduce the field's boost by 50%). That MIN is probably accurate but I could have missed something lower before I was really looking for a low value, MS will reveal all (also not sure we won't go lower on Tuesday morning possibly, slim chance -- max is probably safe enough).

PRC has fallen back to 91% of normal with the fourth week at 62%. The amount of rain predicted for tomorrow and Tuesday is probably not going to change that very much either way (factoring in today's dry scenario).

SUN has improved to around 85% with the fourth week average 122.5% (735/600). With the third week being a blind estimate, this is a rather approximate estimate but I would speculate that the finish might be close to 90%.

BONUS was already scored.

A June forecast contest thread will be opened tonight (your time) so look for that tomorrow.

Tae laidir

I think this will be a 'could do better' month for us all!

M.T. Cranium

IMT has finished at 12.4 C, slightly above our warmest forecasts of 12.2.

MAX will be 21.0 (we think).

MIN dropped again to 1.4 on Tuesday morning at Mountdillon, which was the forecast value of tae laidir. If that proves correct (no lower values) then reduced minimum progression will be used (you get half the boost available).

PRC looks to be around 90% -- will confirm from MS tomorrow.

SUN also around 90%, to be confirmed.

Will post the first and last effort at scoring after checking everything out.

A rather strange month with the high mean temp and low MAX, all down to cloudy nights and an unspectacular warmth.

sryanbruen

The IMT of 12.4C confirms this May as the 2nd warmest in Ireland since 1958 behind only that of May 2008 (13.0C) whilst having the lowest absolute max since May 2015 I think (which was a very wet and cool month). Very strange

sryanbruen

Mean minima for May in the UK were the highest on record. Probably similar for Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for May 2022

The preliminary scores have been checked against the MS. My PRC and SUN estimates were quite close so whether you saw the preliminary table or not, it only needed slight edits. The table is now placed in scoring order. Congrats to Appledrop, Tae laidir and Bsal for best scores this month.

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ BONUS _ TOTALS

_ Confirmed values __ 12.4_21.0_1.4_090_088 ___ 14.7

Appledrop _________ 19 _ 15*_ 14*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 79

Tae laidir __________ 23 _ 11*_ 20*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 76

Bsal ______________ 21 _ 17*_ 09*_ 14 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 73

Mr stonewall ________18 _ 14*_ 17*_ 07 _ 07 ___ 05 ______ 68

MrSkinner _________ 22 _ 07*_ 02*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 66

Sunflower3 _________15 _ 19*_ 03*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 66

Gonzo _____________13 _ 18*_ 04*_ 10 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 65

sryanbruen _________16 _ 15*_ 03*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 65

Dasa29 ____________16 _ 18*_ 07*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 07 ______ 65

Pauldry ____________20 _ 10*_ 10*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 ______ 64

DOCARCH __________10 _ 14*_ 09*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 61

___ Con Sensus _____ 19 _ 13*_ 05*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 06 ______ 61

Artane2002 ________ 16 _ 13*_ 03*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 60

Danno _____________14 _ 20*_ 01*_ 10 _ 03 ___ 09 ______ 57

Dacogawa _________ 23 _ 07*_ 05*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 56

Kindred Spirit _______16 _ 16*_ 04*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 05 ______ 55

___ NormaL ________11 _ 11*_ 04*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 55

waterways _________ 21 _ 03*_ 07*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 54

john mac __________ 19 _ 05*_ 07*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 06 ______ 54

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 22 _ 13*_ 02*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 54-1= 53

adam240610__ (-2) _ 23 _ 02*_ 05*_ 07 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 49-2= 47

M.T. Cranium _______ 19 _ 05*_ 04*_ 05 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 46

Jpmarn ____________15 _ 09*_ 07*_ 03 _ 07 ___ 03 ______ 44

__________________________________________

* Max scoring by minimum progression ... Min scoring by "reduced" min prog, as one score was 20/20 without boost. This means you get halfway from your raw score to the usual min prog score (e.g., your raw score 08, min prog 18, you receive 13, etc).

=====================================

--))(actual forecasts)((--

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Cork 8th

adam240610__ (-2) _ 12.2 _ 27.0 _ -0.8 _ 113 _ 103 ____ 16.6

Dacogawa _________ 12.2 _ 26.0 _ -0.8 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 16.8

Tae laidir __________ 12.2 _ 24.7 __ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 16.8

MrSkinner ________ 12.1 _ 26.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 090 __ 14.9

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 ______ 18.1

waterways _________ 12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 17.1

Bsal ______________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 16.0

Pauldry ____________11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2 _ 096 _ 104 _____ 17.1

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

john mac __________ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ____ 16.4

Appledrop __________11.8 _ 24.1 __ 0.3 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15.1

___ Con Sensus _____ 11.8 _ 24.3 _ -0.8 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 16.2

Mr stonewall ________11.7 _ 24.2 __ 0.8 _ 114 _ 104 ____ 16.7

Artane2002 ________ 11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

sryanbruen _________11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 085 _ 100 __ 15.1

Kindred Spirit _______11.5 _ 23.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 16.8

Dasa29 ____________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

Jpmarn ____________11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 17.8

Sunflower3 _________11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 098 ___ 16.2

Danno ____________ 11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 125 __ 15.6

Gonzo _____________11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 090 _ 14.1

___ NormaL ________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2

DOCARCH _________ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

__________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to May 2022

Scoring now includes a best 4/5 section. For now the table remains in order of total scoring. Congrats to Appledrop who has moved into a narrow lead, the previous top ten scrambled up a bit, however, the entire scoring table is fairly competitive especially when you compare best 4/5 scoring which is a precursor to the eventual "best 10 of 12" scoring format at the end of the year.

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _TOTAL _ Best 4/5 (rank)

_01 _(t04) __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _ 79 __ 345 _____ 290 (1)

01.3_(00.8)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _ 61 __ 344 _____ 288 (2.2)

_t02_ (01) __MrSkinner ___________63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _ 66 __ 341 _____ 278 (4)

_t02_(t06) __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 __ 341 _____ 289 (2)

_04 _ (02) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _ 68 __ 340 _____ 283 (3)

_05 _(t06) __Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _ 73 __ 338 _____ 277 (5)

_06 _(t04) __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _ 66 __ 332 _____ 272 (7)

_07 _ (03) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _ 64 __ 331 _____ 276 (6)

_08 _ (09) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _ 60 __ 319 _____ 264 (10)

_09 _ (08) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _ 55 __ 318 _____ 270 (8)

_10 _ (11) __DOCARCH ___________78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _ 61 __ 313 _____ 266 (9)

_11 _ (10) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _ 54 __ 312 _____ 259 (t11)

_12 _ (12) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _ 56 __ 305 _____ 255 (t13)

_13 _ (14) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 __ 304 _____ 255 (t13)

_t14_(t15) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _ 65 __ 302 _____ 252 (15)

_t14_(t15) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _ 65 __ 302 _____ 259 (t11)

15.4_ (14.0)__ NormaL ___________60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _ 55 __ 294 _____ 240 (t16)

_16 _ (13) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _ 44 __ 284 _____ 240 (16)

_17 _(t18) __waterways __________ 65 _ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _ 54 __ 280 _____ 235 (18)

_18 _(t18) __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _ 53 __ 279 _____ 229 (19)

_19 _ (17) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _ 46 __ 276 _____ 237 (17)

_20 _ (20) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _ 47 __ 258 _____ 232 (t20)

_21 _ (21) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _ 57 __ 251 _____ 232 (t20)

_22 _ (22) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _ --- __180 _____ 180 (22)

_23 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _ --- ___ 70

_24 _ (24) __Bazlers ____________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56

_25 _ (25) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 52

==================================================

Updated category scoring Jan to May 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________125 _100_100_ 75 _ 50 __ 50+ ____ 500 _ 500

Appledrop _____________114 _ 70 _ 54 _ 45 _ 32 __ 31 _____ 346 _ 345

___ Consensus _________108 _ 69 _ 54 _ 44 _ 34 __ 35 _____ 344 _ 344

MrSkinner _____________110 _ 55 _ 36 _ 67 _ 39 __ 34 _____ 341 _ 341

Tae laidir ______________110 _ 62 _ 70 _ 29 _ 33 __ 37 _____ 341 _ 341

Mr Stonewall ___________ 94 _ 63 _ 80 _ 40 _ 31 __ 32 _____ 340 _ 340

Bsal __________________103 _ 66 _ 49 _ 47 _ 38 __ 35 _____338 _ 338

Sunflower3 ____________103 _ 80 _ 45 _ 44 _ 30 __ 30 _____ 332 _ 332

Pauldry _______________109 _ 62 _ 63 _ 33 _ 35 __ 30 _____ 332 _ 331

Artane2002 ____________103 _ 52 _ 57 _ 37 _ 29 __ 41 _____319 _ 319

Kindred Spirit __________102 _ 67 _ 41 _ 49 _ 30 __ 29 _____ 318 _ 318

DOCARCH ______________98 _ 64 _ 37 _ 48 _ 31 __ 35 _____ 313 _ 313

John mac ______________113 _ 50 _ 42 _ 41 _ 32 __ 34 _____ 312 _ 312

Dacogawa _____________ 112 _ 63 _ 42 _ 25 _ 30 __ 33 _____ 305 _ 305

sryanbruen _____________ 90 _ 72 _ 38 _ 35 _ 35 __ 34 _____ 304 _ 304

Dasa29 ________________ 95 _ 61 _ 38 _ 44 _ 34 __ 33 _____ 305 _ 302

Gonzo _________________ 95 _ 65 _ 40 _ 33 _ 31 __ 38 _____ 302 _ 302

__ NormaL _____________ 84 _ 63 _ 17 _ 52 _ 36 __ 42 _____ 294 _ 294

Jpmarn ________________ 79 _ 53 _ 38 _ 42 _ 39 __ 33 _____ 284 _ 284

waterways ______________96 _ 52 _ 24 _ 44 _ 39 __ 25 _____ 280 _ 280

Joe Public ______________ 90 _ 54 _ 41 _ 40 _ 34 __ 21 _____ 280 _ 279

M.T. Cranium ____________93 _ 44 _ 39 _ 35 _ 33 __ 32 _____ 276 _ 276

adam240610 ____________89 _ 45 _ 40 _ 28 _ 28 __ 32 _____ 262 _ 258

Danno _________________ 65 _ 64 _ 33 _ 40 _ 25 __ 27 _____ 254 _ 251

200motels _ (3/5) ________56 _ 46 _ 18 _ 28 _ 19 __ 18 _____ 185 _ 180

Gaoth Laidir _(1/5) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

Bazlers _ (1/5) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

esposito _ (1/5) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

=======

In the table above, top score in each category is in bold, and second highest in italics.

Three are tied for top score in the SUN category (so no second place indicated).

NormaL now one ahead of top score in bonus category and is ahead of second place among forecasters for PRC.

Con Sensus not ranked 1st or 2nd in any.

------------------------------------------------

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Four seasons update to follow (later today)

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Contest Update _ Spring 2022

(Points _ 10 for top seasonal total, then 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, etc, 2 for 7th, and 1 point for 8th-12th or >180 pts)

Table is in the order of total points so far.

FORECASTER __ Winter Score __ Pts ___ Spring Score __ Pts ___ TOTALS

MrSkinner _________213 ____ 3 ________215 _____ 10 _______ 13

Bsal ______________216 ____ 4 ________210 ______ 7 _______ 11

Kindred Spirit ______ 233 ___ 10 _______ 172 ______ 0 _______ 10

Appledrop _________ 217 ____ 5 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 9

Pauldry ___________ 227 ____ 7 _______ 176 ______ 0 ________ 7

Gonzo ____________ 147 ____ 0 _______ 210 ______ 7 ________ 7

Tae laidir __________ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

Mr stonewall _______ 210 ____ 2 _______ 203 ______ 5 ________ 7

__ Con Sensus _____ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

Danno _____________ 73 ____ 0 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 4

sunflower3 _________205 ____ 1 _______ 195 ______ 2 ________ 3

Artane2002 ________ 209 ____ 1 _______ 190 ______ 1 ________ 2

DOCARCH __________209 ____ 1 _______ 185 ______ 1 ________ 2

sryanbruen _________184 ____ 1 _______ 181 ______ 1 ________ 2

Dasa29 ____________172 ____ 0 _______ 180 ______ 1 ________ 1

john mac __________ 203 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1

__NormaL _________184 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1

dacogawa __________175 ____ 0 _______ 164 ______ 0 ________ 0

waterways _________ 178 ____ 0 _______ 170 ______ 0 ________ 0

M.T. Cranium _______ 173 ____ 0 _______ 166 ______ 0 ________ 0

Jpmarn ____________166 ____ 0 _______ 175 ______ 0 ________ 0

Joe Public __________176 ____ 0 _______ 172 ______ 0 ________ 0

200motels _________ 179 ____ 0 _______ (74) 1 mo _ 0 ________ 0

adam240610 _______ 145 ____ 0 _______ 178 ______ 0 ________ 0

appledrop

I don't believe it!

I've waited so long to come 1st on one of the months + it comes on the maddest month weatherwise.

I still don't believe that IMT for May🤣

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149928#Comment_119149928

Something even nuttier... May 2022 was the warmest May on record for Phoenix Park where monthly temperature records go back to mid-19th century. Now that is unbelievable 😂 Will have a look as promised at mean maxima and mean minima and compare historically when the May 2022 daily values come into the historical database on met.ie.

The Met report it as Ireland's 3rd warmest May since 1900 (behind 2008 and 2017) - they use a different set of stations to what is used to calculate the IMT on here.

appledrop

Ah sryanbruen stop, that's mad.

You know what I said on spring thread about this month.

Lies damn lies and statistics🤣

pauldry

Well done Appledrop. You're in a good position overall now. Those late nights must be spent studying weather stats eh?