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May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yeah bloody seafog ruined it for us all. Funny also that Met has 14.7c as max. Wonder what time that was at. Did it get sunny for half an hour?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Max 20.5°C in Phoenix Park. If the Bonus question this month applied to Shannon airport my guess would only be a decimal point of the 17.7° max recorded there. With cloudy and breezy conditions it wasn’t quite T-shirt weather around Limerick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Yeah, who picked that God forsaken place anyway? 🙂



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 12.4 C, the second week average was also 12.4 which was 1.5 above normal.

    MAX 20.5 before today with a 21C hourly at Mountdillon.

    MIN has not been tracked, hope we get a cold night or I may have to wait for the MS.

    PRC now 78% with the second week at 72%.

    SUN up to 75% with the second week at 93% (Valentia rather cloudy, the rest averaged slightly above normal).

    BONUS question 14.7 C and already scored, see above.



  • Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Yes Mr Dillon come at 21.0



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    May 12th seemed a cold night around 4c min. But bar that there's been no cold night yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    A lot of cold air has moved in after the heavy rainfall today. Tonight could be the coldest of May so far, maybe a 3c possible in Munster or Leinster



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    The way things are going it looks like the majority of us are going to be way off with our Max and Min this month.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT now up to 12.8 with the third week average 13.5 which was 2.1 above normal.

    MAX only 21.0 and MIN is so high that we haven't really had a sighting, around 4 C possibly.

    PRC has increased to 101% with 148% of normal in the third week.

    SUN may be up slightly from previous estimate (75%) but there are only two of the six stations with reports in today's weekly report, both near 100%. So I would estimate maybe up to 80% now. May be able to refine that in a day or two, but will need to wait on the MS to get a good value anyway.

    BONUS was 14.7 and scored a while ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    It's hard to believe IMT is so high as it hasn't felt that warm to me anyway this month.

    We definitely had a 4.6 min I think it was on 19th May but I'd presume it was a bit lower at start of month but we will probably have to wait and see.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Tonight is last chance for any min to be recorded I'd say. We might get a 3c somewhere if it stays clear till morning.

    After this night's are relatively mild till end of month.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    it's been a very strange month, only a few places have managed to scrape 20C as a maxiumum daytime temperature this month. We have yet to have a day with widespread 20C or more across the country. Night time temperatures have been high for the time of year generally above 7C most nights which has really helped that IMT.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Tonight's the night. Finally a cold night. 🥶 it's dropping very fast at Mt Dillon. 4c at midnight. Will it get to 0c? Who knows but it's a min night.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Luckily I'm on the night feed so can keep watch for you all😁.

    Currently 2 degrees at 2am at Mt Dillion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    That seems to be the lowest hourly, wonder if the MAX today will exceed 21.0 anywhere? That would be quite rare to establish a MAX and MIN on the same day (for the entire month). 

    Anyone know what's going on with boards? I cannot type anything here, the site keeps freezing up. I go to another site's window and type my posts there in a reply box, and block copy the results, come back over here and post them that way. This led to my daily forecast being posted on net-weather by accident the other day (for ten seconds until I realized what I had done). Probably nobody saw it in that ten seconds. Anyway, if there's a known cure for this jerky boards behaviour I would like to know about it. I don't get this on any other site that I visit (and I cleaned the cache etc). 



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I only use the site on phone n hvn no issues but a week or two ago everything I typed was directing me to Google. So I dunno. Maybe PM them MT.

    See 2.4c in Dublin Airport as a min. Maybe a tad lower at Mt Dillon



  • Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Yes, Boards acting strangely recently.

    Not sure if there are workarounds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Our new Min is confirmed as 1.9 at Mt Dillion.

    Max was equalled yesterday so remains at 21.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT at 12.7, fourth week average was 12.4 which is 0.5 above normal. I could see this finishing around 12.6 with somewhat cooler weather the next two days.

    MAX 21.0 and MIN 1.9. Our lowest max forecast was 21.7 and our highest MIN forecast was 1.4, so full assistance of minimum progression is still on the table. (a raw score of 18/20 or better would reduce the field's boost by 50%). That MIN is probably accurate but I could have missed something lower before I was really looking for a low value, MS will reveal all (also not sure we won't go lower on Tuesday morning possibly, slim chance -- max is probably safe enough).

    PRC has fallen back to 91% of normal with the fourth week at 62%. The amount of rain predicted for tomorrow and Tuesday is probably not going to change that very much either way (factoring in today's dry scenario).

    SUN has improved to around 85% with the fourth week average 122.5% (735/600). With the third week being a blind estimate, this is a rather approximate estimate but I would speculate that the finish might be close to 90%.

    BONUS was already scored.

    A June forecast contest thread will be opened tonight (your time) so look for that tomorrow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    I think this will be a 'could do better' month for us all!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    IMT has finished at 12.4 C, slightly above our warmest forecasts of 12.2.

    MAX will be 21.0 (we think).

    MIN dropped again to 1.4 on Tuesday morning at Mountdillon, which was the forecast value of tae laidir. If that proves correct (no lower values) then reduced minimum progression will be used (you get half the boost available).

    PRC looks to be around 90% -- will confirm from MS tomorrow.

    SUN also around 90%, to be confirmed.

    Will post the first and last effort at scoring after checking everything out.

    A rather strange month with the high mean temp and low MAX, all down to cloudy nights and an unspectacular warmth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,839 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    The IMT of 12.4C confirms this May as the 2nd warmest in Ireland since 1958 behind only that of May 2008 (13.0C) whilst having the lowest absolute max since May 2015 I think (which was a very wet and cool month). Very strange



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,839 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Mean minima for May in the UK were the highest on record. Probably similar for Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,662 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Four Seasons Contest Update _ Spring 2022

    (Points _ 10 for top seasonal total, then 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, etc, 2 for 7th, and 1 point for 8th-12th or >180 pts)

    Table is in the order of total points so far.


    FORECASTER __ Winter Score __ Pts ___ Spring Score __ Pts ___ TOTALS


    MrSkinner _________213 ____ 3 ________215 _____ 10 _______ 13

    Bsal ______________216 ____ 4 ________210 ______ 7 _______ 11

    Kindred Spirit ______ 233 ___ 10 _______ 172 ______ 0 _______ 10

    Appledrop _________ 217 ____ 5 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 9

    Pauldry ___________ 227 ____ 7 _______ 176 ______ 0 ________ 7

    Gonzo ____________ 147 ____ 0 _______ 210 ______ 7 ________ 7

    Tae laidir __________ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

    Mr stonewall _______ 210 ____ 2 _______ 203 ______ 5 ________ 7

    __ Con Sensus _____ 226 ____ 6 _______ 194 ______ 1 ________ 7

    Danno _____________ 73 ____ 0 _______ 202 ______ 4 ________ 4

    sunflower3 _________205 ____ 1 _______ 195 ______ 2 ________ 3

    Artane2002 ________ 209 ____ 1 _______ 190 ______ 1 ________ 2

    DOCARCH __________209 ____ 1 _______ 185 ______ 1 ________ 2

    sryanbruen _________184 ____ 1 _______ 181 ______ 1 ________ 2

    Dasa29 ____________172 ____ 0 _______ 180 ______ 1 ________ 1

    john mac __________ 203 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1

    __NormaL _________184 ____ 1 _______ 177 ______ 0 ________ 1


    dacogawa __________175 ____ 0 _______ 164 ______ 0 ________ 0

    waterways _________ 178 ____ 0 _______ 170 ______ 0 ________ 0

    M.T. Cranium _______ 173 ____ 0 _______ 166 ______ 0 ________ 0

    Jpmarn ____________166 ____ 0 _______ 175 ______ 0 ________ 0

    Joe Public __________176 ____ 0 _______ 172 ______ 0 ________ 0

    200motels _________ 179 ____ 0 _______ (74) 1 mo _ 0 ________ 0

    adam240610 _______ 145 ____ 0 _______ 178 ______ 0 ________ 0



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    I don't believe it!

    I've waited so long to come 1st on one of the months + it comes on the maddest month weatherwise.

    I still don't believe that IMT for May🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,839 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Something even nuttier... May 2022 was the warmest May on record for Phoenix Park where monthly temperature records go back to mid-19th century. Now that is unbelievable 😂 Will have a look as promised at mean maxima and mean minima and compare historically when the May 2022 daily values come into the historical database on met.ie.

    The Met report it as Ireland's 3rd warmest May since 1900 (behind 2008 and 2017) - they use a different set of stations to what is used to calculate the IMT on here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Ah sryanbruen stop, that's mad.

    You know what I said on spring thread about this month.

    Lies damn lies and statistics🤣



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Well done Appledrop. You're in a good position overall now. Those late nights must be spent studying weather stats eh?



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