May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (11.0 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature for Cork (A) on Sunday, 8th of May. Scoring will be based on error as well as ranking but there will not be any super-bonus available. By considering error as well as ranking, we could end up with a higher average score if a lot of people are close to the target. Will discuss scoring more after seeing the range of forecasts.

Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of May, with points deducted for each four hours late thereafter (or portion). Penalties increase to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

MTC ____ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

NormaL __11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 85 _ 100 ___ 15.1

Bsal

Bsal __12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 87 _ 112 ___ 16.0

pauldry

Pauldry __11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2_ 96 _ 104___ 17.1

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 90 _ 98___ 16. 2

waterways

waterways __12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 98 ___ 17.1

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ______11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 ___ 17.8

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____12.2 _ 24.7 _ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ___ 16.8

Artane2002

Artane2002 __11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.5 ____ 23.7 ___ -1.00 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___ 16.8

Gonzo

Gonzo __11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 90 ___ 14.1

mrskinner

Skinnner___12.1___26___-2___90___90___14.9°

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___11.7__24.2__0.8___114__104__16.7

John mac

john mac __11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 16.4

30-04-2022 9:56pm

real time is 22:56 !! nearly a year . still not fixed .

appledrop

Appledrop __11.8__24.1__0.3__95__100__15.1

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 12.2 ___ 26.0 ___ -0.8___ 110 ___ 100___ 16.8

Danno

Danno__11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 75 _ 125 ___ 15.6

Joe Public

Joe Public____ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 96 ___ 18.1

adam240610

adam240610 ____12.2_27.0 _-0.8_ 113_ 103 __ 16.6

Sorry for being late!

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for May 2022

Bonus forecasts are visually arranged with warmest to right.

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Cork 8th

adam240610__ (-2) _ 12.2 _ 27.0 _ -0.8 _ 113 _ 103 ____ 16.6

Dacogawa _________ 12.2 _ 26.0 _ -0.8 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 16.8

Tae laidir __________ 12.2 _ 24.7 __ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 16.8

MrSkinner ________ 12.1 _ 26.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 090 __ 14.9

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 ______ 18.1

waterways _________ 12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 17.1

Bsal ______________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 16.0

Pauldry ____________11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2 _ 096 _ 104 _____ 17.1

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

john mac __________ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ____ 16.4

Appledrop __________11.8 _ 24.1 __ 0.3 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15.1

___ Con Sensus _____ 11.8 _ 24.3 _ -0.8 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 16.2

Mr stonewall ________11.7 _ 24.2 __ 0.8 _ 114 _ 104 ____ 16.7

Artane2002 ________ 11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

sryanbruen _________11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 085 _ 100 __ 15.1

Kindred Spirit _______11.5 _ 23.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 16.8

Dasa29 ____________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

Jpmarn ____________11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 17.8

Sunflower3 _________11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 098 ___ 16.2

Danno ____________ 11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 125 __ 15.6

Gonzo _____________11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 090 _ 14.1

___ NormaL ________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2

DOCARCH _________ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

__________________________________________

Group consensus appears to be rather warm, but close to average in cloud and rainfall.

Tae laidir

Southerly wind keeping Cork cool.

Only 13deg for 16.00.

Looks like we all overestimated again.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032543#Comment_119032543

I forgot today was day for our bonus question.

That's mad only 13 degrees in Cork, we have just hit 20 degrees in Dublin.

Sure we all know Dublin is the best anyway😉

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT 12.4 (2.1 above normal).

MAX is at least 19.5 but could be a bit higher, expecting warmer temps in third week.

MIN has not been tracked, saw hourlies near 4 C last night. Could be lower than that, don't know.

PRC 83% of normal, trend was above normal north to half normal south.

SUN 58% of normal (347/600).

BONUS is today's max at Cork which looks to be around 13-14 C, our lowest forecast (Gonzo) is 14.1. Will score this tomorrow when the value is posted.

(edit _ values posted on a map at meteociel show 14.7 as the max for Cork today. Not sure if this is accurate though.)

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for the bonus (Max at Cork Sunday 8th)

The outcome was 14.7 but if eventually lower we will maintain these scores anyway.

10 pts (14.1 to 15.1)

-- MrSkinner __ 14.9

-- Appledrop __ 15.1

-- sryanbruen _ 15.1

-- Gonzo _____ 14.1

9 pts (15.2 to 15.6)

-- __NormaL __ 15.2

-- Danno _____ 15.6

8 pts (15.7 to 15.9)

-- M.T. Cranium ___ 15.8

-- Artane2002 ____ 15.8

7 pts (16.0, 16.1)

-- Bsal _________ 16.0

-- Dasa29 ______ 16.0

-- DOCARCH ____ 16.1

6 pts (16.2 to 16.4)

-- _ Con Sensus _ 16.2

-- Sunflower3 ___ 16.2

-- john mac ____ 16.4

5 pts (16.5 to 16.8)

-- adam240610 __16.6

-- Mr stonewall __ 16.7

-- Dacogawa ____ 16.8

-- Tae laidir _____ 16.8

-- Kindred Spirit _ 16.8

4 pts (16.9 to 17.5)

-- waterways ___ 17.1

-- Pauldry ______17.1

3 pts (17.6 +)

-- Jpmarn _____ 17.8

-- Joe Public ___ 18.1

pauldry

Think the 14.7c is inaccurate as its value over 24hr period 6pm May 7th to 6pm May 8th. The 14.7c was achieved on Saturday evening. Sundays highest is 13.4c but could be slightly higher.

M.T. Cranium

I thought it seemed a bit high but any value up to 14.7 will produce the same scoring anyway.

John mac

Max on Met.ie yesterdays weather .. 14.7

appledrop

Yep Cork got to 14.7 and we have a new overall Max of 20.5 yesterday at Phoneix Park.

appledrop

Funny how the bonus question worked out.

If it was Dublin airport we looked at yesterday those of us with lowest temperature value would have gotten the least points.

pauldry

Yeah bloody seafog ruined it for us all. Funny also that Met has 14.7c as max. Wonder what time that was at. Did it get sunny for half an hour?

Jpmarn

Max 20.5°C in Phoenix Park. If the Bonus question this month applied to Shannon airport my guess would only be a decimal point of the 17.7° max recorded there. With cloudy and breezy conditions it wasn’t quite T-shirt weather around Limerick.

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119035007#Comment_119035007

Yeah, who picked that God forsaken place anyway? 🙂

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 12.4 C, the second week average was also 12.4 which was 1.5 above normal.

MAX 20.5 before today with a 21C hourly at Mountdillon.

MIN has not been tracked, hope we get a cold night or I may have to wait for the MS.

PRC now 78% with the second week at 72%.

SUN up to 75% with the second week at 93% (Valentia rather cloudy, the rest averaged slightly above normal).

BONUS question 14.7 C and already scored, see above.

Tae laidir

Yes Mr Dillon come at 21.0

pauldry

May 12th seemed a cold night around 4c min. But bar that there's been no cold night yet.

pauldry

A lot of cold air has moved in after the heavy rainfall today. Tonight could be the coldest of May so far, maybe a 3c possible in Munster or Leinster

appledrop

The way things are going it looks like the majority of us are going to be way off with our Max and Min this month.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now up to 12.8 with the third week average 13.5 which was 2.1 above normal.

MAX only 21.0 and MIN is so high that we haven't really had a sighting, around 4 C possibly.

PRC has increased to 101% with 148% of normal in the third week.

SUN may be up slightly from previous estimate (75%) but there are only two of the six stations with reports in today's weekly report, both near 100%. So I would estimate maybe up to 80% now. May be able to refine that in a day or two, but will need to wait on the MS to get a good value anyway.

BONUS was 14.7 and scored a while ago.

appledrop

It's hard to believe IMT is so high as it hasn't felt that warm to me anyway this month.

We definitely had a 4.6 min I think it was on 19th May but I'd presume it was a bit lower at start of month but we will probably have to wait and see.

pauldry

Tonight is last chance for any min to be recorded I'd say. We might get a 3c somewhere if it stays clear till morning.

After this night's are relatively mild till end of month.

Gonzo

it's been a very strange month, only a few places have managed to scrape 20C as a maxiumum daytime temperature this month. We have yet to have a day with widespread 20C or more across the country. Night time temperatures have been high for the time of year generally above 7C most nights which has really helped that IMT.

pauldry

Tonight's the night. Finally a cold night. 🥶 it's dropping very fast at Mt Dillon. 4c at midnight. Will it get to 0c? Who knows but it's a min night.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119124740#Comment_119124740

Luckily I'm on the night feed so can keep watch for you all😁.

Currently 2 degrees at 2am at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

That seems to be the lowest hourly, wonder if the MAX today will exceed 21.0 anywhere? That would be quite rare to establish a MAX and MIN on the same day (for the entire month). 

Anyone know what's going on with boards? I cannot type anything here, the site keeps freezing up. I go to another site's window and type my posts there in a reply box, and block copy the results, come back over here and post them that way. This led to my daily forecast being posted on net-weather by accident the other day (for ten seconds until I realized what I had done). Probably nobody saw it in that ten seconds. Anyway, if there's a known cure for this jerky boards behaviour I would like to know about it. I don't get this on any other site that I visit (and I cleaned the cache etc). 

pauldry

I only use the site on phone n hvn no issues but a week or two ago everything I typed was directing me to Google. So I dunno. Maybe PM them MT.

See 2.4c in Dublin Airport as a min. Maybe a tad lower at Mt Dillon

Tae laidir

Yes, Boards acting strangely recently.

Not sure if there are workarounds.

appledrop

Our new Min is confirmed as 1.9 at Mt Dillion.

Max was equalled yesterday so remains at 21.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT at 12.7, fourth week average was 12.4 which is 0.5 above normal. I could see this finishing around 12.6 with somewhat cooler weather the next two days.

MAX 21.0 and MIN 1.9. Our lowest max forecast was 21.7 and our highest MIN forecast was 1.4, so full assistance of minimum progression is still on the table. (a raw score of 18/20 or better would reduce the field's boost by 50%). That MIN is probably accurate but I could have missed something lower before I was really looking for a low value, MS will reveal all (also not sure we won't go lower on Tuesday morning possibly, slim chance -- max is probably safe enough).

PRC has fallen back to 91% of normal with the fourth week at 62%. The amount of rain predicted for tomorrow and Tuesday is probably not going to change that very much either way (factoring in today's dry scenario).

SUN has improved to around 85% with the fourth week average 122.5% (735/600). With the third week being a blind estimate, this is a rather approximate estimate but I would speculate that the finish might be close to 90%.

BONUS was already scored.

A June forecast contest thread will be opened tonight (your time) so look for that tomorrow.

Tae laidir

I think this will be a 'could do better' month for us all!