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May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-04-2022 7:36pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (11.0 is the average 1981-2010 value).

    2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

    5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

    6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature for Cork (A) on Sunday, 8th of May. Scoring will be based on error as well as ranking but there will not be any super-bonus available. By considering error as well as ranking, we could end up with a higher average score if a lot of people are close to the target. Will discuss scoring more after seeing the range of forecasts.

    Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of May, with points deducted for each four hours late thereafter (or portion). Penalties increase to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

    MTC ____ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

    NormaL __11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 85 _ 100 ___ 15.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal __12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 87 _ 112 ___ 16.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry __11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2_ 96 _ 104___ 17.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 90 _ 98___ 16. 2



  • Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    waterways __12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 98 ___ 17.1



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ______11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 ___ 17.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____12.2 _ 24.7 _ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ___ 16.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 __11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8



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  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 11.5 ____ 23.7 ___ -1.00 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___ 16.8



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo __11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 90 ___ 14.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinnner___12.1___26___-2___90___90___14.9°



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___11.7__24.2__0.8___114__104__16.7



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac __11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 16.4


    30-04-2022 9:56pm

    real time is 22:56 !! nearly a year . still not fixed .



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,781 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop __11.8__24.1__0.3__95__100__15.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___ 12.2 ___ 26.0 ___ -0.8___ 110 ___ 100___ 16.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno__11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 75 _ 125 ___ 15.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public____ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 96 ___ 18.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610 ____12.2_27.0 _-0.8_ 113_ 103 __ 16.6

    Sorry for being late!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for May 2022


    Bonus forecasts are visually arranged with warmest to right.


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Cork 8th


    adam240610__ (-2) _ 12.2 _ 27.0 _ -0.8 _ 113 _ 103 ____ 16.6

    Dacogawa _________ 12.2 _ 26.0 _ -0.8 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 16.8

    Tae laidir __________ 12.2 _ 24.7 __ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 16.8

    MrSkinner ________ 12.1 _ 26.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 090 __ 14.9

    Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 ______ 18.1

    waterways _________ 12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 17.1

    Bsal ______________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 16.0

    Pauldry ____________11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2 _ 096 _ 104 _____ 17.1

    M.T. Cranium _______ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

    john mac __________ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ____ 16.4

    Appledrop __________11.8 _ 24.1 __ 0.3 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15.1


    ___ Con Sensus _____ 11.8 _ 24.3 _ -0.8 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 16.2


    Mr stonewall ________11.7 _ 24.2 __ 0.8 _ 114 _ 104 ____ 16.7

    Artane2002 ________ 11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

    sryanbruen _________11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 085 _ 100 __ 15.1

    Kindred Spirit _______11.5 _ 23.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 16.8

    Dasa29 ____________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

    Jpmarn ____________11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 17.8

    Sunflower3 _________11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 098 ___ 16.2

    Danno ____________ 11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 125 __ 15.6

    Gonzo _____________11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 090 _ 14.1


    ___ NormaL ________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2


    DOCARCH _________ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

    __________________________________________

    Group consensus appears to be rather warm, but close to average in cloud and rainfall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Southerly wind keeping Cork cool.

    Only 13deg for 16.00.

    Looks like we all overestimated again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,781 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I forgot today was day for our bonus question.

    That's mad only 13 degrees in Cork, we have just hit 20 degrees in Dublin.

    Sure we all know Dublin is the best anyway😉



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT 12.4 (2.1 above normal).

    MAX is at least 19.5 but could be a bit higher, expecting warmer temps in third week.

    MIN has not been tracked, saw hourlies near 4 C last night. Could be lower than that, don't know.

    PRC 83% of normal, trend was above normal north to half normal south.

    SUN 58% of normal (347/600).

    BONUS is today's max at Cork which looks to be around 13-14 C, our lowest forecast (Gonzo) is 14.1. Will score this tomorrow when the value is posted.

    (edit _ values posted on a map at meteociel show 14.7 as the max for Cork today. Not sure if this is accurate though.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for the bonus (Max at Cork Sunday 8th)

    The outcome was 14.7 but if eventually lower we will maintain these scores anyway.


    10 pts (14.1 to 15.1)

    -- MrSkinner __ 14.9

    -- Appledrop __ 15.1

    -- sryanbruen _ 15.1

    -- Gonzo _____ 14.1


    9 pts (15.2 to 15.6)

    -- __NormaL __ 15.2

    -- Danno _____ 15.6


    8 pts (15.7 to 15.9)

    -- M.T. Cranium ___ 15.8

    -- Artane2002 ____ 15.8


    7 pts (16.0, 16.1)

    -- Bsal _________ 16.0

    -- Dasa29 ______ 16.0

    -- DOCARCH ____ 16.1


    6 pts (16.2 to 16.4)

    -- _ Con Sensus _ 16.2

    -- Sunflower3 ___ 16.2

    -- john mac ____ 16.4


    5 pts (16.5 to 16.8)

    -- adam240610 __16.6

    -- Mr stonewall __ 16.7

    -- Dacogawa ____ 16.8

    -- Tae laidir _____ 16.8

    -- Kindred Spirit _ 16.8


    4 pts (16.9 to 17.5)

    -- waterways ___ 17.1

    -- Pauldry ______17.1


    3 pts (17.6 +)

    -- Jpmarn _____ 17.8

    -- Joe Public ___ 18.1

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think the 14.7c is inaccurate as its value over 24hr period 6pm May 7th to 6pm May 8th. The 14.7c was achieved on Saturday evening. Sundays highest is 13.4c but could be slightly higher.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I thought it seemed a bit high but any value up to 14.7 will produce the same scoring anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    Max on Met.ie yesterdays weather .. 14.7



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,781 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Yep Cork got to 14.7 and we have a new overall Max of 20.5 yesterday at Phoneix Park.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,781 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Funny how the bonus question worked out.

    If it was Dublin airport we looked at yesterday those of us with lowest temperature value would have gotten the least points.



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