Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I know. But there's also Hussein, Gadaffi, Mubarak. These things are hard to predict. We'll see

In each of those examples you give, there wasn't an active opposition from a conventional military force as victory was declared. Those had either been defeated, signed a ceasefire or never got involved in the first place.

If Putin thinks he can declare victory at some arbitrary point, even while there is still heavy fighting going on, and have that be swallowed by his people, then it stands to reason that he could have declare victory at almost any point in this conflict and achieve the same result, and do so with much less expenditure of military resources.

Without going into battlefield analysis, I think Putin is dice rolling at this stage.

He'll be quick to "declare victory" and negotiate once he begins to see and process continuous loss of currently occupied territory (you don't buy while the price is dropping).

Commentators say Putin may be contemplating a long war but surely that depends on the possibility of replenishment of equipment and munitions by a third party. Too much has been invested in Ukraine for the West to be content with letting the dog keep what's in its mouth.

It wasn't a gamble. It was a desperation. He and his cronies are like a big parasite on Russia and Russian people. They sucked all they could. The Russian economy was doing badly, so why not to jump on another well developing country, make their nation slaves and parasite even more. It was a survival for him. For long time Russia didn't produce anything worthwhile technologically. They are just eating up their own resources. With the world going green, even that will last for only 20-30 years and then what?

Agreed. He's shown his true nature. Lessons to be taken by smaller states in the EU, like Ireland for example.

But will we take any learnings out of it, to use the current phrase? I doubt it.

The hard unpalatable truth is that we are closer to Birmingham than either Boston or Berlin. And we don't like that message.

I read on CNN that the US and European leaders are meeting regularly, discussing among other issues how the conflict might be brought to an end. I see also where Biden stated that the question of whether Ukraine cedes any territory is a question for them to decide. those statements plus Macron's point to increased pressure to declare a ceasefire. despite the anxiety of western nations to defeat Russia comprehensively, other economic and political issue that have arisen, indicate a ceasefire being declared within the next few weeks.

The Estonian situation is fascinating to watch - rumoured that there are many (closet) Putin shills and fanboys in the parliament who are working on his behalf and that these guys would love to take over the running of the country in order to do their master's bidding. Looks like Kaja is on to them though and prepared to bring things to a head.

But its not just articles in the irish times. Similar sentiments are being expressed in various news outlets over the last few days. Coincidence, or accepting a reality that an extended conflict will result in enormous economic, political and socials cost to Europe in particular.

How the eff do you get such details of troops equipment losses etc….?

On Turkey obstructing Sweden from becomeing NATO members I think it has little to do with Kurdish immigrants in Sweden + Sweden's policies.

Turkey is basically a Western "ally" on paper that had not fully exposed that to all before this Ukraine war. As well as blocking NATO expansion, they are doing nothing whatsoever to help against Russia that costs them, their companies are going shopping in Russia trying to pick up some Western assets on the cheap.

Another somewhat odd news story involving Turkey I noticed while searching for above example:

They sell drones to Ukraine because it harms Russia and that is a traditional rival they can safely give a good kick to while it is occupied + they also get the arms sales earnings out of it, and thoroughly test their weapons in a real war at 0 risk. It has nothing whatsoever to do with their NATO membership, or supporting Ukraine (IMO).

Some Eastern EU members rushing to buy Turkish drones to give to Ukraine etc. is somewhat ironic as well (IMO) given their complaints about France + Germany...They are helping to undermine collective EU security in the south, but I suppose there's a higher temporary goal for them and Turkey is a very long way away and unlike Russia, it doesn't come out with the aggressive + irredentist rhetoric about them (out of sight out of mind...!).