It’s ironic that the enforcer on this thread rules with an iron fist and closed eyes.
How the eff do you get such details of troops equipment losses etc….?
I think you miss my point. I'm quite aware that "it's not just articles in the Irish Times": you can find similar articles elsewhere. It's that the Irish Times will predictably try to make us see that there are "two sides" to this conflict, almost to the point of moral equivalence.
But its not just articles in the irish times. Similar sentiments are being expressed in various news outlets over the last few days. Coincidence, or accepting a reality that an extended conflict will result in enormous economic, political and socials cost to Europe in particular.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/06/04/ukraine-has-become-a-sacred-cause-beyond-the-bounds-of-compromise/
Two pieces in the Irish Times to-day by Paul Gillespie and Gerard Toal. Both condemn the Russian invasion (of course!), both come out in favour of some sort of compromise with Russia. How far they are prepared to appease the gangster state is unclear, but I suppose one could expect little else from the sneaking regarders of the Irish Times.
The Estonian situation is fascinating to watch - rumoured that there are many (closet) Putin shills and fanboys in the parliament who are working on his behalf and that these guys would love to take over the running of the country in order to do their master's bidding. Looks like Kaja is on to them though and prepared to bring things to a head.
The U.S. have been pretty consistent on the idea of Ukraine deciding what's best for themselves, whether it's fighting on or surrendering territory. It's not a sentiment that has only bubbled up in the last week which would be therefore indicative of a weakening Western resolve to support Ukraine.
Macron's statement about Russia must not be humiliated - no right thinking person could interpret a humiliation for Russia as having to cede ground which they illegally sit on. If the West in some way brokers a peace between Ukraine and Russia that allows Russia to hold the lands they currently occupy and be brought to no account for the genocide they have been perpetrating (which would be at least an order of magnitude worse than anything Russia could accuse Ukraine of in the Donbas in 2014-2022), millions of people either missing or displaced, entire cities pounded to rubble, then those actions would gain legitimacy. They would.... work, to put it simply. And if Russia knows that the West cannot withstand economic hardship to the same extent that Russia can, and that it's not willing to directly confront Russia militarily, then Russia's laughing. It can just load up those artillery pieces and grind its way across eastern Europe.
I read on CNN that the US and European leaders are meeting regularly, discussing among other issues how the conflict might be brought to an end. I see also where Biden stated that the question of whether Ukraine cedes any territory is a question for them to decide. those statements plus Macron's point to increased pressure to declare a ceasefire. despite the anxiety of western nations to defeat Russia comprehensively, other economic and political issue that have arisen, indicate a ceasefire being declared within the next few weeks.
A lot of political shifting going on and it's not all noble. Some opportunistic shizness happening.
Geographically you are correct, but Birmingham is atypical of a UK city, never mind being similar to Ireland.
It's funny because he was perfectly on course to stay in control of Russia for pretty much as long as he wanted before this whole thing kicked off, so if it's all just about power, he could likely have maintained that without a single shot being fired. If anything, the austerity generated by a protracted war will only serve to undermine his power.
Putin looks to China as a model, but part of what makes China a success is their subtle approach to foreign policy. China are not going into these types of costly foreign adventures. They're doing business and slowly getting their hooks into everything. It's very much a long game approach. Something Putin doesn't appear to have the patience for.
Agreed. He's shown his true nature. Lessons to be taken by smaller states in the EU, like Ireland for example.
But will we take any learnings out of it, to use the current phrase? I doubt it.
The hard unpalatable truth is that we are closer to Birmingham than either Boston or Berlin. And we don't like that message.
Personally I love to see clips from Russia state TV, it reminds us why Russia cannot be allowed win.
keep posting…
bootlickers like him prolong the war.
Oh yes, I’d agree there. It might also explain why he’s rather stupidly using up pretty much the entire Russian military on this. It might add reason as to why Finland and Sweden are taking this chance to join NATO. The Russians likely have few combat ready troops left available for a Northern offensive, especially not against a professional Western army.
It wasn't a gamble. It was a desperation. He and his cronies are like a big parasite on Russia and Russian people. They sucked all they could. The Russian economy was doing badly, so why not to jump on another well developing country, make their nation slaves and parasite even more. It was a survival for him. For long time Russia didn't produce anything worthwhile technologically. They are just eating up their own resources. With the world going green, even that will last for only 20-30 years and then what?
I hate this fucker. I'm a quiet man but this attitude makes me want to beat the **** out of someone.
How dare he refer to rape and genocide as a 'mistake'.
**** prick.
I get the impression that whole thing has just been a massive gamble for him.
My guess is that he has no Plan B and is now locked into somehow trying to defeat Kyiv. But it’s been a grinding stalemate, and if for example Georgia were sly about this they’d take the opportunity to take back the Russian state-lets that take up a chunk of their territory. Possibly even a similar fate for Transnistria…but that one will have to be someone other than Moldovia (their army is tiny)
All of that would likely finish him.
Estonia's PM not messing around
Without going into battlefield analysis, I think Putin is dice rolling at this stage.
He'll be quick to "declare victory" and negotiate once he begins to see and process continuous loss of currently occupied territory (you don't buy while the price is dropping).
Commentators say Putin may be contemplating a long war but surely that depends on the possibility of replenishment of equipment and munitions by a third party. Too much has been invested in Ukraine for the West to be content with letting the dog keep what's in its mouth.
Putin wore a $10000 jacket at the rally in the soccer stadium before the war, he doesn’t care about soldiers, tanks or money it’s about what can he do to stay on for another few years.
In each of those examples you give, there wasn't an active opposition from a conventional military force as victory was declared. Those had either been defeated, signed a ceasefire or never got involved in the first place.
If Putin thinks he can declare victory at some arbitrary point, even while there is still heavy fighting going on, and have that be swallowed by his people, then it stands to reason that he could have declare victory at almost any point in this conflict and achieve the same result, and do so with much less expenditure of military resources.
It is difficult for Russia to see itself retreating back to its borders.It is not difficult for Ukraine to see Russia retreat.
The same applies to Russian supporters and Ukraine supporters.
Ukraine have not got into high gear yet.This must happen first and the borders will be clearer to see when the Ukraine offensive ends.
Is it it’s difficult to see Russia retreating back to its borders. Either Russia will be prevented advancing beyond the current front or they will gradually inch towards Odessa.
Huge losses for Russia on the Izium front and reports that wagner group refused to go forward towards the Lyman/Sloviansk bridge.Wagner don't do cannon fodder,they leave that to others.
"Thus, after unsuccessful actions in the Izyum direction, the enemy suffered significant losses in the 64th and 38th separate Guards motorized infantry brigades, which currently have less than 100 troops.The reason for the defeat was that the Russian command did not provide the necessary equipment to the units that fought in the woods and did not repair heavy artillery in time.For example, the enemy was not equipped with picks at all and had a limited number of BSL-110 sapper shovels and other means to create the necessary field fortifications."
I know. But there's also Hussein, Gadaffi, Mubarak. These things are hard to predict. We'll see
Its much too early for any real speculation on that but you are free to guess away.
12 PzH 2000 will join the the war in about two weeks,18 crews have been in training since 11th may.HIMARS should also be joining the battle around the same time.July is going to be a new phase of the war with m777,Ceasars,Crab Howitzers joined by PZH 2000,HIMARS,Anti-ship weapons and fresh newly trained highly motivated troops.
https://defence-ua.com/news/stalo_vidomo_koli_zavershitsja_navchannja_ukrajinskih_artileristiv_na_sau_pzh_2000_i_zsu_pustit_jih_na_peredovu-7647.html
I think even from the start Biden seemed to accept a certain amount of annexation. It’ll depend what the NATO define as Russian territory in the end, Is Crimea Russian territory for example.
If Putin avails of an off ramp from the war he has to at least make a statement to that effect especially for home consumption. But, no matter what off ramp strategy he uses - he might even declare a cease fire - if Ukr does not respond to the strategy he uses and not accepting the statements made by Putin eg the whole of The Donbas and Luhansk provinces are now under Russian control and we will be holding a referendum VERY SOON to consolidate its independence and THE UKRAINE army keeps fighting. . Well, IMHO, that means that Putin has to ‘ COME BACK OUT AND START FIGHTING AGAIN.
And if there is a significant time gap between the OFF RAMP /BACK ON RAMP , it will give the Ukr to rearm - and especially with those long range artelliry pieces- subject to the US , mainly staying on board
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