Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Been listening to Tom Clonan for quite some time now, he was one of few that said this war would turn into a war of attrition several weeks ago. He said it on national radio. A key statement he makes here is that the new wepons Ukraine are receiving is to stop Putin from taking the black sea coast entirely and that Putin will declare victory once Donbass is occupied and live to fight/rearm another day. Starting to feel that this is the off ramp many feel he needs to back off. It would certainly keep him in power

Putin doesn't need an off ramp. He controls the media in Russia, he can claim anything and people will believe it.

What ever land Russia possesses when Putin declares victory will be short lived. The manpower and resources for Russia to hold on to that land indefinitely makes it an non runner, they would be under constant Ukrainian counter attacks. It's not like once Russia declares victory that all the sanctions will be lifted and Russia will be welcomed back into the civilized world. They are more likely to be declared a terrorist state at this stage!

Some people do believe that Putin will just announce 'victory' some day in the next couple of months and that Russian troops will stop fighting.

But other analysts think he might favour a long drawn out war that lasts well into 2023 or even beyond it (perhaps in the hope that the West will lose interest and stop backing Ukraine). Anyone who thinks the former option and the "off ramp" are a dead cert is being very presumptuous....Putin might be mad enough to have a conflict that goes on for years and see where it takes him.

12 PzH 2000 will join the the war in about two weeks,18 crews have been in training since 11th may.HIMARS should also be joining the battle around the same time.July is going to be a new phase of the war with m777,Ceasars,Crab Howitzers joined by PZH 2000,HIMARS,Anti-ship weapons and fresh newly trained highly motivated troops.

• Caliber: 155 mm
• Barrel length: 52 calibers
• Shooting range: up to 47 km (projectile with improved ballistics), 67 km (active-jet)
• Speed ​​of fire: maximum on the range up to 12 shots per minute

https://defence-ua.com/news/stalo_vidomo_koli_zavershitsja_navchannja_ukrajinskih_artileristiv_na_sau_pzh_2000_i_zsu_pustit_jih_na_peredovu-7647.html

I know. But there's also Hussein, Gadaffi, Mubarak. These things are hard to predict. We'll see

In each of those examples you give, there wasn't an active opposition from a conventional military force as victory was declared. Those had either been defeated, signed a ceasefire or never got involved in the first place.

If Putin thinks he can declare victory at some arbitrary point, even while there is still heavy fighting going on, and have that be swallowed by his people, then it stands to reason that he could have declare victory at almost any point in this conflict and achieve the same result, and do so with much less expenditure of military resources.

Without going into battlefield analysis, I think Putin is dice rolling at this stage.

He'll be quick to "declare victory" and negotiate once he begins to see and process continuous loss of currently occupied territory (you don't buy while the price is dropping).

Commentators say Putin may be contemplating a long war but surely that depends on the possibility of replenishment of equipment and munitions by a third party. Too much has been invested in Ukraine for the West to be content with letting the dog keep what's in its mouth.

It wasn't a gamble. It was a desperation. He and his cronies are like a big parasite on Russia and Russian people. They sucked all they could. The Russian economy was doing badly, so why not to jump on another well developing country, make their nation slaves and parasite even more. It was a survival for him. For long time Russia didn't produce anything worthwhile technologically. They are just eating up their own resources. With the world going green, even that will last for only 20-30 years and then what?