Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Momentum going east back toward Russia

When Severodonetsk is resolved, either way, things will level out for a while, then start up again with Ukraine winning.

Nonsense. They push Russia back twice and retaken huge amounts of territory. Ukraine holds all the keys here the longer this goes on. Russia conquering territory will be a drain for them in the short and medium term.

The Russian army has lots huge amount of men and equipment, the latter of which is difficult to replace with sanctions ongoing.

Time is on Ukraine's side. Those telling Ukraine to sue for peace now are fools and shills imo.

Just look at Afghanistan, they can bleed the Russians dry. I cannot see an easy out for Russia here.

Afghanistan was due to the Russians trying to forcibly occupy a country and deal with insurgencies, similar to US in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Remains to be seen if there will be a significant insurgency in Russian held territories so far - DPR and LPR have been Russia-aligned for years now and havent suffered from anywhere near that kind of unrest. And with a lot of the pro-west citizenry having fled the now occupied territories that makes serious insurgency even less likely.

Can't know for sure until things become a bit more normal under occupation and frontlines start to really stall but its very unlikely to be Afghanistan 2.0

This is gas.

Ukraine have been winning all over the place including the sea .. with no NAVY.

Some recent small advances by Russia does not a save face make.

As for sanctions not working ,.negative GDP and the only thing propping them up is sanctions not being implemented in full see France Germany Italy.

If they pulled up their pants then we'd see this accelerate.

Did I say your summation was gas? Because it is.

Kissinger is believed by many to be a Putin shill and to be way too close to him.

Probably people imagined the sanctions will lead to popular revolts which will overthrow Putin, and this was to happen this side of Christmas. Probably because those imposing the sanctions did a lousy job of explaining that russians are already poor and yet they support Putin 80% or more so these sanctions will only work long term to further weaken the economy and make waging war unsustainable.

But the only short term solution is military aid, not necessary troops but intel and training and of course arms. And make no mistake, there is no other way to real peace than having russia defeated.

There definitely have been accusations that he was too close to Putin in the last few years and not necessarily an honest broker (people were already accusing him of being a Putin appeaser five or six years ago) :

That's the thing. Kissinger's view that "Nations do not have permanent friends or enemies, only interests" is at its core supremely pragmatic. However, it is based on a flawed principle, namely that the leadership of a nation is willing to act in a rational manner and compromise to further said interests, akin to how China acted in the 1970s, after the Sino-Soviet split. Side note, whatever you think of Kissinger, I highly recommend you check out his book "On China". I found it extremely interesting and useful with regards to the "stand-off" between the west and China in recent years.

But back to the topic at hand. This "interest-based" policy breaks down when confronted with a nation that acts from an emotional point of view, whether it is a longing for past grandeur, as seen in post-Brexit UK politics, a fear of encirclement by presumed hostile nations or alliances, a combination of those or another point entirely. Kissinger is, in my eyes, simply falling into the same trap that a number of European politicians have already fallen into, namely that this type of rational policy will work on a fundamentally irrational government.

I think you are missing the point here.

The Americans conquered Iraq in a few weeks.

The Russians conquered Afghanistan in a few months and when I say conquered I mean they took over their key cities.

The issue was of course holding the ground and occupying the country.

Conquering the country was supposed to be the easy part for Russia in this war, but they managed to **** that up. Are we to say they are going to be better occupiers than the Americans, given we have seen that Ukraine know how to fight, they have a western border with NATO country with heavy arms pouring in?

Not.a.chance.

What is the best-case scenario here for Russia? They conquer the Donbas, say "We want peace now" and Ukraine say grand and they live happily ever after? Even if Russia takes more territory in the next few weeks or months, its more territory they have to manage, secure, keep stable....

I cannot see an easy out for Russia here. They have gone in and Putin and Russia would get out if they could save face, but its too late for that now.

The Spook business is a strange one, a lot of stuff that goes on would make a Tom Clancy novel blush.

A small number of Russian troops around Kiev there was tens of thousands of Russians .

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