Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Few people can be under the illusion at this present time that Putin is actively looking for a way out of this war. His representatives have thus far either rebuffed calls for negotiations on a possible settlement between the countries or come to talks with demands far too sweeping and unreasonable for Zelenskyy to accept.

But every single war is ultimately ended by a diplomatic action, even if that's the signing of a declaration of unconditional surrender, so this will end with a compromise on one side's original goals. The only question is who will be making that compromise and how much of a one they will be making.

Going back to the idea that Putin is not contemplating compromise and will simply chuck legion after legion after legion of men at the situation until his forces manage to eke out gains across eastern Ukraine - it's true that Putin does not seem to much value the lives of his soldiers, but that doesn't mean that the soldiers don't value their own lives and their lives are not valued by their families. Russian casualties in Ukraine, even by relatively conservative estimates, have already surpassed what the Soviet army suffered in Afghanistan, and that was a war which helped to precipitate the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin would want to have an iron grip on the Russian people quite unlike anything seen in history that he can essentially fling tens of thousands of men into the meat grinder of Ukraine and expect to maintain domestic political stability over a prolonged period of time. It would be one thing if this was an existential war for Russia, but it most certainly is not.

If, as the Atlantic article points out, Russia is not prepared to abide by international agreements, then the only way to end the war is a sufficient destruction of Russia's military, but this will never happen because failing all else, Russia has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons - the ultimate bargaining tool - which make it impervious to complete takeover or subjugation by conventional military means. It seems to me that in international diplomacy, one of the things that binds a country to international agreements is the sense that it has more to gain from abiding to it than breaking it. Russia has seen less and less utility in sticking to agreements signed between itself and Ukraine or itself and the West, but is still doing business with China. This suggests to me that it wants to continue building good faith with China in an effort to build this new authoritarian world order. However, a change of leadership and political philosophy in Russia would change the calculus on how it deals with the West.

In the end, the likelihood is that if Putin is to endure defeat, it doesn't happen on the battlefield, but in a rapid disintegration of his domestic power, similar to the German revolution of October 1918 that unseated Kaiser Wilhelm. That's what this war appears to be developing into - a protracted, bloody slaughter and it's all about which side can withstand the internal political pressures such a war generates.

Gone in 1 day + the length of time it takes to train up on an Apache :)

Agree 100%. I am not following the battles in Ukraine. As long as Ukraine does not lose catastrophically, it does not matter much. The defeat of Russian offensive will happen in Russian people's mind.

I don't know if it works or not but your man on Sky could have been referring to the story about seeding the clouds on May 9th over Moscow. It might work in small measures.

20 to 1 odds against Ukraine in Donbas

What happened to 'Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia', the fact that shoulder-mounted systems were mincing Russian armour and that much of Russia's armour reserves are from the swinging 60s?

She's absolutely right. I blame that bastard Goldstein...

"Retribution" would have been making him kneel in the street and shooting him in the back of the head.

It would be nice if he were dying, but I could as easily put his posture and twitching movements down to stress. Right now, my more pressing concern is his huge case of massive dickhead syndrome which is contributing to a huge amount of casualties in Ukraine.

..

And you're spot on there

Whist Lavrov is just a spitting image of... well... a grotesque Spitting Image type puppet

Russia is earning more than ever from Gas and Oil exports (and probably from other commodities as well) because the increase in prices has been massive and has more than compensated for any fall in volume. They cannot easily spend all this loot anymore because of trade and financial sanctions, so it just piles up. Russia seems to be running a massive Current Account surplus (I think last week's Economist magazine had a piece on this).

This surplus naturally allows the Rouble to appreciate. But the money isn't much good if you can't spend it in the way you want to. I'm sure it's a lot more complicated than this, but the key is to maintain and even strengthen the sanctions, both financial and trade.

Also it would help if we didn't have this nonsense from the Germans: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/23/germany-to-relax-visa-rules-for-russian-workers-despite-spy-warning

The reality that the Western world of the last 50 years has been the fairest, best place for workers, women etc, for any sub group etc in human history.

That's a complete non runner for them.

he stayed in power because the elite got to stay rich/keep making money… he has f’d that up for a lot of people…. He can expect a few grenades in his porridge incoming.

It's far from the strong man bollocks he has been portraying for two decades. What a legacy to leave if he does die soon. Millions displaced, probably hundreds of thousands killed, military humiliation and a potential famine in developing countries dependent on food export from the bread basket.

Seems like it's going to be a protracted war - the invading army have learnt from their early mistakes.