Property predictions best guess

Hannibal_12 · 19-05-2022 9:11am #1

So, living at home @moment, wrong side of 35. Parents getting old so was looking at getting a place nearish to family home but prices predicably insane.

I see alot of rumblings on the interwebs and talking heads about a contraction coming so reluctant to commit to anything. What are people's opinions over the coming months/years?

Wanderer78 · 19-05-2022 9:14am

fcuk knows, but at this rate, we may never get supply to where it needs to be, its a major clusterfcuk, and nobody knows what to do about it. purchasing is a risk at anytime, take the plunge when you can, and hope for the best, nobody knows what ll happen next, no matter what they say!

TheW1zard · 19-05-2022 9:21am

If you can buy,buy

Smee_Again · 19-05-2022 9:33am

Any contraction will hopefully slow the rate of increase but, personally, I don't see the price dropping. Too much pent up demand.

DellyBelly · 19-05-2022 9:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083997#Comment_119083997

I agree. Prices will keep increasing but I reckon at a slower rate than they currently are which is no bad thing. I think houses in the 350K to 450K in the Dublin region will be gone and it will be more 450k - 550K asking prices from here out, not sure about the rest of the country.

black & white · 19-05-2022 9:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084021#Comment_119084021

I haven't a scooby doo what will happen over the next few years, but what you are saying now seems very similar to what nearly all economists were saying in 2005/2006. I bought in 2006 & 2007 and they are only back to those values this year. I'm not saying you are wrong but tis almost impossible to predict what will happen. The only advice I can give is not to borrow the max amount you are eligible for, interest rates are only going one way.

landofthetree · 19-05-2022 9:48am

They will continue to rise 10-15% a year.

In ten years time the average house price will be 600k.

Wanderer78 · 19-05-2022 9:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084067#Comment_119084067

...i better buy as much and as fast as possible then!

Cluedo Monopoly · 19-05-2022 10:00am

I think we will see a major recession alright - starting in Q4/Q1. Worldwide. What downward effect that has on house prices, don't know. The FF and FG governments have broken the house market so it's impossible to know.

seamus · 19-05-2022 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058246461/property-predictions-best-guess

Any contraction when it does come, won't be anything close to what we saw last time. The same conditions aren't there.

Ultimately if you're looking at buying a house to live in for 20 years, the current prices are mostly irrelevant. If you can afford the mortgage repayments, then the current value of the house doesn't matter. It's impossible to say where any of us will be in 20 years, but the key is whether you could live in it that long. If you buy a place thinking, "It's grand, but I'll have to trade up in 3 years", then you're going wrong. "I might like to trade up in a few years, but I could live here for 2 decades" is a better place to be.

Lots of people would have scoffed at the prices in 2006, told people they were mad to buy. By 2012 they'd have been patting themselves on the back and saying they were dead right. And now in 2022, the prices are back where they were.

Someone who bought at a big price in 2006 and hasn't moved, is doing just fine. They've had a comfortable stable home for 16 years. While the people scoffing about prices have spent those 16 years stressing about where and how they're going to find somewhere to live.

TheW1zard · 19-05-2022 12:01pm

Rent in my area in 3k a month. Even if you bought now and the prices went down, youd still be better off NO?

You might have paid over the odds but month to month you have an extra 1500 euro in your pocket.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 12:21pm

Something very big is coming down the line.

The entire economic model of the west is reaching it's conclusion. It just doesn't work.

In this country, there were 800 odd places to rent a week or so ago, everything from single bedrooms to entire homes. 800, for a nation. Personal and social mobility has ground to a halt, with no letup in sight.

Government paying taxpayer money in the order of 400k+ for a social home.

Investment firms taking up large swathes of housing off plans to rent at max.

One million extra migrants needed by 2050 just to sustain current pensions, never mind future pensions.

Multinational companies paying fractional tax in avoidance, hiring people from abroad to work from abroad after having brought huge amounts of migrants into a housing crisis already.

Fictional ideas of building enough housing to house ever-increasing amounts of people to prop up failing systems.

In short, a pyramid scheme. It was always going to fail, and what we are seeing now are the fruits of that failure. Utterly unsustainable right now, forgetting the future.

What happens next is anyone's guess, but it is 100% guaranteed imo that the current system is over. This goes beyond a simple recession or retraction, this time next year it's going to be a crazy world.

Royale with Cheese · 19-05-2022 12:29pm

If you can buy now before interest rates go up, and are viewing it as a long term home and not an investment then go for it. When interest rates go up prices will come down, 2% mortgages have no doubt contributed to the madness we've seen over the past couple of years, it's not all just down to short supply. The tricky period will be just when interest rates start to rise as I don't think it will have an immediate effect on prices, there might be a bit of a lag there.

Mad_maxx · 19-05-2022 12:33pm

i see a pause in prices for eighteen months or so , perhaps a very small pullback

thats obviously a baseless guess like everyone else

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 12:42pm

I think a lot of people are looking at the big picture with a magnifying glass.

There is nothing normal or sustainable about this situation.

That is the reason we are where we are. There never was a "normal", it has all been a pyramid scheme. There is no pause before going back to a pyramid scheme, or fixing interest rates for "a while" until...

Until what? Until we build a million more homes? What happens then, 2 million more needed? Until a one bedroom apartment is a million euro? Until there are 5 bedrooms to rent in a country at a cost of 20k per month? 400k homeless?

Peak of the peaks is where we are. It's broken beyond repair. There's no return of "normal" coming.

BobbyMalone · 19-05-2022 12:46pm

Nobody knows what's coming down the line - anyone who does is talking out of their hole. The people who 'called' the last one were just guessing as well. Even the normal cycle of capitalism (growth/crash/retraction/growth) might not be playing out this time, as governments seem to have a different way of approaching debt.

If you can afford to buy and it makes sense for what you have planned for the next two decades or so, then go for it - although I wouldn't be buying for investment purposes myself. Another thing to take into account for those looking at 2012 prices: the bottoming-out took a good 3/4 years, and many people still couldn't afford to buy because either they didn't have jobs or the banks wouldn't lend to them, even if they did have jobs.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 12:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084711#Comment_119084711

In this country, there were 800 odd places to rent a week or so ago, everything from single bedrooms to entire homes. 800, for a nation. Personal and social mobility has ground to a halt, with no letup in sight.

No there wasn't, there was 900 odd places up in the daft.ie.

People I know with accommodation to rent actively stay away from advertising them online, same with holiday lets, etc.

RE the OP, the pressure on housing is 2 fold at the moment, it's not just supply and demand but building material prices.

Inflation will peak and come back down, this will then in turn have a knock on effect for supply.

House prices will invariably always increase, so it's never really a bad time to buy if it's a home you plan of living in long term.

Far more important considerations would be your employment security and cost of borrowing.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 1:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084805#Comment_119084805

Oh it was 900 instead of 800. Thank goodness for that, we almost had a housing crisis there for a second.

You say house prices will "invariably" increase. Really? So there is literally no upper limit?

That's the ridiculous mindset always attached to pyramid schemes.

And as for employment being far more important, what good is employment if you can't afford accommodation? One is a prerequisite for the other.

Actually looking at the bigger picture and reality for a sec, just that one element, that one million more migrants are needed to sustain current pensions by 2050. Where are they going to live? Who will pay their pensions?

A lot of people are smoking crack cocaine when they look at the current state of things and think "yeah, this is a minor bump on the road to ad infinitum growth."

https://ibb.co/6FBZpfC

A snapshot right now shows practically ever metric of the economy/housing situation is in deep, deep doo do. Right now. Not from transient elements like building costs, but deeply ingrained, deeply flawed policies that have been allowed fester for more than a decade. Emergency drops of lupilu nappies will be needed when people wake up.

SouthWesterly · 19-05-2022 1:16pm

A big crash coming that will make 2009 like a tea party.

Economies will tank, property prices will plummet. Costs will spiral upwards.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 1:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084893#Comment_119084893

Oh it was 900 instead of 800. Thank goodness for that, we almost had a housing crisis there for a second.

You missed the point, but that's okay, there was also 15,000+ properties for sale on the same site, it's a sellers markets at the minute so that will also have a negative effect on available rentals.

You say house prices will "invariably" increase. Really? So there is literally no upper limit?

You seem surprised by this? 😕

Everything invariably will rise in price given the passage of time. It's the rate of increase that fluctuates.

I don't know when the last time you went for a pint was, but it's longer 6d.

Cordell · 19-05-2022 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084711#Comment_119084711

How many years you reckon we still have? Because first time I remember hearing this was some 25 years ago and unfortunately the one that told me so passed away due to old age so I can't ask him again, so therefore I'm asking you: when? are we there yet? will it be before or after fusion energy, which was also just a few years away for the past 40 years.

Padre_Pio · 19-05-2022 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084901#Comment_119084901

Property prices will plummet.

Why? Not because the demand isn't there, only because the demand can't get cash to buy a house.

So waiting for prices to crash is a mugs game, since you may not be able to buy a house when the time comes, unless you're sitting on a few hundred k.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084926#Comment_119084926

I didn't miss your other point of things being advertised elsewhere. It's just that it's a moot point. Daft is a very good indicator, some bloke talking over a hedge to his neighbours dog about a spare room is not.

When people's wages are increasing lock step with housing costs, that's fine. But that doesn't happen, isnt happening, and will not happen. And the divide between affordability and increased costs is right here for you to see. Housing crisis. "Crisis". Have you heard that one before, maybe some time over the last number of years? Crisis.

I don't want to hear fictional bed time stories about pyramid schemes and how we just need more houses, and then more people, and then more houses, and then more people, and then more houses. All while affordability decreases again and again.

Enough is enough. Time is going to rapidly bear out the inadequacies of such poor ideas. It's not an accident we are where we are.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 1:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084932#Comment_119084932

I'd say this time next year, if things keep apace. Yeah I could well be wrong. I'm not particularly fussed about being mystic meg.

The thing is this, it's not about predicting the future. It's about recognising the current state of things, and it is more than fair to say that things are broken beyond belief. I named a few of them above.

I'm not predicting a recession, I'm expecting a complete economic realignment of some sort. Chaos first, of course. For the simple reason that now, as things have been building up to now, it cannot last. It's chronic.

Cordell · 19-05-2022 1:44pm

It's about recognising the current state of things

That's exactly what it is and exactly where your prediction fails to acknowledge that whoever makes the state of things as they are also makes the rules, that is to put it simply. I recommend you to watch The Big Short (again if you already have) and you will see that the economic model of the world already came crashing down, it was propped up again and it's still like nothing happened, just a few adjustments here and there.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 1:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084965#Comment_119084965

What's the solution porkmaster?

Let me get a pen. Go!

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 1:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084994#Comment_119084994

It was all basically kicked down the road.

Here we are. Now it's much worse.

It can't go on. It's a pyramid scheme. Or the way I like to visualize it, it's an upside down pyramid swaying back and forth on its point as yet another level is added atop. Maybe it's more like Jenga.

As it's one of the most outrageous examples of economic blindness, the one million migrants needed for pensions really sums up the state of play. Being serious, what is actually going to happen there? You can't tweak or adjust your way out of that. It's not long to go. The fallout could be happening all ready.

Pressure can only increase so much until something breaks. I see it manifesting now, all around us.

19-05-2022 1:54pm

You won’t find any crystal balls on this thread but there’s a few things to consider.

Interest rate rises reported soon from ECB - so with mortgage rates increasing cost of borrowing higher, this will have a small cooling or slowing down on prices - but may mean you can borrow less too
My own belief is that apartment prices are well above their market value because 2-3 bed semis are in short supply- I think some prices for 1-2 bed apartments are just mad relative to their 3 bed semi house cousins- steer clear of one bed apartments if you can as their prices will tumble at a higher rate if market collapses- if money is tight try a 2 bed and rent out one of the rooms - but place all the income into your mortgage as this will help insulate you from a property price reduction later if it occurs and might help you steer clear of negative equity
You can see yourself what a war in Ukraine has done to food and energy prices- who knows what will happen next but that sort of thing could happen at any stage- if you are working in a solid job with a level of security then you might be ok
Even at your age, consider working in a tax free country like UAE for 3-4 years- a great way to get a solid chunk of change for a deposit but you’ll still need to live frugally if the lump sum you save is to be worth that hassle as accommodation and cost of living even over there can be pricey.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 1:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085005#Comment_119085005

I don't need to to be able to fix your car, but I can easily tell you that it's wrapped around a lamp post and fit for the scrapyard.

Or people can sit in the seat and make "vroom vroom" noises and pretend it works, that they'll be back home in a few minutes.

Cordell · 19-05-2022 2:01pm

It was all basically kicked down the road.

Down a road they own and that they can extend indefinitely. I'm old enough to be hearing the same thing for decades, so please trust me, nothing is gonna happen. It will carry on forever with the occasional stumble and rearrangement, as it was until now.

Gusser09 · 19-05-2022 2:07pm

Supply is the key really I think. At the moment in Maynooth , Celbridge and Leixlip there are 56 properties for sale. That's in a massively populated commuter zone. You literally have 30-40 bidders bidding on the same second hand homes. One of them, a 40 year old property in need of a total gutting was listed at 325,000. It sold for 375,000.

I think you need to look at the vested interests. My main fear is that 300k semi in these areas is now in fact 400k and it will stay that way.

Whatever goon though it was a good idea that a certain portion of a new development should be used for social housing should be locked up. Seriously is this just an Irish thing where we give people who contribute noting to society a brand new house? Does it go on anywhere else in the world?

Home ownership is going to be for the super rich or super poor. Your fecked if you earn between 30-80k in this country. The only thing you will be doing is paying for everything. Let's see when it reaches the stage of mass protests.

Paul Murphy was able to organize dregs and layabout for his water protests. I don't see him trying to help the middle income class though.

Property predictions best guess

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