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Property predictions best guess

  • 19-05-2022 9:11am
    Registered Users Posts: 363 ✭✭ Hannibal_12

    So, living at home @moment, wrong side of 35. Parents getting old so was looking at getting a place nearish to family home but prices predicably insane.

    I see alot of rumblings on the interwebs and talking heads about a contraction coming so reluctant to commit to anything. What are people's opinions over the coming months/years?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭ TheW1zard

    If you can buy,buy

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ Smee_Again

    Any contraction will hopefully slow the rate of increase but, personally, I don't see the price dropping. Too much pent up demand.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,552 ✭✭✭ DellyBelly

    I agree. Prices will keep increasing but I reckon at a slower rate than they currently are which is no bad thing. I think houses in the 350K to 450K in the Dublin region will be gone and it will be more 450k - 550K asking prices from here out, not sure about the rest of the country.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭ black & white

    I haven't a scooby doo what will happen over the next few years, but what you are saying now seems very similar to what nearly all economists were saying in 2005/2006. I bought in 2006 & 2007 and they are only back to those values this year. I'm not saying you are wrong but tis almost impossible to predict what will happen. The only advice I can give is not to borrow the max amount you are eligible for, interest rates are only going one way.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭ landofthetree

    They will continue to rise 10-15% a year.

    In ten years time the average house price will be 600k.

  • Registered Users Posts: 26,980 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78

    ...i better buy as much and as fast as possible then!

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭ TheW1zard

    Rent in my area in 3k a month. Even if you bought now and the prices went down, youd still be better off NO?

    You might have paid over the odds but month to month you have an extra 1500 euro in your pocket.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,585 ✭✭✭ Royale with Cheese

    If you can buy now before interest rates go up, and are viewing it as a long term home and not an investment then go for it. When interest rates go up prices will come down, 2% mortgages have no doubt contributed to the madness we've seen over the past couple of years, it's not all just down to short supply. The tricky period will be just when interest rates start to rise as I don't think it will have an immediate effect on prices, there might be a bit of a lag there.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭ Mad_maxx

    i see a pause in prices for eighteen months or so , perhaps a very small pullback

    thats obviously a baseless guess like everyone else

  • Registered Users Posts: 48 porkmaster

    I think a lot of people are looking at the big picture with a magnifying glass.

    There is nothing normal or sustainable about this situation.

    That is the reason we are where we are. There never was a "normal", it has all been a pyramid scheme. There is no pause before going back to a pyramid scheme, or fixing interest rates for "a while" until...

    Until what? Until we build a million more homes? What happens then, 2 million more needed? Until a one bedroom apartment is a million euro? Until there are 5 bedrooms to rent in a country at a cost of 20k per month? 400k homeless?

    Peak of the peaks is where we are. It's broken beyond repair. There's no return of "normal" coming.

  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ BobbyMalone

    Nobody knows what's coming down the line - anyone who does is talking out of their hole. The people who 'called' the last one were just guessing as well. Even the normal cycle of capitalism (growth/crash/retraction/growth) might not be playing out this time, as governments seem to have a different way of approaching debt.

    If you can afford to buy and it makes sense for what you have planned for the next two decades or so, then go for it - although I wouldn't be buying for investment purposes myself. Another thing to take into account for those looking at 2012 prices: the bottoming-out took a good 3/4 years, and many people still couldn't afford to buy because either they didn't have jobs or the banks wouldn't lend to them, even if they did have jobs.

  • Registered Users Posts: 36,507 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles

    In this country, there were 800 odd places to rent a week or so ago, everything from single bedrooms to entire homes. 800, for a nation. Personal and social mobility has ground to a halt, with no letup in sight.

    No there wasn't, there was 900 odd places up in the

    People I know with accommodation to rent actively stay away from advertising them online, same with holiday lets, etc.

    RE the OP, the pressure on housing is 2 fold at the moment, it's not just supply and demand but building material prices.

    Inflation will peak and come back down, this will then in turn have a knock on effect for supply.

    House prices will invariably always increase, so it's never really a bad time to buy if it's a home you plan of living in long term.

    Far more important considerations would be your employment security and cost of borrowing.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,209 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly

    A big crash coming that will make 2009 like a tea party.

    Economies will tank, property prices will plummet. Costs will spiral upwards.

  • Registered Users Posts: 36,507 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles

    Oh it was 900 instead of 800. Thank goodness for that, we almost had a housing crisis there for a second.

    You missed the point, but that's okay, there was also 15,000+ properties for sale on the same site, it's a sellers markets at the minute so that will also have a negative effect on available rentals.

    You say house prices will "invariably" increase. Really? So there is literally no upper limit?

    You seem surprised by this? 😕

    Everything invariably will rise in price given the passage of time. It's the rate of increase that fluctuates.

    I don't know when the last time you went for a pint was, but it's longer 6d.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,764 ✭✭✭ Cordell

    How many years you reckon we still have? Because first time I remember hearing this was some 25 years ago and unfortunately the one that told me so passed away due to old age so I can't ask him again, so therefore I'm asking you: when? are we there yet? will it be before or after fusion energy, which was also just a few years away for the past 40 years.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,652 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio

    Property prices will plummet.

    Why? Not because the demand isn't there, only because the demand can't get cash to buy a house.

    So waiting for prices to crash is a mugs game, since you may not be able to buy a house when the time comes, unless you're sitting on a few hundred k.

  • Registered Users Posts: 48 porkmaster

    I didn't miss your other point of things being advertised elsewhere. It's just that it's a moot point. Daft is a very good indicator, some bloke talking over a hedge to his neighbours dog about a spare room is not.

    When people's wages are increasing lock step with housing costs, that's fine. But that doesn't happen, isnt happening, and will not happen. And the divide between affordability and increased costs is right here for you to see. Housing crisis. "Crisis". Have you heard that one before, maybe some time over the last number of years? Crisis.

    I don't want to hear fictional bed time stories about pyramid schemes and how we just need more houses, and then more people, and then more houses, and then more people, and then more houses. All while affordability decreases again and again.

    Enough is enough. Time is going to rapidly bear out the inadequacies of such poor ideas. It's not an accident we are where we are.

  • Registered Users Posts: 48 porkmaster

    I'd say this time next year, if things keep apace. Yeah I could well be wrong. I'm not particularly fussed about being mystic meg.

    The thing is this, it's not about predicting the future. It's about recognising the current state of things, and it is more than fair to say that things are broken beyond belief. I named a few of them above.

    I'm not predicting a recession, I'm expecting a complete economic realignment of some sort. Chaos first, of course. For the simple reason that now, as things have been building up to now, it cannot last. It's chronic.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,764 ✭✭✭ Cordell

    It's about recognising the current state of things

    That's exactly what it is and exactly where your prediction fails to acknowledge that whoever makes the state of things as they are also makes the rules, that is to put it simply. I recommend you to watch The Big Short (again if you already have) and you will see that the economic model of the world already came crashing down, it was propped up again and it's still like nothing happened, just a few adjustments here and there.

  • Registered Users Posts: 36,507 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles

    What's the solution porkmaster?

    Let me get a pen. Go!

  • Registered Users Posts: 48 porkmaster

    It was all basically kicked down the road.

    Here we are. Now it's much worse.

    It can't go on. It's a pyramid scheme. Or the way I like to visualize it, it's an upside down pyramid swaying back and forth on its point as yet another level is added atop. Maybe it's more like Jenga.

    As it's one of the most outrageous examples of economic blindness, the one million migrants needed for pensions really sums up the state of play. Being serious, what is actually going to happen there? You can't tweak or adjust your way out of that. It's not long to go. The fallout could be happening all ready.

    Pressure can only increase so much until something breaks. I see it manifesting now, all around us.

  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ Aubree Fancy Fax

    You won’t find any crystal balls on this thread but there’s a few things to consider.

    1. Interest rate rises reported soon from ECB - so with mortgage rates increasing cost of borrowing higher, this will have a small cooling or slowing down on prices - but may mean you can borrow less too
    2. My own belief is that apartment prices are well above their market value because 2-3 bed semis are in short supply- I think some prices for 1-2 bed apartments are just mad relative to their 3 bed semi house cousins- steer clear of one bed apartments if you can as their prices will tumble at a higher rate if market collapses- if money is tight try a 2 bed and rent out one of the rooms - but place all the income into your mortgage as this will help insulate you from a property price reduction later if it occurs and might help you steer clear of negative equity
    3. You can see yourself what a war in Ukraine has done to food and energy prices- who knows what will happen next but that sort of thing could happen at any stage- if you are working in a solid job with a level of security then you might be ok
    4. Even at your age, consider working in a tax free country like UAE for 3-4 years- a great way to get a solid chunk of change for a deposit but you’ll still need to live frugally if the lump sum you save is to be worth that hassle as accommodation and cost of living even over there can be pricey.

  • Registered Users Posts: 48 porkmaster

    I don't need to to be able to fix your car, but I can easily tell you that it's wrapped around a lamp post and fit for the scrapyard.

    Or people can sit in the seat and make "vroom vroom" noises and pretend it works, that they'll be back home in a few minutes.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,764 ✭✭✭ Cordell

    It was all basically kicked down the road.

    Down a road they own and that they can extend indefinitely. I'm old enough to be hearing the same thing for decades, so please trust me, nothing is gonna happen. It will carry on forever with the occasional stumble and rearrangement, as it was until now.

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