Property predictions best guess

Boggles · 19-05-2022 2:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085062#Comment_119085062

Well we have mechanics and insurance for that.

So just loud noises no proposed opinions on solutions?

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 2:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085153#Comment_119085153

That's right, "just loud noises".

The very real housing crisis is a loud noise.

The very real pension crisis is a loud noise.

Easily muffled noises, apparently,by the worshippers of the pyramid.

Nobody need wonder how we've squeezed ourselves into this trap; it's ignorance. Ignorance has brought us to this point. Need a million more migrants for pensions? Not a whisper, heads into the sand.

It's like an interference timing belt in an engine. The ineptitude and ignorance has sunk into this country so successfully that it has interwined itself around every facet of function. When it snaps, and you can practically hear the straining already, it's going to catastrophically bugger up everything.

And that's what you get. Then they'll be out in the streets and plastered on the television and internet 24/7 crying about their circumstances. "How was I to know?!". I've no sympathy for purposeful ignorance anyway.

SEPT 23 1989 · 19-05-2022 2:51pm

Its a home not an investment if you can cover the mortgage ever month what difference does it make?

prices will rise and fall many times over the lifetime of your mortgage

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 2:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085097#Comment_119085097

Don't worry about me, it won't affect me in the slightest. I'm thinking of the country.

I know what you're saying, but to me it's just gone too far this time. Change is inevitable when you have a shooting gallery of massive intractable issues. Something's going to give soon.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 2:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085376#Comment_119085376

lol.

That's a no so.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 3:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085149#Comment_119085149

It's not just supply.

You mention giving away social housing, don't forget the unmentionable, they are being given away to people from anywhere on earth if they meet the criteria. In a housing crisis. Hare-brained.

Another little ditty is the Ukrainian crisis. They've practically shouted out loud that they intend to build long term housing for them. 10's of thousands, maybe more, why not? All in a worsening housing crisis. Again, hare-brained. Not a single thought to the present problems, not a single thought to the future.

Ignorance.

There's nothing normal about this, it has been in construction for over a decade and it's just not going to last much longer. You don't need a finger in the air of a hurricane to guess what's happening.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 3:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085559#Comment_119085559

Laughing out loud, no, roaring out loud at the problems.

You do realize that you are purposefully ignoring the problems, trying to twist it into "look at this fella, he can't solve the worlds problems....*leap of faith*....therefore there is no problem".

Or do you realise that?

Laughing out loud. Chortle chortle.

https://ibb.co/VWvx42v

Boggles · 19-05-2022 3:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085617#Comment_119085617

Why are you pretending like you have discovered some problems that no one else knows about? 😂

You are about 2 posts off fully fledged replacement theory ranting, I'd give it a miss this week lad.

Maybe sign up again next week. Have a good one. 👍️

Sunny Disposition · 19-05-2022 3:14pm

There's a correction coming, as surely as Christmas is, but when is the big question. Supply is increasing very quickly after Covid delays, it'd be even quicker except for shortages of labour and materials, and there will be progress on those within two years. Also we are on the brink of having an SF government who will spend big (and probably unwisely) on public housing. They may also take action against short term lets (they should).

At the moment the market is still out of control for a number of reasons, but it is going to turn. The problem for people who have never bought a house before is you don't know how long it will take. If you're over 35 you don't want to wait 3-5 years. If you get to 40 you might struggle to ever get a mortgage.

A big factor for someone like the OP is the price of rent. Prices are really high, and the OP can use that to their advantage. If I was the OP what I'd try and do is buy a 2-3 bed property and rent out at least one room for as much as possible.

In short, it's not a good time to buy but if you're the OPs age you can't wait forever and need to buy relatively soon. Do so, and try to protect yourself from the correction by taking in tenants for a couple of years.

Gusser09 · 19-05-2022 3:37pm

How long do you think the correction will last this time?

I can't see the arse falling out of it though.

Subzero3 · 19-05-2022 3:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058246461/property-predictions-best-guess

My advice is built an extension on to your parents, self contained flat perhaps. Any other cash you have or a loan you can give to your parents to get your name on the house. They get an early pension from u and you get a house and future asset.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 3:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085632#Comment_119085632

I'm pretending like I've discovered something new?

No. The only surprise is the never-ending well of ignorance that many people have.

Let me sum up your ignorance.

1) you come along and essentially say "it's all grand, nothing to worry about"

2) I list out many things that are wildly out of control. To which you completely skip any of the issues and go straight to "even if there were problems, how would you solve them so har har? You can't, so now there are no problems!"

That's what you've contributed. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. You're a pyramid worshipper that believes everything is a temporary blip on the road to never-ending growth. And do you know what they call people who buy into pyramid scheme con-jobs? Yeah, you do.

Give us a laugh. Where/how are the million extra migrants needed to sustain pensions going to live by 2050? Tell me more about your infallible sustainable vision of the future.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 3:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085803#Comment_119085803

Where/how are the million extra migrants needed to sustain pensions going to live by 2050

And we are off.

I imagine you will burn brightly. Godspeed. 🤟

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 4:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085834#Comment_119085834

Go on then....where do you fit a million extra migrants needed to sustain pensions by 2050 into a crippled housing market?

It's one of the easiest questions that points to unsustainability. It sums up so much of how we got to where we are, the rampant ignorance of reality.

Or do you have nothing to say about anything?

Boggles · 19-05-2022 4:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085856#Comment_119085856

Leitrim.

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 4:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085867#Comment_119085867

Is it fair to say then, after running around in circles after you, that you really don't have a clue as to the problems facing the country right now and into the future?

All while you're here telling others it will be fine?

Yes. Yes, it is fair to say.

You don't have breeze where a million extra migrants are going to go. More to the point, you don't care, otherwise you'd have thought about and therefore have something to say about it. Praise be to Ra, and no more.

No need to get to the more complex questions surrounding the housing disaster in this country and elsewhere.

If people want to bet their futures on this pyramid, go for it. Don't plead ignorance later.

kippy · 19-05-2022 4:16pm

It's a mess, no doubt about it.

The increasing interest rates coming at the end of the year from the ECD, the inflation in labout and materials will lead at least to a stablisation of prices.

Social housing policy is a major driver of the cost of houses increasing. Councils buying up full estates or parts of estates to house tenants while there aren't enough houses available is a major driver of cost inflation. The amount of red tape required to build a house is beyond reckless at this stage. Every scheme the state implement to make houses more "affordable" do the opposite.

At some point something has to give - just very little sign of it at the minute.

While interest rate rises might be good to stabilise house prices, they aren't really a good thing at all. Makes it more difficult for existing mortgage holders pay their mortgage and more difficult for applicants to get a mortgage (again this should lead to stabilisation or reduction in prices).

I've a number of family members looking to move from renting to purchase a house or looking to sell a smaller house and upsize and it's a trying time for them, no more or less than anyone in the same boat.

My personal feeling, and this wouldn't have changed in the past twenty year is, if the property is somewhere you can see yourself living for 20 years plus, you have a relatively stable job, are in the position to buy the house and afford the mortgage with a few percent interest rate hikes built in, then you should by the property.

The issue, as we know, is there really aren't enough properties on the market and those that are of good quality tend to go for tens of thousands over asking.

Where it goes from here? I don't think we are at the peak of craziness in some parts of the country that we were at in 2006/2007 but we are very close to it - all the signs point to a stabilisation or reduction in prices as interest rates will make a dent in affordability however no more than back on 06 and 07 it's hard predict what will happen.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085920#Comment_119085920

You don't have breeze where a million extra migrants are going to go

Sure you stated as fact we will need them, so if we need we need them, there is no way around it.

The solution is simple, start building loads of homes.

Out of interest where did you get the million figure from, I imagine the CSO was it?

You wouldn't have a link would you?

porkmaster · 19-05-2022 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086002#Comment_119086002

"The solution is simple, start building loads of homes" for the million extra migrants needed to prop up our unsustainable country model.

That's the kind of thinking we need. Now we're getting to the heart of it.

I never heard "just build more" in 2016.

Never heard "just build more" in 2017.

Never heard "just build more" in 2018.

Never heard "just build more" in 2019.

Never heard "just build more" in 2020.

Never heard "just build more" in 2021.

Never heard "just build more" in 2022.

Fresh thinking. Non-pyramid ideas. I like it.

I have an even better idea, let's build....ONE BILLION homes! Let's do it before Christmas.

https://ibb.co/HTs8D7F

Not that it's the only housing issue, but to house a million extra migrants you'd probably want about 300k homes, let's say. And then the government manifesto some years back was to have a million extra people by 2030. Hmm!

So, about 30k extra homes per year would be needed to house this particular cohort of migrants. That's sounds familiar doesn't it, that approximate 30k builds a year?

Just can't put my finger on the familiarity of hearing about 30k builds per year. Reminiscent!

Anyway, on a completely unrelated note, you'll hear regularly on the news that the government are pinky-swear going to reduce housing pressure on Irish people by building about 30k homes per year and it has been working like a charm, wouldn't everyone agree?

You see, THAT 30k homes needed for migrants is not related at all at all at all with the 30k they build every year that they say is to house you, to help you. That's why affordability just keeps getting better.

All in, this is a shambling wreck that's going to break soon. What a surprise.

As for educating the quoted person with links to information, no I won't. If you care, you'll find it yourself easily. In other words, you won't.

Boggles · 19-05-2022 4:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086074#Comment_119086074

Like I said, if you are stating as a fact they will be needed they will have to live somewhere.

There is only one solution to that like I have already stated.

We won't be able to get them in if there is no place to live.

I imagine given Irelands rather younger population this will be a European / World problem which will be felt more acutely elsewhere first.

As for educating the quoted person with links to information, no I won't. If you care, you'll find it yourself easily.

That's not very polite. 😕

Pussyhands · 19-05-2022 11:06pm

People keep saying this time it's different. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Yes we don't have 100% mortgages but we do have people who are so desperate to buy because they think they're going to be left behind, thus making values out of whack.

All it takes is a hit to the jobs market and people start putting things off. Foreigners start to leave Ireland because they have no worked. From April 2009 to April 2010, 75% of people who emigrated were non Irish nationals. We now have far far more foreign nationals here. 37k emigrated in the year I mentioned. These foreigners have nothing tying them here.

Once the rental demand cools, the yield on rentals drops meaning prices will drop. This also means more people will be less desperate to buy because rent is better value. Then people might be worried about job losses and not want to tie themselves in hundreds of thousands of debt.

StevenToast · 19-05-2022 11:13pm

2 words....

SOFT LANDING....

BattleCorp · 20-05-2022 8:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085786#Comment_119085786

And get a legal document giving your parents the right to live there until the end of their days. I've seen a case where parents signed over their house to a son and when the son's marriage split up, the parents were up sh1t creek as the ex wife owned half of the house.

TheValeyard · 20-05-2022 8:46pm

..

Sunny Disposition · 21-05-2022 8:18am

No politician ever likes to talk about a link between immigration and the housing crisis, they’ll be called racist if they do. But it’s very easy for people to come here from far larger countries and with our boom/bust economy we’re going to find it very hard to achieve a relatively stable housing market.

No one likes to say it, and it’s certainly not a criticism of immigrants, but immigration policy since 04 is not suitable for Ireland and is by far and away the biggest reason for the housing crisis.

In Ireland people look down their nose at the UK and so-called Brexiteers, but the UK had a far more mature debate on immigration than has ever happened in Ireland. The issue was discussed sensibly on numerous programmes with an acknowledgment of the economic positives and the impact on things like schools and housing.

Sadly, in Ireland no one is going to ever even acknowledge what’s happening. You never hear any discussion about the underlying reasons for the housing crisis.

macvin · 21-05-2022 8:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084711#Comment_119084711

Where do you get your rental figure?

I hope it's not daft?

I recently rented a house I have in Sligo after previous tenants bought a house.

Advertising was not even part of the conversation with the agent as he had a list of people wanting a in place.

Virtually no rental properties are advertised on daft these days. Doesn't stop newspapers creating a story around it.

Mad_maxx · 21-05-2022 8:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119092758#Comment_119092758

Ireland is like a small village in terms of our media, they all know each other and they all think the same and like small village people attending mass and devoutly uttering the same prayers

The Irish media view immigration as something unconditionally good ,something holy ,belief in its goodness is an article of faith, to think otherwise is heresy

It's why I never take any debate on property or rental market seriously, that gimp Tony Groves was on the Claire Byrne show last Monday spitting venom left right and centre about lack of housing ,the guy is a PBP supporter and open borders advocate

Wanderer78 · 21-05-2022 9:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119092758#Comment_119092758

once again, the free movement of capital has caused far greater damage than the free movement of people, but it is difficult to see this free movement of capital.

our property problems are largely related to modern political and economic ideologies, including the relative free movement of capital, and ultimately due to the financialisation of our markets, in particular our property markets, whereby major sectors such as the fire(finance, insurance and real estate), are encouraged and facilitated in dominating our society and economy, and whos aim is to ultimately maximize returns at all costs. this results in effectively hyper inflated property markets, which in return all leads to serious supply problems along side these hyper inflated markets, this has occurred in most countries it has been attempted, i.e. virtually nothing to do with immigration!