May 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for May 2022

Bonus forecasts are visually arranged with warmest to right.

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Cork 8th

adam240610__ (-2) _ 12.2 _ 27.0 _ -0.8 _ 113 _ 103 ____ 16.6

Dacogawa _________ 12.2 _ 26.0 _ -0.8 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 16.8

Tae laidir __________ 12.2 _ 24.7 __ 1.4 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 16.8

MrSkinner ________ 12.1 _ 26.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 090 __ 14.9

Joe Public ___ (-1) __ 12.1 _ 24.3 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 ______ 18.1

waterways _________ 12.0 _ 26.8 _ -0.5 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 17.1

Bsal ______________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 16.0

Pauldry ____________11.9 _ 24.8 _ -0.2 _ 096 _ 104 _____ 17.1

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -1.1 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 15.8

john mac __________ 11.8 _ 26.5 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 103 ____ 16.4

Appledrop __________11.8 _ 24.1 __ 0.3 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15.1

___ Con Sensus _____ 11.8 _ 24.3 _ -0.8 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 16.2

Mr stonewall ________11.7 _ 24.2 __ 0.8 _ 114 _ 104 ____ 16.7

Artane2002 ________ 11.5 _ 24.3 _ -1.7 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 15.8

sryanbruen _________11.5 _ 24.1 _ -1.8 _ 085 _ 100 __ 15.1

Kindred Spirit _______11.5 _ 23.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 16.8

Dasa29 ____________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.0

Jpmarn ____________11.4 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 125 _ 105 _____ 17.8

Sunflower3 _________11.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 098 ___ 16.2

Danno ____________ 11.3 _ 21.7 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 125 __ 15.6

Gonzo _____________11.2 _ 23.1 _ -1.4 _ 105 _ 090 _ 14.1

___ NormaL ________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.2

DOCARCH _________ 10.9 _ 24.2 _ -0.3 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 16.1

__________________________________________

Group consensus appears to be rather warm, but close to average in cloud and rainfall.

Scoring for the bonus (Max at Cork Sunday 8th)

The outcome was 14.7 but if eventually lower we will maintain these scores anyway.

10 pts (14.1 to 15.1)

-- MrSkinner __ 14.9

-- Appledrop __ 15.1

-- sryanbruen _ 15.1

-- Gonzo _____ 14.1

9 pts (15.2 to 15.6)

-- __NormaL __ 15.2

-- Danno _____ 15.6

8 pts (15.7 to 15.9)

-- M.T. Cranium ___ 15.8

-- Artane2002 ____ 15.8

7 pts (16.0, 16.1)

-- Bsal _________ 16.0

-- Dasa29 ______ 16.0

-- DOCARCH ____ 16.1

6 pts (16.2 to 16.4)

-- _ Con Sensus _ 16.2

-- Sunflower3 ___ 16.2

-- john mac ____ 16.4

5 pts (16.5 to 16.8)

-- adam240610 __16.6

-- Mr stonewall __ 16.7

-- Dacogawa ____ 16.8

-- Tae laidir _____ 16.8

-- Kindred Spirit _ 16.8

4 pts (16.9 to 17.5)

-- waterways ___ 17.1

-- Pauldry ______17.1

3 pts (17.6 +)

-- Jpmarn _____ 17.8

-- Joe Public ___ 18.1

I thought it seemed a bit high but any value up to 14.7 will produce the same scoring anyway.

IMT now up to 12.8 with the third week average 13.5 which was 2.1 above normal.

MAX only 21.0 and MIN is so high that we haven't really had a sighting, around 4 C possibly.

PRC has increased to 101% with 148% of normal in the third week.

SUN may be up slightly from previous estimate (75%) but there are only two of the six stations with reports in today's weekly report, both near 100%. So I would estimate maybe up to 80% now. May be able to refine that in a day or two, but will need to wait on the MS to get a good value anyway.

BONUS was 14.7 and scored a while ago.

That seems to be the lowest hourly, wonder if the MAX today will exceed 21.0 anywhere? That would be quite rare to establish a MAX and MIN on the same day (for the entire month). 

Anyone know what's going on with boards? I cannot type anything here, the site keeps freezing up. I go to another site's window and type my posts there in a reply box, and block copy the results, come back over here and post them that way. This led to my daily forecast being posted on net-weather by accident the other day (for ten seconds until I realized what I had done). Probably nobody saw it in that ten seconds. Anyway, if there's a known cure for this jerky boards behaviour I would like to know about it. I don't get this on any other site that I visit (and I cleaned the cache etc). 

After four weeks ...

IMT at 12.7, fourth week average was 12.4 which is 0.5 above normal. I could see this finishing around 12.6 with somewhat cooler weather the next two days.

MAX 21.0 and MIN 1.9. Our lowest max forecast was 21.7 and our highest MIN forecast was 1.4, so full assistance of minimum progression is still on the table. (a raw score of 18/20 or better would reduce the field's boost by 50%). That MIN is probably accurate but I could have missed something lower before I was really looking for a low value, MS will reveal all (also not sure we won't go lower on Tuesday morning possibly, slim chance -- max is probably safe enough).

PRC has fallen back to 91% of normal with the fourth week at 62%. The amount of rain predicted for tomorrow and Tuesday is probably not going to change that very much either way (factoring in today's dry scenario).

SUN has improved to around 85% with the fourth week average 122.5% (735/600). With the third week being a blind estimate, this is a rather approximate estimate but I would speculate that the finish might be close to 90%.

BONUS was already scored.

A June forecast contest thread will be opened tonight (your time) so look for that tomorrow.