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I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

  • 13-05-2022 12:27am
    #1
    Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭


    As the thread title says, that is some of what I like to do on here, all in a sporting fashion 😊

    Here be a good place for those of us who likes to bet the horsies and put our picks up. This thread is in the 'betting forum' specifically so as not to sully the once great forum that has now descended into [insert choice word/s here] partly, or so I'm led to believe, on account of me.

    NO MORE...

    No More shall I insert any of my ill thought out, aimless and wanton meanderings, into a forum where 'knowledgeability' is considered paramount 😏 ... I, for all those in tents and porpoises, #just like to bet, and mebbe have 1 or 5 (or any amount 😊) likeminded folks who also wish to post their picks/thoughts/whatever, without being ridiculed or denigrated by the "in the know/nudge nudge/wink wink/'say nottin to know one about that one i gave ya' /shrewd horsey types"

    Another thing that I'd like to point out - no one needs to hang about, or be 'on-call' so to speak, to respond to other posters' responses etc,, That's my thoughts on that subjecto - others may differ.. If ya wanna say summit/put up a pick etc, and then leave thread off, dat's fine an all. I wouldn't expect it of meself, so yeah, my 2centivos. No fun in that - might as well be working if that's the case 😁


    Don't know the difference between a Novice Hurdle or a Maiden Hurdle?? - Who cares? - Not no-one on here if the thread pans out.

    Anyways, w/o further todo, a pick (or 5 😂)


    8.55 Hamilton Friday 13th 2022

    The last race of t'day and the first that caught me eye - if have any further thoughts on any other races, I'll duly share them - if I can find the time 🤣

    Looks like it's raining in the Hamilton area of Scotland, and the going is currently soft-good to soft in places. That going will do for me, as that's what I'm basing my selections/picks on. For a bit of early doors entertainment, without being too scientific, I shall try to guess (dat's wat it's all about, this game) how t'race will pan out (softish is the going now, and am hoping it either improves a tad or even worsens a smidge; but as long as there's no heavy in description, then that's a start, as that could throw me logic intee a cocked hat, and dat will nae dee 😃)

    All joking aside, I think this Class 6 5f. 7yds. Handicap will be won by one what leads early, or aint too far off the early pace.

    QUANAH 15/2 This 6yr old can put in a decent showing on a going day, and is dropping down the weights. e/w potential. Needs a return to form, but Jason Hart takes the mount, and is a good man from the front.

    SHESADABBER 13/2 e/w NAP (don't know what 'NAP' means, but it denotes a person's bet of the day) THREE times a CD (Course & Distance) winner. Not a bad run last time out (lto) after an absence of over four months, this mare acquitted herself well over track and trip, when coming third, on ground that probably wasn't soft enough for Mick Mullineaux's charge. I expect a bold showing.

    One more 😊

    NACHO 11/2 e/w Came 2nd the last time Paul Mulrennan was on board. That was at Chepstow over the same trip as today's one.

    Last one 😄

    THE GLOAMING 3/1 Could be the best one here, shortest price of all - just a win on her.

    Of them four picks, I'm going each way (that's how I do 😎) on three of them, even though their prices aint 'massive' , just so as to give an added interest. Quanah and Nacho are more 'hopeful' picks than anything else, but not completely without a chance. This is a Class6 sprint race, so inconsistency is just as usual as the calibre of beast involved, is one of poor quality.


    BOLD STATEMENT TIME!! I predict that the jolly (favourite) STRONSAY 15/8 NB (simple this one 'NB' = 'Next Best' , as in the second best bet of the day, or, if it aint so good of a pick, you might could say Nota Bean, if it don't oblige 🤣) WILL NOT even be in the first three here. I expect him to be too far back over this, the minimum trip, to have any chance of 'troubling the judge' here. Don't know what price Stronsay will be to 'not come placed' , but hopefully less than even money - all depends on 'The Market' / 'Liquidity' and the likes.. Usually the most 'action' on the 'betting exchanges' (or punters betting against other punters, and not with the traditional bookmakers) happens a few minutes before the 'off' (time the race is due to start)

    # I don't "just like to bet" , but, whatever else I likes to do, is pretty much irrelevant to the thread.


    So, that's four EDIT five picks here : three i'll back each way , and a 'place-lay' (not to come 'placed' - most races have three places, for 'place' purposes) recommendation - for anyone who may be interested ☺️

    FIVE picks in ONE race is about as far as my lunacy extends, but just to 'show me hand' 'early doors' , I often like/have more than one selection in a given race. Don't expect to have that many picks in every race I have an opinion on - if I can average around 1.5 picks per race, that'll be acceptable (says me 😅) , but I hope to get this thread 'off to a winner' , so this race fit the profile, in that there's a few in it with 'squeaks' (chances) at decent odds.


    Above all else, will hope there's no 'agg' on here or anyone having a go at other posters (he says - might could be no one cares about this thread at all, which is all good, as I like talking to meself anyroad ™️) . Almost as important as trying to find them elusive winners.


    ™️ Talking/typing/whatever in a Northern England ahksent aint my 'Trademark' , but it show do amuse me, so if ya don't like it, then tough 😂


    I have thoughts on betting (or 'punting' as we likes to call it) being an art form, and I may expand on that at a later stage,,, but that's all for now,,,

    Good Night and Good Luck :) :)

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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Comments

  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    2.50 Newmarket SOAPY STEVENS 7/2 win

    A very open race this; could make a good case for any of these winning it. Mark Johnston's horse has the lowest weight here, should like the good ground, is able to take a lead (a few in this like to get to the front early) , has a hood for keeping him settled in the stalls. He's down in grade from his third over Course & Distance lto, when he went wide and had to travel that bit further. Has won at this trip before at a different track when the going was good to firm - he would probably not mind a bit of rain either, should it rain at 'headquarters' ,,, Is a fair price at 7/2 - worth a bet at 11/4 or bigger imo..

    The no. 1 horse of Prescott's, Summer's Knight 9/4, was the other one I was torn about - but he's a shorter price than my pick here, and hasn't had a race in over 230 days, so enough to leave him off for today.

    Can't always look at the form and say for sure " 'x' is going to win, so I'll back him/her"; or 'I don't know what's going to win, so no bet' Punting don't really work like that for us who like to bet most days 😊 It's a combination of: "I really think this horse will win, so not too concerned about it's price" , and "I'm not too sure about it's chances relative to the rest of the field, but it's a 'fair' (value) price, so I'll take me chances" ; and a combination 'tween the two, and everything else in between.

    In case I didn't mention it earlier: "I love punting" 😁

    til (a lot) later 😋

    leff



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    3.50 Newbury RUMI 18/1 e/w

    Very wide open race, just looked at a few of them. Has ran well on the All Weather at a similar level. First go on the turf could be the key here. A lottery this,, small each way here.. Some books should be going 5 places here..

    g'luck :)



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Soapy ran into one today :( Nate The Great 7 lengths way too good



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    7.20 Hamilton

    FARHAN 1pts win 5/4

    GET SHIRTY 1pts e/w 5/1

    1/2pts rev forecast

    Stand on me - job's a gud'un

    g'luck 😁



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    did alright at Hamilton there:

    Onwards -

    Saturday 14th May

    6.0'c Chelmsford

    Had a few thoughts written out, but I lost the ruddy draft 😒

    Anyway,

    Ones with a chance

    STREET POET 6/1 e/w squeak - hard to see this 9yr old win, but deffo can't be ruled out for a place , REFORMED CHARACTER 7/2 e/w NAP good draw - 2nd at Lingfield 2 runs back reads well here, GLOBAL STYLE 14/1 e/w not sure why I'm liking this 38 race maiden - outside bet

    None of these have any massive appeal at prices, but will do for an interest.. just seen Global Style was 33s earlier - fúkkit anyway; some others presumably think this is a poor race, with plenty of opposable ones.

    Ones vulnerable

    PRISCILLA'S WISH 8/1, AMALFI SALSA 13/2 , DORS TOYBOY 11/2 - will consider these for 'place-lays' for various reasons - 1mile too far + poor draws won't help

    None of these are 'short enough' really for any place-lay bets atm, with the exception of Dors Toyboy, who'll not likely get any shorter than his current price - tho win prices don't always mean the shorter priced ones are shorter when going place-only, than the bigger priced ones might be ... Dors Toyboy worth a place lay @ 5/4 or less, and Amalfi Salsa @ 6/5 or less ,, Priscilla's Wish a place-lay proposition @ 13/8 or less

    dat's all for now

    g'luck :)



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  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    1.55 Wexford small e/w on IT'SALEADER 11/2



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    You helped me to make up my mind on Amalfi Salsa that came up in my alerts for today, no bet, thanks.



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    ♥️

    Congrats! You have got a 'like' from leffesem!



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Ta for your input j@u 😊

    

    ya, the more I look at that race, the more confused I am 

    Still think Reformed Character 7/2 is the most likely one,, A lot of money for One Step Beyond, who has a squeak i suppose,, the overnight 2nd or so fav Praying Mantis of Dave Loughnane; and who's having her first run since coming from Ireland, is a massive drifter..

    don't know what to think now about that race - Amalfi Salsa 15/2 is a good price now - her last five runs are creditable imo; would think she needs to get to the front early to have a chance, and, being drawn in 11, who knows? Poor enough horses all told, but I think I couldn't rule out a 'win only' bet on her - but not much each way appeal.

    Have had a look at today's/tomorrow's cards, and they aint that very appealing...

    all told 😃

    that we may have many winners on here 🙆

    :)



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    5.25 Wexford hopeful e/w on IN A NICE WAY 20/1

    think BEYOND AMBITIOUS is worth a speculative place-lay @ ~ 1.5

    g'luck



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  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    WALK IN THE BRISE 2/1 - chance a win



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    A lil e/w on KO KATIE 33/1 as well

    ok, that's enough done there 😃



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Paddy Mullins didn't cover himself in glory there - "imo"

    No joy :(

    enough for 2day

    g'luck all



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    8.40 Doncaster "the point and shoot 'get out stakes' "

    Pen landed on WENTWORTH FALLS 9/1 ew ,, not getting any younger, but goes well at C&D on top of the ground.. Wide open affair this - no point having multiple picks here,,

    Good Luck all 😊



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    8.20 Uttoxeter

    SOUL ICON 7/2 win - pillar to post hopefully,, another wide open race - keeping it simple and looking at top of market,, will likely know our fate early, will hope he's ready to go after an absence



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Sunday 15th May

    A few for today

    2.00 Killarney IGRAINE win 9/4 gen some 5/2 about,,,, Will she remedy her 'seconditis' later on?? don't know, but @ 9/4 or bigger, i'll have an interest in finding out 🙂

    ROCK YA BOY YA 2/1 gen for the win is interesting here,, don't know why he's vying for favouritism with the selection Igraine here,,, capable of going close is the best shout I can give Francis Casey's 4yr old gelding in this maiden,, if he's still the same price later, then a place-lay is the recommendation at 1.8 or shorter.

    2.30 Killarney MARVEL DE CERISY 10/11 the win price ,, has some decent form on soft 'under rules' ,, won a PtP on good ground - will chance a place-lay at no bigger than 1.5, to see if his 'try make all' style hurdling on better ground falls fair short here. Not sure what might win, but, and I'm going by his sire Masked Marvel here; I think he either needs further or else softer going.. Lay for the win as well at evens, or a smidge north of same.

    4.00 Killarney BAPTISM OF FIRE 7/2 win ,, Looks a very fair price in this 5-horse (likely no. 3 Grand Paradis is a non, or going to be, out of the 6 declared - GP aint in bettin leastways) horse race. Willie's Egality Mans might want softer, so looks as if Francis Casey's (also has Rock Ya Boy Ya in previous race, so will hope both his flop) Max Flamingo is the one to beat, but why he's even money fav is beyond me. He beat Bacardys two runs back in a 4 horse race in a moderate time,, Baptism Of Fire also beat Bacardys (in a different, and more recent race) lto.. time was nowt special mind, but a win's a win,, A change in tactics saw Baptism Of Fire prevail over close to C&D last time out,, Will hope the selection aint too keen to chase the pace (tho there doesn't look like anything that will 'go on' here) this time either

    1.52 Stratford ROYAL LAKE 11/4 win ,, Neil King's Give Me A Cuddle is very short @ ~ 5/4 on his first run over obstacles, and being stepped up trip too (tho the trip does look like it'll be fine),, Royal Lake showed improvement lto over a similar trip as today's, on his first 'good ground' hurdles' run,, It's possible Glengeever ~ 3/1 will try make all, and he'll likely be not too far away, and the hope also is that this will put the favourite's jumping under pressure; with Royal Lake getting involved at the end - tis the hope anyway,,

    3.22 Stratford PAW PAW 13/2 e/w.. Just five due to line up.. The 8/11 jolly ragamuffin is only having his second go over larger obstacles, and aint bombproof - he came 2nd lto, but made a few blunders - hoping he makes some more 🤣 😂 Gambie Tiep is a strange 2nd fav @ 3s; this will be his first chase outing after 3 goes over the lower obstacles.. Above Suspicion 13/2 hasn't done a lot in three chase goes; although they were Class 4s - Class 5 2day,, PAWPAW is only five, so is young enough for this type o thing,, Has never been chasing before, but is dropping down the weights, and has a nice name - enough for me to like,, Probably wouldn't back him otherwise, but the fact that the rest all look opposable, makes the Banbury handler's charge of interest here...

    2.52 Stratford TOP BRASS 5/2 win,, A seller with a lot of rubbish in it,, doesn't look massive value, the pick, but will only be his 4th run over hurdles,, has the first-time cheekpieces to aid, and is fav, so must be best expected to prevail here,,,


    g'luck everybody on what will be (likely) a don't have to run day (for me anyhow 😃) for most of us, and hope all my win and e/w selections all do 'run' , and run well 😁



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    PS : As there wasn't enough room in space provided for thread title, there weren't enough space for "I love to rant" 😃 , and indeed i do,, will hold fire on that anyroad fo' t'nonce 😃

    I should like to get down to discussing the 'artistry' aspect, as mentioned in me (pretty damn good - if i do say so myself) OP, at some stage also..

    Bonne Chance, Frohe Weihnachten agus Fare thee well folks 😁



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    I touched a bit on "ranting" and "art" earlier; but to bring some comedy to proceedings, I thought of a joke a while back

    it gave me a right good laugh, and therefore must be funny, on account of me being a good judge

    Here goes:


    I used to identify as a Sub-Saharan African

    but I'm all-white now! 😂

    Any and all positive feedback welcome 🙂



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Killarney

    3.30 BONARC 15/2 e/w In form lately, and won just two days ago,, race looks a lottery

    4.30 EFFERNOCK FIZZ 8/1 e/w Looks a reasonable price in a race where I can't see much with any strongish claims, 7lbs claiming jockey up, only the three chase runs thus far; plus first time in a chase with just her own sex as the competition,,

    First horse could be out of it on the hcap ratings, and the filly doesn't have the greatest of form,, Nonetheless, both these races look wide open,,

    ew dble also



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    raining outside - i dunno about down in t'Kingdom; ah well, we won't bother over-analyzing/worrying too much about that

    best get some shuteye before proceedings kick off

    😊



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I'm a bit annoyed to find out that Hughie ATR tipped Franz from my notebook Ripon this morning, which means that e/w price is gone. He's entered in 3:10 Ripon, now I'm hoping he's gonna flop cause I'm NOT taking him at that price on handicap debut, was 7/2, now 5/2. Maybe it's worth sticking with now drifted favourite or the 3rd in the betting, both finished close 2nds lto.



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Hugh's a bar-steward ,, wonder how long that 4/1 lasted with 365 - before it got the 'Taylor Treatment' 😏

    has some soft ground form in two decent runs that Franz - if he acts on better going, #i'd imagine it's a contest between your likee j@u, and the (well supported) ~ 11/8 fav Haunted Dream.. Haunted Dream is a bit keengoing, so that would be a negative in a Class 4, so i'd have to be against him here..

    Looks like Rollajam might lead, but even a decent clip mayn't see the jolly settle,,

    Still not sure about your pick j@u , but I admire your 'holding fire' on account of not liking the price a lot 😊 props for that! If ya don't back him, let's hope he's out with washing, and that there'll be another day for Kevin Ryan's colt.. 😀


    I got me bit of shuteye and ya inspired me to have a look at this one j@u 😊 #Being by Gleneagles, it's possible (assuming he's good enough) that FLIPPIN' ECK 33/1 might want further than the (almost) 10furlongs here, but he should like the ground, and i'll read *absolutely nowt into his comeback run lto at the course over a mile on soft going.

    *[maybe not 'absolutely' nowt, but he didn't run so well on his first run last year neither - so soft ground, and running all over the place probably reason enough to forget that run, and the cheekpieces are out today] Perhaps the race aint a 'match' after all,, we'll remain hopeful 🤗 Small ew on Flippin' Eck for me :) he's also 20/1 w/o fav, so i'll take that chance too 🤗

    gluck everybody ☺️



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    No joy in 1.52 - jolly wins - my pick folded a few out 😓



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I just couldn't leave alone and went for Adjuvant 4/1 in that 3:10 race 😂 hoping that this race comes too soon for the favorite and Franz will not handle the ground or the track or both, I'm pretty sure this is gonna backfire now but where's the thrill of it otherwise.



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Hup IGRAINE!!! 😁 Joey's jolly sluices up in Killarney 2'oc,, her 'seconditis' comes to an end, and am glad it was a lower number what proved the cure 😛



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    that's the ticket j@u 😁 Ilikethewayyou'rethinkin !



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    No joy in 2.30 K .. Marvel De Cerisy wins ☹️



  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Laid Gulmarg for a place here at Ripon - not so sure about 6fs



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    4:10 Ripon - Sandbeck is worthy favorite imo, and sure has plenty of improvement in her but I also like Selby's Pride at higher odds here who is still lightly raced too, has some good course form over 5f incl the win, this race is over 6f but trainer must know better entering her over longer distance again. She didn't make much impression lto in Chester when forced to race wide and soft ground didn't help the matter either, today she's back on the firmer surface and has a good draw to grab a rail to race on. I'll probably just stick a small bet on her in w/o fav market.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Congrats on getting that right, 6/4 returned but a winner is a winner and confidence boost that's for sure.



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