Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The fact is the builder will be on the hook for a higher payout if something goes wrong and that will have to be factored in if you think the insurance game will go ah sure no charge you havent dealt with insurance. Of course the insurance will go up.

It was unsustainable in the Celtic Tiger and people would have called you a fool as recently as 5 years ago to claim that Celtic Tiger prices were sustainable and that the only issue was the economy tanking. Yet, here we are again, even beyond Celtic Tiger prices, with the nation having walked eyes wide open into the inferno.

During the covid restrictions was our last chance to orchestrate a sustainable correction. By now, the soft landing is impossible, but it is interesting to see how people seem to completely ignore the red flags in the market and think what is happening is in any way sustainable, solely because it has been consistent, year-on-year inflation. Normalcy bias in the extreme.

Property prices nationally have increased by 117.3 per cent from their trough in early 2013 while Dublin prices have risen 122.1 per cent from their February 2012 low.

I do agree with you on that we need to keep the public sector middle management away and tender it out under conditions that will make savings and the savings passed on to the buyers.

300 jobs announced by Citi, 1,000 by Workday and Tik Tok hoping to grow it's Dublin workforce to 5,000. A lot of the big employers in Dublin, in the tech area, have only just started to bring people back to the office as well.

All the while there are now 465 ads for rentals in Dublin city.

It clearly doesn't add up and for some reason the penny is not dropping that our economy is going to stall and contract, unless we take extreme measures to dramatically reduce the cost of housing while at the same time bulking up supply. But for me that time has passed and the economic model has started to turn to sand in our hands and is now sifting between our fingers while we are powerless to stop it.

I don't think basic DIY should be on the secondary curriculum. People learn from their families how to change lightbulbs, don't they?

What the government are doing is raising the status of apprenticeships with the Technological Universities (more similar to how it is in Germany I believe) and Simon Harris has said the explicit aim of this new university policy is for more people to be drawn to apprenticeships.

you mention buses and it reminds me of a bus route in cork city that still had a bus conductor 15 years after they introduced paying the driver on the way into the bus…He was there till he retired…..if that is a good example of a well run semi state body and value for money then I will stick with private sector building whether directly for gov under contract or in the private sector

If someones liability increases even in NI the cost of insurance goes up.

Insurance costs in this country are a whole other kettle of fish - combination of price gouging from underwriters, and price gouging from the legal sector.

When fighting a claim and winning costs more than just paying out at the outset, you know the system is screwed up. Legal costs have significant impact on the cost of almost everything, passed on mostly via insurers.

That said, even if builders had to cover liabilities in building via their own insurance, cost to deliver should still work out cheaper than if the state had to build themselves, or if the builders had to raise finance themselves and build their own. State tendering for houses on state land is the cheapest and most effective way to deliver housing.

See the Independent today what ever about Ireland, but Germany, France and Italy Europe's major Economies have 6-10% Inflation indexed or linked bonds out of their total bonds. All this Inflation is really not looking good for them in particular Italy which is teetering on a knife edge this last few years.

House prices aren't going to drop any time soon, new builds are increasing circa €30k around here since the last phase but still affordable to those on higher incomes with HTB and those that cant afford the uplift are being forced to bid in the 2nd hand market driving up that too.

The two main risks I see at the moment are people signing up for a new build with a "you have to pay materials inflation" clause from the developer coming back to bite them big time and people signing up to sweet low fixed rates from banks with catastrophic variable rates, what are people guessing will be the available fixed rates in 5 years time?

The maths don't add up with new jobs announcements (remember, these are still only announcements) versus rentals and we are literally only a few weeks out of covid restrictions. Give it a year post-covid for the dust to settle, so come spring 2023 we will start to see the economy stalling.

While this is happening across the developed world, we seem to have arrived at the dysfunctional state a lot quicker than other economies. While there can be some argument that a lot of this is due to wider European and global issues, we seem to be the outlier. It is difficult to get good rented accommodation across European towns and cities but by no means not impossible. Dublin, it really does appear to be nigh on impossible unless someone can come on here and tell me otherwise.

It must be a mix of issues that have now all come together and left us where it is now. Decades of not really having a serious willingness to treat renting as anything other than transient housing or just available for social housing with that stock diminished through sell offs with no real efforts to replace it, like for like.

Dublin - a rather unique example of a capital city, with predominately low rise housing stock. A population that never needed to, or even wanted to, consider apartment living as long term.

And 10 years + beyond the crash we appear to have arrived as the main exponent of this exercise by the financial property conglomerates, with our own government support, to deliver high end, in terms of cost, rented accommodation, for the benefit of the investor rather than the customer.

I'm sure there are more reasons but they seem to be the main ones to me.

another kite flier.

bought 1075k in 2019.

at 1.4mm you can do better than an estate outside m50, even in this market.

Does that mean USA are also in trouble with their TIPS?

I think those countries are more concerned about QE ending and QT starting…. You don’t need to increase the ECB rate to fight inflation there are other tools which are already being used that has resulted in higher rates