Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

Some more echos from 05/06 and the celtic tiger bubble. This time its different

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40851629.html

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118930260#Comment_118930260

building on flood plains? What could possibly go wrong!

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118930041#Comment_118930041

For those of you that have listened to the podcast, back in 2011/2012 during peak despair from the crash, many INDEPENDENT economists strongly argued for a site value tax instead of the current property tax. Given the conditions at the time it would have been the perfect time to implement it

Ronan Lyons was amongst the most voiceferous of those. He is the economist for Daft.ie. Not only was he promoting it he went to the bother of doing the work to value every site and offered his expertise to the state to help implement it. Unfortunately the wrong option for the country was taken and as they we are where we are now.

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/02/10/would-you-rather-tax-gardens-or-jobs-the-site-value-tax-debate/

A bit like the water meters when a German company offered to install meters for free, that would have got in the way of a company close to a political party getting the contract and yet ultra left get blamed for its failure rather than the implementation by the then gov

Jonnyc135

Hearing alot of rumours this last 2 weeks about PJ Hegartys being in bother. These lads are probably the second biggest construction company after Sisk, no smoke without fire, this high inflation and fixed pricing seems to be causing havoc in the construction sector.

wassie

They have taken a big hit on a couple of large projects recently completed which is probably the source of that. These are projects that have run over several years. Covid disruptions & complex builds more at play than current inflationary & supply constraints. But they have quite a few projects that they have extremely good margins on which you won't hear about on the rumour mill.

Edit: that being said, I dont claim to have inside knowledge of the company itself. Sh!t does happen and if a player of the size of PJH went to the wall, this would have serious ramifications in the construction industry affecting a lot of projects across a number of sectors.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931019#Comment_118931019

Yeah as you say it's only rumours that I am hearing but the fact I have heard off a good few different people in the construction sector brews my suspicion. As you say a huge player in the construction sector, if in fact they are looking for investors to pump in liquidity then it could be a perfect storm when interest rates and monetary tightening beginning to happen.

I'd say the idea of retiring early is gone out the window with the way house prices are going

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118924898#Comment_118924898

workday would of been an easy company to join in the early days in Dublin, but now its gone the other way of big IT companies, and have many rounds of technical interviews google style to filter out the best of the best

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118925507#Comment_118925507

Probably because people wernt expecting so much money to be printed though covid. The last recession didnt have this approach. Now we have sky high inflation.

It seems if economy does good house prices go up, if economy does bad house prices go up faster

babyducklings1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118925693#Comment_118925693

Why not teach diy courses at secondary school. It could be done in transition year, these are essential life skills and anyone who goes on to own or rent a property will have to deal with diy.

The ones who enjoy it in school might decide to go on and work in a trade, engineering, interior design, energy etc the ones who don’t will still develop useful skills/ knowledge that might come in handy later on. Handy man ( pardon the pun) And as regards every kid being able to change a light bulb have my doubts!

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932684#Comment_118932684

Well that depends if you’re already a property owner….

despite all the doomsayers buying a grandcanal BTL was one of the best decisions I’ve made towards that target. City centre apartments (min C energy rating) are still grotesquely cheap in Dublin given that hotel rooms are all 200+ a night.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118933996#Comment_118933996

Have to agree with this. I did up an old farmhouse and bought a cheap townhouse in a small town. Between the two they cost about 110k. I am getting about 16k in rental income from them.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932684#Comment_118932684

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118933996#Comment_118933996

The system penalises workers without assets over asset owners. The population of the former is growing fast while the latter are dying. This has consequences, people here call it populism

However democracy is populism in practice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934275#Comment_118934275

How many of the former have parents who are the latter though, who will be dying over coming years? Sure, some wealth will go into healthcare costs, but a substantial amount will be passed down. Maybe there isn’t a bank of mum and dad to help a lot of people buy homes, but there will in many cases be a bank of deceased mum and dad to mitigate the issue.

Everyone with any wealth should be maximising tax reliefs right now….my own parents are not wealthy but they max out their annual and once off gift giving allowances.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934344#Comment_118934344

If you want to see how that Pans out for a country, check out Italy.

Of all the new builds last year less than a third made it to the general market so you may have a strong point, however for every one in such a position, how many have adult children in there home with decent jobs who can't get a house and rent is too expensive.

One would expect everyone in that household to vote against the political parties that brought about that situation

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934344#Comment_118934344

Not having a go at you as the below quote is a sign of the dysfunction of the system.

Your parents should not have to do such things, it's a sign that one sector has the entire economy held captive. Its a parasite and should be controlled and treated as such.

Max their pension contributions and put a bit away for healthcare when ts most needed

Everyone with any wealth should be maximising tax reliefs right now….my own parents are not wealthy but they max out their annual and once off gift

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934275#Comment_118934275

There are tons of FTB buying every month. Surveyors and solicitors are super busy. Landlords are net sellers, ie lots of people become home owners currently. Owners will stay the majority forever. And most of the oppositions plans are about taxing income and abolishing property taxes, ie benefitting asset owners even more and discouraging wealth building.

Also property in Ireland is still super cheap despite the current narrative. Builder on brink of bankruptcy tells me house prices have to go up further.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934491#Comment_118934491

Agree 💯. We'd be moving more towards an inheritocracy.

There's something really wrong if only those with rich parents can afford accommodation. I really hope we start moving to the finish model fast, i.e. government not contributing to private schools etc.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118934564#Comment_118934564

Builder on brink of bankruptcy tells me house prices have to go up further.

That comment says more about a single builder and less about the state of the property in market I'd suggest.

Murph85

Buying social housing at 800k a pop. To rent it out at e30 a week is a disgrace. Mix some affordable housing in. But triple the housing could be provided in other areas of dublin. Gifting social housing recipients a lotto win, while the poor paying for it, couldnt dream of purchasing it, is a disgrace and sums up this banana republic. If you cant bring yourself to vote sf next election, spoil the vote...

Fg are left wing. Except when it comes to property, where they are happy to milk the have nots for every cent they have..

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118936054#Comment_118936054

The have not’s aren’t doing too bad (get more money thrown at then than in any other country). The aspirational middle class is getting fleeced. But they want more left wing failures, so no sympathies here.

hope the troika gives this kip another kick in the teeth sometimes this decade.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118937771#Comment_118937771

OP and if the trioka arrive again what will happen. The middle classes will struggle to get mortgages. If houses drop in prices REITs which are now present will snap up cheap houses as will those with cash or who are able to access lending.

When water rates are proposed there will be protests. There will be hand wringing and tears by the left of it's injustice as they protect the welfare setup. Taxes will be hiked and at the end of the day the so called pressed middle will be no better off

combat14

the joys of buying property in ireland - pyrite, mica and fire safety hazards

as usual tens of thousands in hidden unexpected future costs for owners with zero accountability by anyone

many owners stuck for years unable to sell - the article below is an eye opener for anyone even remotely considering purchasing an over priced apartment in this country

throw insane property management fees and inflation for repairs into the mix and you have the perfect storm

https://www.thejournal.ie/swords-fire-defects-5738766-Apr2022/?utm_source=facebook_short

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118937771#Comment_118937771

I agree. When I refer to the have nots, I'm talking about the huge amount of working poor. Aspirational home owners. Certainly not the free luxury housing and outrageous welfare state. Now ironically being paid for, by the working poor. Even the working poor here are hit with a fifty percent marginal rate of tax. Its absolutely insane...

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118937771#Comment_118937771

theres no need for have nots in modern society, as we know how to create sufficient amounts of money in order to provide all with their needs, but we have decided the best thing to do with a significant amount of this money is to use it to inflate asset prices such as property, this in turn creates major issues in our societies as the have nots struggle to meet their needs, in particular their property needs, as asset prices continually move away from their abilities to afford....

once again, most money created actually gets 'thrown' at asset markets, in an attempt to inflate prices, and it largely works, so the have nots virtually get little or none of it!

the middle classes are also getting screwed in all of this, as they to require access to these asset markets, primarily property markets, the largest expense in ones life is meeting their property needs, i.e. rental and purchasing.... modern political and economic ideologies also depict that taxation is moved away from wealth and towards labour and consumption, this is primarily towards the middle classes again..... so you ll actually find, the 'have nots' play little if no role in all of this.......

the troika were introduced to enforce this dynamic, and it worked..... baring in mind, some members of the troika have admitted post crash thats its polices have completed failed, and should not have been implemented in the first place.....

MacronvFrugals

Slug Michael Noonan will go down in history as the lad who facilitated this

https://twitter.com/killianwoods/status/1515624851448467456?s=20&t=GVYeXELdu-eH_VVFYOFJCA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118937955#Comment_118937955

Whatever about houses. You be off your head entirely to buy an apartment.

Far far too much to go wrong.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118936054#Comment_118936054

Shinners aren't the answer though, they want to squeeze working families even more to ramp up social housing and social welfare to the max, fantastic if you are already on HAP and a council housing list and SF know this is their base.

Remember SF wanted the PUP to be circa €500 instead of €350, they will bankrupt this country trying to buy a 2nd election if they get into power.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118938249#Comment_118938249

This was no accident either this was policy to achieve exactly what it has.

Suffocate supply, offload assets from NAMA and repair the bank balance sheets. How come NO one thought of leaving the land banks in the control of the NATIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT Agency to help alleviate such a scenario

That policy and QE, both for the benefit of the financial institutions that caused the last crash, has been overcooked and has left our economy in an incredibly dangerous situation.