Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118941274#Comment_118941274

I think inflation is the greatest concern, inflation at 7% and borrowing rates at 2% gives a real rate of - 5%. That's a rate that throws petrol on the inflation fire.

Duty on petrol and diesel should not have been cut, the money should have been used for park and ride facilities in all the commuter towns. Most petrol and diesel is wasted in traffic jams up and down the country

Cut it for logistics and transport and use the most efficient mode of transport, free up the bottlenecks of traffic jams. Everything moves alot more smoothly. I'm sure it hasn't escaped your radar that there are serious concerns with regard to the supply of diesel. I think that will be of much greater concern to business.

Primetime done a report on the environment and government polices last Thursday. With regard to EV, it found that subsidies for electric vehicles were ineffective to potentially damaging in that the were being availed of in the most part by home owning City dwellers with access to public transport, whereas to maximise the savings they needed to be purchased by people in commuter land. Taxpayers money needs to be targeted to maximise return and prevent actually making the situation worse

Villa05

I would add that releasing oil stocks from national strategic reserves to bring down oil prices is high risk and playing into Put! N hands. There could be a very high price to pay

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118941274#Comment_118941274

Looks lets just agree to disagree, if they are not that far behind why is the Euro 80 pence and 1 dollar and 7 cents then. What the Irish government are doing will have little impact on curbing inflation as you say by reducing the burden of inflation it may only stoke more inflation.

Personally its the raw food price inflation in October that going to sting big time.

Disposable income will have to fall but if interest rates are so low then people will load up on personal debt which is a disaster waiting to unfold.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118941902#Comment_118941902

This winter will be when that price will have to be paid, when food prices and energy prices cause european wide social unrest then we may see action in terms of hit the brakes throw us of the rodeo and then start QE and let's all ride the rodeo again

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118941995#Comment_118941995

The ECB is totally ignoring its mandate - rates should be rocketing up.

It doesn't exist to finance governments paying people to sit at home or sending weapons to Ukraine, it's supposed to be maintaining the purchasing power of our currency.

Baffling that Germany is silent.

MacronvFrugals

Speaking of Michael Noonan recently worth pointing out this lad is also up to his neck in lobbying, Paschal's former adviser Ed Brophy who also famously got paid 52k over the salary pay cap while adviser to Joan Burton.

Pashcal Donohoe's former adviser was lobbyist for Swiss bank on rent-to-buy plan

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/pashcal-donohoes-former-adviser-was-lobbyist-for-swiss-bank-on-rent-to-buy-plan-41560120.html

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118942178#Comment_118942178

If rates rise meaningfully, a devastating recession is inevitable. All of the heads (Lane, Lagarde etc) will have their careers go down in flames as it will show that the accommodative policy of recent years was not needed for as long as it was used. This will show that they largely failed in their careers. They just want to hang on for a bit longer until retirement so they don't get blamed when proper action needs to be taken and the recession happens. Biting the bullet sooner rather later is the best thing to do but price stability is the mandate of the ECB and they are failing at it; a full year of high inflation and fumbling around predictions should have us all terrified that they have lost control of the situation.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118942289#Comment_118942289

This is another reason to show that our property market is not stable as it has been manipulated intentionally to benefit a few stakeholders who want to get rich quick. This is blatant corruption and the actions taken here have directly influenced housing market policies. Why do Irish people tolerate such blatant corruption ?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118942178#Comment_118942178

I suspect the artillery is being rested for fear of spooking French voters

MacronvFrugals

There will be 100% a tribunal for ABP in 20 years time!

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40853522.html

Amadan Dubh

Not forgetting that Paul Hyde is a schoolmate of Simon Coveney and Paul's dad has donated to Coveney's campaigns.

Great little country with FF and FG with their snouts in the trough!

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/04/07/jibs-for-the-boys/

Amadan Dubh

For anyone who wants to feel like they are helping to change our property market, here is an opportunity. As members of the great unwashed, as we are, there is an entitlement for us to attend the next stage of the Central Bank's mortgage measures framework review which is taking place as a conference.

Day 1 - a discussion on the importance of borrower-based measures.

Day 2 - first session of the day will feature influential policymakers from different countries that have implemented similar measures. In the second panel senior international experts will explore how the macroprudential framework for mortgage lending remains fit for purpose in the future, amid broader changes in the financial system and economy.

https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-conference-in-next-step-of-mortgage-measures-framework-review-19-April-2022

It all dovetails with the public consultations https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures/mortgage-measures-framework-review-public-engagement

the results of which were published here https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/financial-system/financial-stability/macroprudential-policy/mortgage-measures/detailed-results-of-online-engagement-survey.pdf?sfvrsn=8

Some of my summary on the public consultations;

• 42% of respondents were private renters, 24% mortgaged home owners, 21% living with family friends and 5% owning homes outright.
• 85% of non-homeowners were planning to buy in the next 12-18 months versus 36% of homeowners. 78% of those planning to buy would be FTBs.
• The main reasons people weren't planning on buying were as we all expect; price, deposit rule and lack of suitable properties.
• Only 52% of people believe that the mortgage measures have been successful in preventing another credit-fuelled boom. But 71% agree that they have an impact on an ongoing basis.
• 61% believe the measures have had an effect beyond their intention, with affordability constraints being stated as the biggest impact.
• Affordability constraints and changing the rules were head and shoulders above any other factor for ensuring a sustainable mortgage market, according to respondents.
• Affordability and supply are by far the biggest factors in driving the housing and mortgage markets forward, which representative groups also cited as their reasons.
• Affordability constraints, deposit rule, feeling disenfranchised and social impacts were all interlinked as being the biggest impact of the mortgage measures, according to the personal insights of the respondents.

zapex123

Hi, i just received mortgage approval from the council. This really is my only opportunity as I've kids and not a high enough income to get a mortgage off a bank. I've been priced way out now to the point where I'll be driving an hour to get to work in the office (not too bad as I work from home half the time). I'm not sure whether I should buy now or wait it out and see does the market get better or will I somehow just get lucky? Do I settle for something that's alright but not exactly my dream home (my dream home is basically a semi detached rather than mid terrace in a good area)?? I'm really worried about the whole thing and extremely stressed. I've a lot of people (my kids) relying on me not to f this up. I can't keep renting because the house I'm in is a tip and I'm sick of paying for it. Any advice is appreciated.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118949559#Comment_118949559

Are you on the housing/affordable purchase list.

Im aware of a family that had a sale fall through as they were unable to get their savings into the country on time (covid related) for the deposit.

They have since been offered a new council house with the rent at a fraction of what the mortgage would have been

zapex123

Oh that's great! I've considered applying for a council house but it's been my dream for 10 years now to own my own home. My youngest is 2 so it would be a long time before I'd be able to apply through the bank. I will buy with the mortgage I was offered by the council, just wonder if I should try and snap something up now or should I wait to see what else comes up? I have about 6 months to 1 year (if I can get an extension). I read somewhere houses are going up 100/day.

Amadan Dubh

This is what "getting out at the top of the market" looks like and this is how the Irish taxpayer will be on the hook once again when the correction happens, having found that our proxies, acting on very thin authority, squandered our precious and short-term corporate tax on high public spending such as the pursuance of this incredibly wasteful and poor value social housing policy.

€442,307 per unit for what is effectively a collection of new dwellings at a roundabout at the edge of Bray.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/lioncor-to-secure-92m-from-sale-of-bray-new-homes-scheme-1.4856615

JimmyVik

I come back here every so often to see if the posters have solved the housing crisis.

I guess its a no again :)

People with actual power to solve it cant solve it either mind you.

I believe now it will never be solved.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118950975#Comment_118950975

Good to hear from you Jimmy I know we dont agree on a lot of things but I do agree with you on this. Its pitiful that this issue cannot get traction.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118950975#Comment_118950975

It would be a mistake to assume people in power want to solve it.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118950862#Comment_118950862

Some hit for Netflix today, I guess consumer spending is slowing up due to inflation and people cutting back on services. Wonder what happens when some of the big cap heavies don't hit their targets and their shares get pulled. Couple all this with investment banks getting hammered in the bond markets as well as their exposure to Russia sanctions and Sri Lanka's imminent default on their bonds, there is most probably rocky waters ahead.

Deutsche Bank could be in big trouble I'd be suspicious when big money hedge fund investors seem to be pulling moneys out of them at a rapid pace, especially when the news about Sri Lanka came through.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118951066#Comment_118951066

I think they are idots, and in an effort to solve it their idiocy only makes it worse, but i dont believe they dont want to solve it.

Imagine the hero someone who could solve it would become. No politician would refuse that crown. Unfortunately they cant solve it and in trying to look like they are doing something just make it worse. In fact a combination of ministers have now madie it so bad it will never recover. The best we can hope for is someone decides that not making it worse would be a good start.

Villa05

Silver bullets for greening and housing held up by regulation

https://www.newstalk.com/news/ireland-should-plant-trees-to-make-e25-billion-and-save-the-planet-1333115

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118951549#Comment_118951549

Sure its easier to just become a lobbyist!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fine-gael-tds-political-journalism-ireland-comment-d23ks5xrb

Another two former Fine Gael TDs have emerged from the revolving door between politics and lobbying. Paudie Coffey, a former Waterford TD and junior minister for housing, has lobbied current housing minister Darragh O’Brien on behalf of social housing developer RediResi Ireland. He has also spoken to council officials in Waterford, Wicklow, Offaly and Dublin for the company.

This with the recent story of Paul Hyde in ABP being up to his neck in conflicts of interest makes idiocy seem unlikely IMO.

combat14

Waterford Whisepers take on current never ending sky rocketing house prices: Estate Agent Is Back Baby! He’s Back!

IT’S been a long, hard road out of hell for Waterford estate agent Cody Lenehan, but he’s finally in a position where he can kick back and ‘let the houses sell themselves’ once again.

“Yeah there’s an offer already in on that property, 20 over asking. No wait, 25 over asking, yeah that’s what I meant,” said Lenehan during one phone call today, as bidding on a 3-bedroom semi on the outskirts of town reached 2007-era levels.

“Listen, you want it or you don’t, I’ve another call coming in so I have to go,” he concluded, even though, and we were here to witness it, he did not have another call coming in.

Having spent the aftermath of the property crash actually working for a living, Lenehan (and others like him) have expressed relief that the housing crisis in Ireland has created an insatiable desire for property at any cost, adding that it’s ‘about time’ that estate agents got to enjoy the spoils of the period.

“Property developers are making an absolute killing out there so it’s only right that agents such as myself get our beaks wet too,” explained Lenehan, while scheduling property viewing times for when suits him best, not the customer.

“And I have to say, it’s just so good to be back. We’re making up for years of losses with the amount of money we’re making each month. And not only that, this time it’s going to last forever! There’s no way those in charge will make the same mistakes twice, so it’s just all boom, baby!”

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118951549#Comment_118951549

Of course they want to solve it. The idea that the government don't want to solve it is the sort of shite that should be consigned to the conspiracy theorist forum. The reality is that it's not easy to solve, it never has been easy to solve, but there's an unwillingness to acknowledge this reality.

All this thread is these days is the same few posters selectively posting news articles, and reminding us all that everything is bad.

Just today we have a news article where 200+ homes are being sold to a local housing body and they will all be used for housing people on the list. This is really bad apparently. If the news article had been the 200+ homes being sold to a fund, this would also have been posted as something really bad. Were the developer to have gifted these homes for free due to some road to Damascus moment you can be absolutely sure that according to the boards property forum this would be terrible as well.

Objectivity is gone.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952842#Comment_118952842

But the policy pursuant to which the purchase of these apartments was made has been renownedly cited as being a poor policy, representing bad value to the state. This policy has resulted in individual buyers being elbowed out, the State effectively inflating property values with its deep pockets and lack of interest in stimulating a dramatic increase in supply and a situation where brand new homes are being rented out below market value (directly subsidized by the Irish tax payer) to those who are struggling largely because of the poorly functioning housing market resulting in affordability issues, which encourages rents to go higher due to the private rental market loss of these apartments and therefore indirectly private renters are now paying more.

Your attitude is a bit of a "sure it's grand" but I think your standards with respect to what is working in our property market is so low that you are almost starting to justify the current situation which is ludicrous and perhaps you are of the view that the housing crisis is not actually an emergency and barely is a crisis?

combat14

The gift of irish property developers that keeps giving - Extension of Mica defects scheme to other counties ‘appears inevitable’, experts warn

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/extension-of-mica-defects-scheme-to-other-counties-appears-inevitable-experts-warn-1.4857678

selassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953829#Comment_118953829

Why does the government not help pay to sort other issues like fire safety in apartment blocks?

Cal4567

Awec, Selassie, it's a bit late to go into so much detail but we are now where we are due to successive poor housing policy decisions by government and civil servants.

Also our relationship with statutory regulation is still in its junior cert stage. Most other jurisdictions would be at Masters Degree level by now.

I could draft an essay on it but most wouldn't want to read the details.