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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,443 ✭✭✭zv2


    I was thinking along the same lines but the Ukrainians are not going to screw up Europe when they need their help so much.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 491 ✭✭Wildlife Actor


    It makes no sense for Zelenskiy to stop the gas flowing west so he's not doing that.

    It makes far more sense to stop the money going East so he's doing that.

    Why would he ever do something as stupid as interfering with the decision making autonomy of his allies on such a massive issue when their support is his country's existential need and where they're giving that support?

    But I think monsieur know that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    What Western Europe (who don't have experience with Russian soldiers' boots on their heads) don't realise is that imperial Russia was NEVER in a state of "relative normality", never, ever.

    The only period where its imperialistic expansionist genocidal tendencies were somewhat diminished was later stages of Gorbachev's tenure and Yeltsin's tenure. This was all due to economic exhaustion from the Cold War and turbulent times. After this brief period, once the economic situation got stabilised/consolidated somewhat, the Russian power complex (elite) again went back to its historical tradition of imperialistic chauvinism. This is a logical continuation of Russian evolution as a polity.

    Edit: I should say that "stabilised" doesn't mean improved, in fact Yeltsin's reform programme was a disaster and the following great recession and consolidation of wealth under oligarchs' control lead to return to imperialistic chauvinist policies and Putinism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 125 ✭✭Nordner


    Dohnjoe, that is one of your more coherent and sensible posts that I have read so far.

    However, I still disagree as regards Clare Daly and others outspoken views on this war in Ukraine.

    I also firmly believe that this war could have been avoided had Ukraine, US and EU acknowledged publicly that there was no possible chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term.

    I also believe that if The West had taken a much firmer line with Russia when they flattened Grozney, invaded Georgia, intervened in Syria, annexed Crimea, backed seperatists in Donbas, shot down that Dutch plane, interfered in Brexit and US elections, used chemical weapons on British soil and killed and endagered British civilians, we would not be where we are today.

    Each lack lustre response to the above has only served to embolden Russia more and more and help Putin consolidate his power domestically.

    The Ukrainians are now paying the price for these failings.

    Here is a link to an interview with a former senior US Vietnam vet and professor at Boston University which you, and hopefully others on here, might find interesting and informative.

    Interesting that the current head of the CIA previously warned against the Eastern expansion of NATO, especially as regards Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,838 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I also firmly believe that this war could have been avoided had Ukraine, US and EU acknowledged publicly that there was no possible chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term.

    Even if true that is all academic now. Zelensky has said he is prepared to give up on NATO membership as part of a broader peace settlement but clearly that's just one small piece of the jigsaw now. The way out of the current nightmare will only emerge when it becomes clear what Putin is prepared to settle for. And that may only be decided on the battlefield....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I also firmly believe that this war could have been avoided had Ukraine, US and EU acknowledged publicly that there was no possible chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term.

    This is nonsense and stems from lack of experience with Russian regime thinking probably muddled by Russian disinformation war waged on all of us for 15 years.

    Any sort of such public statement would make absolutely no difference. Ignoring the fact that NATO can't make such a statement as it would essentially deny its own foundations based on open door policy. As long as the country fulfils the required criteria and decides to apply, NATO is obliged to agree.

    Furthermore, your critical mistake is in believing that appeasement works with chauvinist imperialistic regimes and tinpot dictators. It doesn't - appeasement didn't work with Hitler, Karadžič, Miloševič, Gaddafi, Assad...

    You concede to a Russian dictator something, he takes it as a weakness and confirmation that he can do more, and squeeze more and destroy you.

    Finally, this war has absolutely nothing to with NATO. This always has been only a secondary concern for the Russian dictatorship. It's about a pro-European Ukraine. Russia fears any former, what they think is, an excolony to fall into European sphere the most (generally speaking adopting European values, democracy etc). Because it shows the country can do much better in a democratic system and exposes how toxic dump the Russian authoritarian kleptocratic corrupted system is. If Ukraine and Ukrainians fare better under democratic pro-EU government the news spread into Russia and this threatens the kleptocracy in Russia directly. People will question, revolt, refuse to cooperate etc.

    Edit - in fact this is what Russia did in 2014! Immediately after Ukraine got rid of the Russian puppet Yanukovich and set a clear strong course for democratic Ukraine in the EU, Russia started an insurgency and low scale invasion into Donbas using unmarked soldiers (against Geneva convention by the way).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,972 ✭✭✭dzer2


    Sounds like a saying my grandfather had. Don't bite the hand that feeds you. He'd be unlikely to get much help from Germany France or western Europe if he turns off their gas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Putin won't settle for anything. Either he wins or he's removed. Total War to the end it is, just like Hitler in 1944, there's no way back. He won't concede, ever. He'd be done internally. The whole purpose of this show is to consolidate even more power, a higher level of dictatorship if you wish. Total true fascism. He can't be seen as losing, that would be a disaster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,838 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    But what does Putin see as 'winning' in the current circumstances? Total War to the end of what? I still think a point will come where he cuts his losses and calls of the dogs in Ukraine. Perhaps when he's seized a sufficiently meaty chunk of the Donbas and the south coast of Ukraine.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Correct, it would be a spectacularly stupid own goal. Zelensky and his administration are diplomatically very apt, they are totally winning it diplomatically and so far haven't made any serious mistake. Turning off gas would erase all the diplomatic gains they have accumulated to date. It woud be idiotic to do so. It would even damage their reputation and slim chances of EU membership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I also firmly believe that this war could have been avoided had Ukraine, US and EU acknowledged publicly that there was no possible chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term.


    How the hell can you seriously believe the above if you also believe the below?


    I also believe that if The West had taken a much firmer line with Russia when they flattened Grozney, invaded Georgia, intervened in Syria, annexed Crimea, backed seperatists in Donbas, shot down that Dutch plane, interfered in Brexit and US elections, used chemical weapons on British soil and killed and endagered British civilians, we would not be where we are today.


    So basically you think that the West has simultaneously been too aggressive and too passive when it comes to its dealings with Russia?

    You also seem to believe that Russia is an aggressive and bad faith actor but somehow wouldn't have found an entirely different pretext under which to attack Ukraine?

    These beliefs are not consistent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 665 ✭✭✭goldenmick


    @Loafing Oaf - But what does Putin see as 'winning' in the current circumstances? Total War to the end of what? I still think a point will come where he cuts his losses and calls of the dogs in Ukraine. Perhaps when he's seized a sufficiently meaty chunk of the Donbas and the south coast of Ukraine.


    The question is, what is a sufficiently meaty chunk?

    Unfortunately it's the butcher who decides the size of the steak.


    butcher.jpg


    Post edited by goldenmick on


  • Posts: 8,385 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You let Russia have a "meaty" win and it's all but rewarding this behaviour.

    China will see Taiwan as on the table, Russia will steamroll other countries



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    NATO being the issue is an age-old pretext Putin uses to validate his regional dominance aims, likewise Hitler used the same thing, to claim he was being "encircled" by defensive alliances.

    Clare Daly is yet another useful idiot and national embarrassment, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see her invited to the Alex Jones show, and of course RT. She's already been praised on Russian TV (because she parrots and validates their propaganda)

    "The West should have", countries should have done many things in response to Putin's Russia. There's plenty of criticism to hand around, but we don't see these scapegoat excuses dragged out for the Iraq war or similar by the Clare Daly's types, interesting how their apologism only flows in one direction, so I'm not buying any of these convenient hindsight excuses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    "Encroachment by NATO" is a good old Russian evergreen, depoloyed since the Tzarism. And parotted by various armchair socialists in the US and various pro-Russian puppets or useful idiots (Le Pen, Orban etc.). Back then during Tzarist imperial Russia it could have had some merit, because the Ottomans were a regional competing empire pressing from the South, Austria/Prussia (and briefly Sweden) regional empires pushing from the West and the British Empire controlled pretty much everything between the Ottomans and China. But still the Russian landmass was so massive that nobody could have single handedly controlled it or threaten it as a whole.

    But since 1918 this has absolutely no merit at all and is an artificial boogeyman used for propaganda purposes. NATO countries border Russia on a small fraction of the total border length. It has absolutely no merit or grounding in reality whatsoever and when you hear someone using this argument, you know they are either deluded or naive and that the wind is blowing from the Kremlin. This is idea is directly and indirectly implanted by the Kremlin.

    Apropos, why would "the West" have to do anything at all with regards to Russia in the first place? Why not Russia doing something first and foremost? This notion is always putting the onus on "the West". Again, this is another typical Russian propaganda evergreen - playing the victim, poor Russia is being mistreated by the mean "West".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,984 ✭✭✭jmreire


    If NATO never existed, Putin would have found another excuse, NATO is just a fig leaf to cover Putins expansionist intentions. See how the narrative is changing,,"De-Nazification" is now the most quoted reason. Last thing he wanted ( and went to war over to prevent it happening) was the existence of a successful Ukraine on his border with Russians looking on, and wondering why they cannot have a similar lifestyle. And that was an existential to Putin and his Oligarchs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,838 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    The thing is what Putin is on the verge of doing in the Donbas kind of gives him the win whatever happens. Drive out most of the civilians, smash most of the infrastructure. If the day eventually comes Putin he does want to sue for peace, Zelensky may well decide that giving him a few more square miles of a WW1-style wasteland will be the price that has to be paid...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 125 ✭✭Nordner


    Good man, you obviously know far more than the head of the CIA and that Boston college professor. Or did you even bother to look at the interview?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 125 ✭✭Nordner


    Another fella who knows more than the CIA Director and Boston professor. Or did you not bother to look at the clip either?



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  • Posts: 8,385 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mariupol is one place I can not see them concede. Not after what Russia has done there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Mariupol may be flattened but it has huge strategic importance due to its port. If Russia can control Mariupol then they would currently control the entire coastline of the Sea of Azov. The last I heard was that they have not targeted the port and it's still in working order. For Ukraine losing Mariupol would mean losing their second largest port (after Odesa). Controlling Mariupol is critical for Russia as well, in creating the "land bridge" from Russian to Crimea (currently Crimea is only linked to Russia via a long sea bridge that was hastily constructed since 2014.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It appears that Boris Johnson has travelled to Kyiv (the day after Ursula von der Leyen).

    This is one of the advantages to Ukraine of Russia having given up on taking Kyiv.



    I wonder if Joe Biden will chance a visit as well in the near future.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,361 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I assume a few well aimed missiles could demolish that sea bridge.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 125 ✭✭Nordner


    They are entirely consistent.

    If they had dealt with Putin more firmly 15 years ago, we would not be where we are today vis a vis Ukraine.

    Obviously financial and energy interests trumped ethics when it came to Chechnya, Georgia etc, etc...Proper sanctions at the time may have dissuaded the type of behaviour we are seeing now in Ukraine.

    In all likelihood a diplomatic solution could have been reached with Neutrality for Ukraine but their security and independence guaranteed in order to ensure Russia did not think about invading again.

    But no, now Russia is the big, bad bear, whose economy and people must be ostracized by all civilised nations....Their military has been shown up to be a shambles with ill disciplined conscripts and outdated and barbaric tactics...

    USA come to Europe's rescue with LNG shipments, as Nord Stream 2 is shelved and Russia is bled dry in Ukraine.

    By the way, do you think the billions in military aid going to Ukraine is for free? The weapons industry is making a fortune and every penny will have to be paid back by Ukraine.

    The number of Western geopolitical goals being achieved as a result of the war in Ukraine is striking. One might almost think the whole thing was planned....

    But then that would just be tin hat conspiracy theory stuff as far as you are concerned.

    Did you listen to the interview from DemocracyNow?

    If so, you might be kind enough to comment?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The VAST majority of weapons and equipment being sent to the Ukraine is going as aid and will not be required to be paid back.

    The rest of your post as usual is baby murderer apologist, conspiracy laden nonsense hidden behind captain hindsight level logic so doesn't bear addressing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,509 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Ask them what situation the Baltic States, Poland etc would be right now if NATO hadn't expanded.

    Ask them what that would mean for the stability of the EU and central European NATO members.

    Ask them what that would have meant for Russian strength and ability to project force if they could once again pillage its former vassal states.

    Ask them if they foresaw a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine costing Russia 20% of their forces and having to retreat from Kiev?

    Ask them for a guarantee Russia wouldn't have invaded or destabilised Ukraine if there had been no NATO engagement with Ukraine.

    They are the experts right?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,062 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    One might think the whole thing a set up- and one might be right - 2 sides have been planning on this for years - Russia and Ukraine- and Russia basically held all the cards - the United States main strenght here is they've nothing to lose ... And the upside is If Russia was stupid enough to invade then they've a lot to gain

    Europe sleep walked in , no plan - no energy security -

    We keep hearing how much of a strategic player Putin is - well it didn't work here ,even if Russia win , they've seriously weakened themselves and the perception of their military ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    probably asked Zelensky did he want to go to a party😙



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