The Coming World War

Thats laughable.

The Russian military will grind down ukraine. Putin is going nowhere

Would it be an exaggeration to claim none at all? I don't think so. This is not like the Balkan conflict. There has been no hostility between Russia and Ukraine before Putin. The invasion makes no sense from a military point of view. Putin is a madman who wants to engage in war with the western world.

I think at this moment in time it'd be foolish to be certain of any outcome.

You were speculating about Putin nuking the NATO meeting in Brussels in another thread.

No, they shouldn't be doing anything like that. That would create unnecessary panic for what is a very unlikely situation. Even in the unlikely scenario of a nuclear war we're all done for anyway so it's pointless even worrying about it.

We shall see. Russians will start moving again soon

The fact that Ukraine is getting thousands of anti tank weapons and anti aircraft systems will help tip the balance a bit

The longer it goes on is absolutely not good for Russia.

It's not a question of gaining a foothold, its a question of more of their forces being destroyed, more conscripts being killed/captured/starved or deserting, more collapsing of command & control and logistics.

Things are so bad for them now overall, that I doubt they have the strength to withdraw, let alone make progress.

Look at these figures. Yes, they are from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but NATO are backing them.

It's a living disaster for Russia, the problem for the World is whether somebody topples Putin and stops the madness, or they resort to WMDs.

And that is without even considering the daily precipitous descent by the billions into the red of the Russian economy. They will default on their sovereign debt any day. Their demand to be paid in roubles for international oil and gas exports, has been met with a sharp 'f**k you' and their domestic industries are laying off in the hundreds of thousands, for lack of materials and components.

China has seen the damage that can be done by the withdrawal of western capital and technology and they will be in no mood to share the pain.

So that leaves Vladimir, broke, friendless, humiliated. I would say paranoid, but it's all real.

I think the longer it goes on and the longer he fails at his objectives the more likely a coup against him. Whether that is through the Russian Parliament, the Army or by powerful individuals within the state is the question.

A general uprising the s unlikely at present. At some stage high up individuals may decide enough is enough. His problem is that may mean a bullet in the head.

The offset of that is that huge arms manufactureres (heres looking at you UK) will have a vested interest in this continuing. War is big business. But yes its a necessary evil to stop Russia in its tracks

Thats it - only certain people benefit

Indeed which is why I was careful to write "can be".

Very familiar with the US transformation into a juggernaut, however worth mentioning that was WW2. Wars and conflicts have different scales and impacts. Arms companies benefit before, during and after conflicts, but it's important not to attribute them as the cause or driver of the conflict (via appeal to motive) when it's not the case.

Again, not so.

Yes, there were areas like the Low Countries and French / German border as well as the Eastern Front where the conflict was constant and industrial capacity destroyed, but in Britain they were still churning out 30,000 planes and 300,000 vehicles per year as well as dozens of naval ships and millions of tons of artillery and munitions, even in the teeth of Nazi bombing campaigns of places like Coventry and Glasgow.

The Soviets too produced armaments in the millions of tonnes all while at war, while the Nazis were no slouches themselves until the tide turned in the war and their capacity to refine raw materials and gather fuel was stopped in places like the Ruhr Valley.

That was more to do with still thinking they could maintain an empire.

The Ukraine e will be flooded with western help after this the Marshall plan MK11

Looks like Russia is looking for a way to withdraw. They are scaling back there demands.

Look like tour opening assessment was completely wrong. The Russian army could not go through the gap of Dunloe not to mind the Suwalki gap.

The West will be awake after this. Putin has done the exact opposite of what he planned. He unified the Western countries. Sleepy Uncle Joe was more than a match for him. His leadership was crucial

There may well be three sphere's of Interest. The US will remain the main one. A reawakened Germany with France and the former Eastern block countries will lead the EU to become more if a military power.

China will continue to develop but now realises it is still decades behind the West and the US in a military sense. Ukraine proved it not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters.

NATO never engaged the Russian but the military hardware that they supplied Ukraine is way superior to anything that Russia or China can being to the table.

Putrid and the upper echelons of the Russian elite will have to crawl back into the home they came from.

Biden will ranked in the second layer of great US presidents like Kennedy and Reagan

ya i'm a bit paranoid kinda like Rodney in that famous episode of OFAH where he builds his fallout shelter 😙

but i've got a feeling in my gut that this isn't going to end well and we should be preparing for the worst scenario