Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Id agree with the idea that flexibility exists RE article 42 - which Ireland (perhaps sadly) did water down. I was talking to a friend about this, and we discussed gradations between where we are now, and an 'EU Army'. There could certainly be enhanced co-operation between the various EU Defense forces, perhaps eventually under the auspices of the EU. The EU has often been peripherally involved, or at least 'rubber stamping' these type of thing. Probably not speculative to suggest it may formalize certain agreements on defense.

The above for example - i could see that being formally moved into a North European Union type bespoke treaty - its been discussed openly a few times but not formally - yet

The problem is always that there are countries (including but not limited to Ireland) where the idea of enhanced EU Military co-operation, is frowned on. It has become a kind of 'boogie man' - 'Dont Vote for Further EU integration lest sons and daughters be conscripted' - always a hollow cry IMHO

I suspect the new reality we may be facing, will temper the above resistance. We wont just 'jump to an EU army' though - it will probably be a slow drift toward formalizing security arrangements for the EU as a whole. It is clear that Russia considers the EU to be Adversarial to its position. Just goes back to the security dilemma.

• Russia is hostile to EU
• Eu views hostility with alarm. Increases security co-operation and formalization of arrangements
• Russia Views these moves as further examples of EU hostility - reacts to this militarily by strengthening its forces (and its satellites)
• Which leads to yet further increases within the EU
• and so on

I am kinda agnostic myself but certainly lean toward Ireland becoming less antagonistic to the above. The whole 'Irish Neutrality' thing is old. And never really made sense to me outside of WW2 -

ALL IMHO of course - been years since i looked at the EU in college so

If anyone thought that the were very silly.

He invaded the Ukraine 8 years ago.

He ramped it up 4 weeks ago.

Very interesting post :- Dmitry Olegovich Rogozin (Russian: Дми́трий Оле́гович Рого́зин; born 21 December 1963) is a Russian politician who is Director General of Roscosmos since 2018. Previously he was Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in charge of the defense industry from 2011 to 2018. Prior to that, he was Russia's ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.[1]

So he was in charge of military spending during the massive upgrading of Russias army post .....which appears to have had a lot of "Cash Diversion", which is now coming to light...I wonder if he is on Putins interview / blame list?

No, it's not harsh at all.

Russia annexed Crimea and then has been waging a war in Eastern Ukraine for 8 years. Russia (and the East Ukrainian puppet republics) violated ceasefire agreements more than million times between 2016 and 2018! All the violations are documented and catalogued by an independent international organisation.

While this was going on the EU did very little. The sanctions were weak and when they actually started working, instead of increasing them loopholes were exploited. And everything went to back to business as usual. Annexation of other country's territory in Europe is simply unacceptable in current European and global international community. So is sending one's unmarked soldiers to a neighbouring country to wage insurgency. So the EU reaction was poor, weak and even cynical.

I don't agree with the notion that the EU armies are weak. France and Italy have a very strong military, Spain and Germany have very decent ones. Where there is a will... The issue was, and to some extent still is, the lack of will. Not lack of means.

The book, obviously.

Scary stuff.

Sure, there has to be a certain amount of pragmatism and we do not, and will probably never, live in anything remotely resembling a Utopia...

That being said, we can definitely do better.

For instance, we cannot have a situation whereby we in The West, are supporting Saudi Arabia via weapons and logistics to indiscriminately bomb civilians in Yemen and, on the other hand, condemn Russia for doing the same thing in Ukraine. It is blatantly hypocritical. End of story.

Western greed, or at least the greed of our mega corporations, have led directly to the rise of China. Cheap labour in exchange for cheap consumables and extraordinary profits for western companies operating there. However, as a result we have, more or less, given away whole swathes of intellectual copyright. As seen with Huawei and other communications and computer technologies now made by Chinese companies which directly compete with Western companies whose ideas they unashamedly ripped off in the first place.

One could argue Covid-19 is perhaps the worst example of the results of this kind of cynical and cheap outsourcing in human history. I know that is still a controversial opinion but I believe all the evidence points to the Lab Leak hypothesis...in any case, I digress...

Basically, what I am saying is that, while there will always be a necessity for realpolitik, we, in The West, need to try and keep our side of the street a tad cleaner before we start hurling insults and accusations at our neighbours across the road.

People in glass houses and all that.

The Ukraine crisis could have been resolved diplomatically a long time ago and it would have spared all the bloodshed, misery and risk of nuclear war facing us now.

It's not black and white. It's pure realism based on historical 150 years' experience with the terrible Russian regimes (Tzarism, Leninism, Stalinism, post-Stalinism, Putinism).

Also, they beat Stalin in the Winter War, which was a huge victory, even though it was a draw in fact and they had to cede 25% of territory to Russia for that. Still worth your independence and freedom. Along with Estonians and the Polish, they have the most realistic, the most accurate and clearest idea what's going on in/with Russia (medium-long term parallels). They know what they're really dealing with. I don't think the EU in general have a clue.

Comparing this with the Irish-English antagonism is very inaccurate.

There are doubtless thousands more horror tales much worse than this account. But for all those on this thread who keep pushing the rhetoric that we should not intervene, just stop and think for just a moment - instead of believing at least you and your family would be safe if we sit back. You ignore it at your peril... it could be a child of yours that suffers in the future in this way if we let butchers terrorise the world unchallenged.

Well i think we are preaching from the same prayer book, just perhaps different pages

First of all - everything you said about Orban - is true. Of course, he is a populist quasi nationalistic pseudo-conservative ***T. No question, i agree completely, and not only that. He is playing from the same rule book as Putin. (whip up conservative christian groups against us 'homosexual loving wokies' of the Liberal west, and solidify his position with the aid of 'like minded' media) -

BUT - THIS

The 1956 events are pretty much irrelevant in Hungary now - Genuinely, not having a go at you - i admire your posts, and agree with you broadly on everything - EXCEPT this statement - This is absolutely untrue - Orban WISHES it were true - and he may attempt to foster a 'Not the same as 56 narrative - but to do so would bring about his end imho - 1956 is Hungary's Easter Rising -

• Its a national holiday - constitutionally
• it is commemorated yearly in Hungary and by the Hungarian Diaspora
• When the iron curtain began to crumble, one of Hungary's first acts as a free country, was to dig up the leadership of the failed revolution - and bury them with full state and military honors
• and Hungarians will ALWAYS remember what happened - they were stepped on violently - by Moscow

Again i want to be clear i agree with you wholeheartedly on all else - i would speculate that Orban is treading carefully RE how he handles this situation, given the players involved - This conflict is a danger to him, as although definitively he is a bully (little Putin, perhaps apt) - he needs to be careful

I think i would agree with you that the turn around by he, and other Right wingers in Europe, is half hearted for sure - and not to be trusted. They will undoubtedly begin to shift positions, and find 'other means' to unite the right, in their respective countries - I expect they will double down on their attacking of liberal values RE LGBT issues, the muting of the church, secularization etc etc etc - All this is to be expected - But given the atmosphere, they will be very hesitant to point to Russia in any favorable way. Especially in Eastern Europe. Eastern Europeans Rightwingers may not know what they want RE nationalism, the church, and LGBT issues - but they know what they DONT WANT - any Russian control or influence. They had it once - never again

You might have a point RE sanctions impacting the west - and right wingers beginning to question the domestic consequences RE

• Fuel Prices surge
• Something needs to change
• Their first considerations are the lives/livelihoods of 'their people'
• But that will be decidedly anti Putin from now on i feel

Id say we will see the shift. I dont expect morally repugnant creatures like Orban and Le Pen will vanish (sadly) - but they will change - and once again i welcome the chat - iv been following it myself so - happy to debate and discuss with you :~)

Couldn't say better myself! Appreciate your deep analysis 😎

In other news, and this is rather significant, the Dutch have moved Patriot system to Eastern Slovakia, and will man it along with German colleagues.

This is significant for multiple reasons - the Dutch are not that mean after all😁, German troops stationed in a foreign former Warsaw pact country is a very new and big thing for the Germans.

Getting Patriot in was the prerequisite for the Slovak government suggestion of giving its S-300 anti air system to Ukraine. They said they would pass it on if a replacement was provided. It has been provided so we will see how it will develop.

This is way more important than some hypothetical no fly zone. These are real actions on the ground, where it matters.

The way my Finnish friends see it, their land was illegally taken, and as far as they are concerned,,it's still their land. So if you are an ethnic Russian, your opinion does not really matter. Its not your choice to make. Feel free to return to the motherland, if thats what you wish, or stay under Finnish Government. Now if you were an ethnic Russian living under the circumstances where Finland took back control of what is Finnish Land, what would your choice be?? I'm pretty sure that the Finnish land registry have records showing who owned which parcel of land,,,Farms. etc. And this land would revert back to its rightful Finnish owners. Would you go back to Russia, or integrate into Finnish society? My guess is that you would stay in Finland. As for a break up of the RF, I don't know for sure either way....but I would not rule it out either. Sanctions bite, inflation goes crazy, Russians learn the truth about the war, Putin is deposed. a defeated Russian army returns home. Reparations kick in. maybe a bit like Germany after the end of WW1.? Fantasy land? Maybe. What ever happens, the world as we knew it has gone.

Yemen is kinda a proxy between Iran and Suadi?

Ominous - The Russians might level the city later tonight/early tomorrow