Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Genuinely alot of effort put in. But it falls at the first conclusion. NATO being the meat and bones. It's not, it never was. NATO is both a handy excuse but also the element that would have prevented this occuring in the first place.

The mean and bones is and has always been EU membership. The gaze of Russian citizens to am external better quality of life and a future in their grasp. Seem through the eyes of direct relatives who interchange across the ukrian Russia border. The biggest threat to power.

So I don't think the analysis works based on the real issue for Putin .

This is the video?

Think I can help them with that:

'Wed 16 March: In shocking news, 28 of Poland's Mig-29 fighter aircraft were stolen in the night by unknown bandits. Several, actually all, the guards at the airfield were reportedly being entertained by some Ukrainian ladies from Odessa at the time, and are facing severe disciplinary action. Unfortunately, and contrary to standing orders, the planes were all fully armed and fully fuelled and had the keys carelessly left in the ignition. Investigations are underway and a government spokesperson said that all those found responsible will be severely punished.

Residents reported being awoken at about 2:45 AM by the sounds of the 28 jets taking off. An eyewitness - Mati Harie - reported the jets were headed north. Officials are at a total loss as to who might have had the resources and motive to steal the aircraft and have appealed to the public for any information that might shed light on this serious and mysterious crime. The Polish government has appealed to Interpol for assistance, but apparently the head of the organisation doesn't speak Polish. Officials are trying to find am interpreter who speaks Chinese'

(Ignition/keys - I know)

This is all basically sensible. The finer points might be argued over, but the skeleton of an agreement is there. The real tragedy is that it was achievable with some realism prior to this conflict. All the death and suffering since then have been in vain because of pride/ideology.

What I fear is that Putin - having committed to a course so reckless as war - is not going to be willing to settle for what could have been reasonably achieved without war. For all the belief in total Russian defeat on all fronts, the reality is it is Ukrainian cities that are slowly but surely being encircled and bombarded. The longer this goes on the harder it is to resolve sensibly.

His days may be numbered anyway - its been suggested that he wont remain in power indefinitely after this disaster/crime - but in terms of his successor its possible - anyway - like i said im not a career diplomat - its just a thought experiment really - it represents a face saving way out

With the Russians setting up puppet adminstrations in places like Kherson and supposedly planning for dodgy referendums it seems they won't settle for just Crimea and the Donbass though.

I think you are right. But i also think the international 'soft power' pressure is ramping up. So i would hope that the Ukraine Proper can emerge with the lion share of its territorial integrity remaining intact. That said, yes - territorial change is going to be a part of this -

Unless Putin is removed (I may begin burning wax effigies soon) - i suspect some land will be lost

• Crimea - Highly likely bordering on definitive - They will not give up that which they seized in 2014
• Donbass regions - Very possible - depending on the status in the Kremlin, there may well be some 'referendum' on this

beyond these two - i honestly dont know.

wax effigies on standby

Estonia's parliament calling for NATO to establish a no fly zone is relatively meaningless: they have no direct power to unilaterally impose a NATO fly zone and they know it. It's a symbolic show of unity with Ukraine. The same goes for Poland's comments about "NATO peacekeepers" and so forth.

I mean Poland/Estonia/etc. haven't been particularly shy about their feelings on Russia but they're clearly in the minority of NATO or even EU members right now.

The more interesting comments will come from Biden/NATO tomorrow when the NATO Ministers of Defence meet and before/after Zelensky addresses the US Congress.

Personally I expect very little to change but you never know.

Actually, it was also a little bit of payback to the Russians for their support of the Vietnamese....they supplied surface to air weapons to Pakistan, who in turn forwarded them to the Afghan fighters. And as they say, the rest is history...but let your imagination run wild for a minute or two....where would the world in general, and Russia in particular be today, if the US had not assisted the Afghans in ejecting them? And let the Russians stay in Afghanistan? Interesting conjecture.

It's really odd seeing them in Green again , haven't seen a green US tank since the first Gulf war ,

No not really. The Ukraine would be in the situation analogous to that of Belgium prior to WW1. Armed Neutral, with Neutrality guaranteed by both sides. It would have no NATO troops or weapons. It would be constitutionally bound neutrality. and subject to inspection by both sides via the UN

Again - just my hypothetical

"First of all, there's going to be a Ukraine, an independent Ukraine a lot longer than there's going to be Putin. One way or the other, Ukraine will be there and at some point Putin won't," Sec Blinken tells @wolfblitzer

https://liveuamap.com/

the above is a good point from secretary Blinken, Putin will be gone soon Ukraine, you will live on regardless, make your own destiny

I think you're misreading what is at the core of Russia's objection to Ukraine joining NATO. I don't think it's fundamentally about NATO troops being stationed there but about NATO (in effect the United States) being a guarantor of its security, committed to intervening if its integrity is compromised. And AFAICS your proposal is little different from actual NATO membership on this front.

In effect I'm saying Russia is acting in bad faith here; what they really want going forward is to be able to intervene in Ukraine as they see fit; annex bits of their territory, install puppet governments etc.

Surely America would tell them "You're on your own guys if the Russians strike back at you."

There isn't really anything preventing Poland or Czechia from sending troops if they want to do so. If Russia then decides to attack Poland, Nato would respond. That's why all the troops have been moving in there lately.

Whether any of those attacks will actually happen is another thing.