Krishnan Guru Murthy on Channel 4 tried to go in on the Polish PM, wanting to know why the difference in treatment of Ukrainian refugees and those from Iraq, to which the Polish PM responded that a lot of those Iraqis weren't genuine refugees, but rather economic migrants. There may be plenty of time to compare and contrast later, but I don't think that kind of whatabout is very helpful at this point.
No not really. The Ukraine would be in the situation analogous to that of Belgium prior to WW1. Armed Neutral, with Neutrality guaranteed by both sides. It would have no NATO troops or weapons. It would be constitutionally bound neutrality. and subject to inspection by both sides via the UN
Again - just my hypothetical
I read this Twitter post and gave me a bad feeling. I see a major reaction from Russia if Poland and other states feel the need to go outside Nato. This only going one way if that happens WW3.
the above is a good point from secretary Blinken, Putin will be gone soon Ukraine, you will live on regardless, make your own destiny
I can't imagine the Poles or Czechs going on a solo run like this. They are NATO and EU members and quite used to only taking collective decisions (there was nothing particularly controversial about the three PMs visiting Kyiv today).
I think you're misreading what is at the core of Russia's objection to Ukraine joining NATO. I don't think it's fundamentally about NATO troops being stationed there but about NATO (in effect the United States) being a guarantor of its security, committed to intervening if its integrity is compromised. And AFAICS your proposal is little different from actual NATO membership on this front.
In effect I'm saying Russia is acting in bad faith here; what they really want going forward is to be able to intervene in Ukraine as they see fit; annex bits of their territory, install puppet governments etc.
The soldiers there now are seriously better equipped than the conscripts at the beginning of the Invasion of Ukraine.
Surely America would tell them "You're on your own guys if the Russians strike back at you."
No i do actually get that. But in effect we have to stick it to the Russians along their 'official' lines - Putin/Lavrov has repeatedly said they want a Neutral Ukraine - ok - who guarantees their security?
Put simply - someone else NEEDS to be a guarantor of Ukrainian Neutrality - it could be the UN (unlikely but possible), NATO, or a new organization/Treaty bespoke to this conflict - the bottom line it cannot be Russia - and i think that clear message needs to be stated
Given the caveat that a third party needs to be able to actually DETER aggression against the Ukraine - Russia can be a part of the Guarantee - arguably should be - but it cannot be RUSSIA ALONE - clearly that bridge has been blown
There isn't really anything preventing Poland or Czechia from sending troops if they want to do so. If Russia then decides to attack Poland, Nato would respond. That's why all the troops have been moving in there lately.
Whether any of those attacks will actually happen is another thing.
In that case, Zelenskyy should not be entertaining any commitment not to join NATO. Security guarantees from Russia are not worth the paper they're written on. Right now I'd look at this as a good deal,
- Cede Crimea and internationally observed referendums in the breakaway regions.
- UN monitored ceasefire/Russian withdrawal
- Russia acknowledges right of Ukraine to join NATO and/or EU
- Lifting of sanctions on Russia in return for reparations paid to Ukraine over 10 years.
You have missed the point. It's not about the practicalities of the action, it's about the risk assessment behind it.
The days of the Asylum system being abused will have to end, we now have a real and significant asylum crisis with genuine Refugees.
Murthy loves to showboat.
He can guarantee neutrality if Russia hands back Crimea and the eastern regions. But that's not the Russian agenda.
You would have to question whether Russia could beat Poland, just Poland.
Certainly not without a peaceful Ukraine.
The fallout from the Russian invasion across the world will do more damage than the Russian forces are capable of.
ZZZZZzzzzzzzz........
No, NATO is a self defense organisation. If a member instigates an attack on another country, it's on it's own and NATO is not obliged to come to it's defence.
Huh?
The point is that a risk assessment is completely immaterial when a resolution or statement does not lead to concrete action: in other words they could have either done no risk assessment whatsoever or even failed a risk assessment and still made those statements in order to express solidarity.
I mean if they really thought going into Ukraine would have no negative consequences it begs the question why they haven't gone in themselves; or why has Poland not just handed the MiG-29s directly over to Ukraine etc.
Sure, but which country would Poland or Czechia be attacking, if they sent troops to defend Kyiv, for example?
Russian soldiers murdering a civillian:
Evil shits. I have not a drop of sympathy for the Russians killed in that tank when it went boom, or in any other circumstances in this conflict. Every one of their deaths is to be recognised as just and necessary in preventing them from doing this sort of thing.
Slava Ukraine
I suspect the hard red lines for Ukraine will be keeping their military and "joining" either NATO or the EU or both. As you say Russia clearly cannot be trusted not to enforce its will using military means and Ukraine needs a way to ensure that can't happen again; otherwise all of this is for nought.
As for Crimea I expect they will be willing to cede that away either directly to Russia or as some sort of independent state; this was already the de facto reality on the ground before the invasion anyway.
The Donbass is a different matter entirely and would probably be the most contentious area for both sides. Putin needs some kind of "win" or presumably there's no chance he relents. Equally there are significant numbers of Ukrainian citizens in those regions who want absolutely nothing to do with Russia and I can't see Ukraine abandoning them easily either.
Maybe Ukraine can throw in the dissolution of the Azov regiment and reparations to DPR/LPR which Russia could spin into a win; maybe DPR/LPR and Ukraine gets a UN mission to oversee peace and ensure security along the Russian borders. I guess it all depends on Putin and his hubris.
Ideas can have power; you are saying they don't without material effect. We do not agree with each other. This is a very powerful idea, just as is Kasparov's opinion and Kozyrev's. Before action usually comes the idea of action. I think we are in a phase where action is being considered, and if it eventuates, the risk assessment that it was based on will be one of the most important in human history. What the Estonian parliament voted on, matters a lot.
Seems like Russia might have lost a few more helicopters:
Hopefully these turn up in Ukraine with soldiers with blacked out armbands.... be such a shame if little green men with F-35s and M1A2's happened to just **** up the Russians no one would know where they are from! similar to what happened in crimea.
Well IMO they wouldn't be attacking a country, just it's forces that are carrying out illegal acts in a foreign country. Russia might not see it that way and might retaliate against those countries directly, but other NATO countries are not obliged to aid in their defence, though they could volunteer.
Seconding - Poland or any NATO country can go on a solo run and intervene against Russia. But, then NATO would not need to defend if Russia pushed them back and attacked Poland.
This is why Poland are reluctant to supply their Mig jets directly.
I used to do a lot of online gaming with a Danish guy whose accent was extremely similar.
Russia look to be losing?
The difference between reluctant Russian boots on the ground versus those valiantly defending their own land is huge.
Not even sure how much Russian High command are motivated beyond not being invited to tea by Putin.
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