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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    America is less dominant now than 25 years ago and others are coming up that are capable of challenging that further in time.


    That's not to take from the reality that America is a global behemoth now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,598 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Sanctions work over years though not days. It will need all of Europe to stick with them through next winter and possible impose oil and gas sanctions too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, and even at that , Ukraine was no where near the same level of war preparedness that Russia was....and even so, look at the pasting they are giving Putin.....Sure, he's gaining ground, but the original time scale is gone out the window, and the fightback will start in earnest. Taking a City and holding it are two different things. Putin knows full well what will happen if he gives NATO a reason to enter the war.....I don't think in its entire history has NAYO ever had so much support for attacking an enemy. Putin has pissed off most of the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 113 ✭✭Botrys


    Sorry to sound pessimistic. but unfortunately i don't see a clean way out of this mess.

    The russians will not allow themselves to lose in Ukraine, even if they had to bring the whole country to the ground, and they made it perfectly clear that they're willing to go nuclear if they had to.

    Eventually the Russians are going to win, they are not playing around, but we are.

    knowing the American modus operandi, they'll keep fighting the russians to the last Ukrainian, deal as much blows as they can to the russians then pull out when they think they've done the maximum they can. It's only a question of when, just take a look at Afghanistan.

    Americans got absolutely no interest in Ukraine but to poke the russians. they made it clear that they have no intention to send a single soldier to fight for the Ukrainians, nor the EU is willing to go into a nuclear adventure.

    Perhaps the Mig-29 shipment the EU/Nato promised to the ukrainians was met with a direct threat from the russians escalating to nuclear strikes on Ukraine thus got abandoned.

    what matters to me personally is Europe, europe will pay a hefty price for this war in its economy first and foremost, in the end the americans will pull out and the russians will calm down, the europeans though will be left with refugees, economic difficulties and an angry bear on the eastern front.

    Ukrainians will be left without a country.

    If i was a european in charge, i'd push a policy for the future set a roadmap that results in the following, kick the americans out of europe, dismantle Nato, increase military spending and invest in own security, intoduce more robust mutual defense clauses in the EU agreement, no point in relying on the americans any longer if all they care about is geopolitical meddling rather than security. have talks with the russians and negotiate a solution for the Ukrainians that is a win win for everyone, while most importantly maintaining peace with the russians. Europe should have its own agenda and work towards it - no outsiders.

    we had a chance to avoid all this mess altogether, but proper leadership is absent nowadays, short sight is pretty much the norm.

    Right now european leaders are driven by apparent emotions, perhaps to please the masses since some of them got elections coming up and they need to secure their seats.

    I'm sorry but emotions and right/wrong do not mix up well with geopolitics, without going down to the delusion that we can uproot a tyrant on top of a superpower, in the end Europe is going to be forced to deal with Putin and come to terms or a nuclear World War 3 and lose everything that was built since the end of the second world war. choose one.

    ---

    another huge mistake that we're doing is alienating the russian people, banning them from sports, Paralympics for real like we're punishing them

    thus providing more munition for the tyrant to justify his war internally and build up hate in his population that might explode much more dramatically on the long run.

    we're at a turning point in history and going forward we need to proceed with absolute caution if life really matters to us.

    just my final 2 cents on this matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228



    No doubt there will be someone waiting to take it on post war? Assuming that will be an option?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,312 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    For an economy that is about a third smaller than Italy's, they have hundreds of billions of dollars of assets that have just been frozen, not a paltry amount (France estimates around 1 trillion blocked now, including half the reserve "war-chest"). Internationally Russian assets and the rouble are toxic now, it's value at a record low, their key banks share values have collapsed almost entirely, international credit is frozen to them, most major corporations have stopped doing business with them, the main container shipping groups have cut them off, main airliners have cut them off, they have been forced to keep their stock market closed for a week (it was down 40% last week, an eye-watering amount, I think it's a world record), modern manufacturing is complex requiring international supplies - suppliers are being drastically cut by the day. We'll probably see them go into default on their interest payments, which will make them toxic even to allies in Asia. Even the Kremlin, pathological liars and propagandists, have been forced to admit their economy is taking a battering from this. Keep in mind we're just 9 days in. They'll survive and get by, but yes, over the months their economy is only going to get worse.

    Putin wants a Soviet empire, so he'll get a Soviet style economy. Maybe the increasingly poor Russian populace will see Putin in his glittering yacht and one billion holiday home and decide it's time for another Russian revolution..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,442 ✭✭✭omega man


    And while enjoying the trappings of a somewhat capitalist society albeit an authoritarian leader. Their economic obliteration may change that blind eye to Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Somehow I don't think that will be your last 2 cents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,843 ✭✭✭weisses


    It is early days yet but I begin to think this war could have a very positive effect on Europe as a whole. We all knew we needed to be way less dependant on russian gas, we all knew Putin was not to be trusted, we know there needs to be a transition from fossil to renewable fuel. Europe was devided in many of these goals and now good oal Vlad got us all united to achieve those goals in record time.

    Its a fukcing shame that these changes always seems to come with the sacrifice of human lives. (A complete waste) Which we all are somewhat accountable for



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Dismantle Nato?

    That's shorthand for a Russian dominated central and eastern Europe, the EU being picked apart and the end of the post WW2 order - to be replaced with a dispensation of an autocratic nuclear power running wild on the continent.

    There's appeasement and then there's Europe self-immolating. Your take is the latter.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Fox news currently reporting "Russian troops aiming to 'mine' nuclear plant to 'blackmail the whole of Europe:' Zaporizhzhia employees", and it wouldn't surprise me





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    But the principles of MAD were clearly understood by all, ( and adhered to) and now we have a crazy barsteward who may just might use them. Attacking a big Nuclear Power plant is proof enough of how far he is prepared to go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,843 ✭✭✭weisses


    BS .... It will make life impossible on their beloved Crimea



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭Black Noel




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,214 ✭✭✭wylo


    I dont agree, Putin knows he cant go into a NATO country, well, what I mean is, the reason the West would allow Ukraine to be overrun by Putin is the same reason Putin wont enter NATO. I think this narrative of him having lost the plot entirely is wrong. In hindsight he has been clearly planning this for a very long time.

    Its the unwritten rules (or perhaps written???) of what you're allowed or not allowed do. It seems that supplying arms and providing intelligence doesnt break the rules, but direct conflict does. If the West stays out of it I dont believe it'll escalate as it would be basically suicide for Putin to invade because then all bets are off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,843 ✭✭✭weisses


    Anyone excited for the Russian stock exchange to reopen ?


    200w.gif




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭Bigmac1euro


    Well this ruined my day. No offence to yourself posting it.

    im addicted to watching this absolute clusterfuck unfold.

    that cvNt needs to be stopped I hope he **** burns in hell.

    This thread is depressing the life out of me need to stop reading it but can’t.

    watched the power plant unfold on live stream last night. These terrorist need to die quickly.

    My heart goes out to Ukraine, europe and the decent Russian people opposing this.

    My partner is pregnant and all I can think of is how bad my timing was I can’t even enjoy the excitement as I fear the future too much. **** you putin. **** you very much.



  • Posts: 192 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It’s getting hard to know what public opinion in Russia is because there’ll be nobody with access to it in a few days by the looks of things and all we’ll be hearing is quotes from a modern version of Pravda.

    Russia isn’t all that wealthy. The average income is only about €450 a month, and there’s a bubble of wealth in the cities people visit most - Moscow and St Petersburg. That’s giving a very false impression of the reality of life for most Russians, which is petty hard and basic and not about the latest Gucci handbag or iPhone.

    Putin seems to have morphed into more than just a political figure. He’s been described as having become an institution in his own right. There’s a large part of the population that seems to like the strong leader / good king model. It’s not and never has been a developed democracy and doesn’t appear to have a democratic culture.

    I’m not sure where this is going. Frankly I don’t think anyone is. Reading Putin isn’t easy. He appears to be a complete black box in that regard. There’s never been much evidence or emotion or attachment to anything - just this cold, strange character who never even cracks a smile. I mean look back at recent leaders like Yeltsin and Gorbachev even there really old soviets like Khrushchev and Chernenko were very, very different to this guy.

    What rather than who is at the other side of the chess table. I don’t know what is is but when I see that guy I just see a void. He seems to make no eye contact. He looks at the floor a lot, he never shows any sort of emotion and now he has even gone as extreme as these huge long tables. There’s an air of mystery that I really find very concerning and it’s reminding me of Kim in some ways.

    I thought there was something seriously up when Macron’s security wouldn’t allow him to be swabbed for COVID - it indicated that French intelligence must have had a credible concern for his safety. There’s been something ratcheting up for than just these last few days in Ukraine.

    As for someone suggesting that they’ve a concern about nuclear war further up the thread. It’s hopefully unlikely, but I don’t really think anyone, probably even intelligence agencies, can get a good sense of how unlikely it is.

    The Russians also don’t have much of a history of rebellion, at least not since the 1917-23 revolution. The Soviet Union was rebelled against mostly in Eastern Europe other than Russia. Russia itself sort of fizzled out of soviet mode and into a sort of tolerated oligarchy with many of the institutions just adapting to that and adopting capitalist approaches. They never really embraced any great swing to being a liberal democracy. That’s why I’m really not holding out much hope that some popular uprising against Putin will emerge. I think really our most likely sight of protest in Russia may come from the military deciding that enough is enough and just deposing Putin and delivering no radical change.

    I’m sure the oligarchs will also play a role as they’re the ones feeling the pinch. You could also just find many of them will escape the pressure and exit, with assets - and you can see Putin moved to try to prevent that with capital controls. Assets in Roubles are probably worthless though until the currency eventually recovers, which could be a long way off, but I doubt many keep them in that.

    Money will have flown out already - cryptocurrency, or in many cases the assets were already abroad anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,491 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Firstly its fox news and secondly the plant is about as close to Moscow as it is to Warsaw in Poland, they would be hurting themselves just as much if not more by triggering anything.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,352 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    In the space of a few years Germany went from cruel inhumane dictatorship exterminating millions to a respected important country in western European. Is such a change possible in Russia

    The major difference is Germany was a very well respected important country and culture at the forefront of technology and the arts within Europe before the shortarse Austrian corporal took over. The cruel inhumane dictatorship was a very out of character blip that lasted little more than a decade. Going back to respected important country status was far more a return to form.

    Russia went from a thousand years of autocrats and enslaved peoples, replacing that with different autocrats and enslaved peoples under a different banner and then when that banner fell, there was a brief pause and then back to baseline with Putin and his minions. It was much easier for Germany to go back to 'normal', Russia's 'normal' has been very different and for a very long time. Your hope is doable, but it'll be a harder task IMHO.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    All currency reserves held for the Russian central bank outside of Russia should be used to help Ukraine.


    The bombing of the nuclear plant should have brought missle drops on that group from europe. Waiting and watching happen what you fear most happening is crazy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 113 ✭✭Botrys



    i probably didn't verb it clearly (but i think i did)

    Replace NATO with a purely european led coalation - without any external component.

    a coalition that serves European interests -Only-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    The Czech Foreign Affairs Minister, what do they consider "decisiveness and unity" I wonder, bear in mind Spain's equivalent has said earlier today that NATO is to discuss possible involvement now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,849 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    As long as we continue to buy their oil and gas, I suspect the Russian economy will continue to limp along. Ordinary Russians may enjoy less of the trappings of a modern lifestyle (smart phones, fast fashion, luxury brands etc.) but they won't starve. Any country of Russia's size can sustain it's own population with the basics and Putin's government, for all their crimes and sins, have done a respectable job of ensuring Russia's food security.

    I feel it's less about "turning a blind eye" to Putin's tyranny than it is about ordinary Russians being too scared to stand against him. The few anti-war protests in Russia that we've seen evidence of are waning already and the crackdown on dissent is being ramped up to the extent that there's a strong possibility of martial law being declared. If peaceful protest can get you 15 years imprisonment or conscripted into an army that views it's soldiers as entirely expendable which will use you as canon fodder in the very war you were protesting against what kind of punishment will that regime dole out to anyone involved in a serious attempt to overthrow or kill the dictator? It's unlikely the reprisal would end with the individual, their entire family and wider social circle are likely to end up disappeared.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,242 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,312 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Putin warning neighbours not to put additional restrictions on Russia, he's starting to feel the burn now. Says Russia will fulfil obligations, but we'll see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,798 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 601 ✭✭✭Snails pace


    Screenshot_20220304-115247_Chrome.jpg

    An accurate description of how I feel after catching up on the thread since 11.30 last night 😅



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    We're still left with the same conundrum: a collective security treaty for Western, Central and Eastern European democracies that Putin is openly hostile to, as well as open hostility to the EU. The only difference is that the collective security is significantly diminished without the US involved.

    Putin isn't going to start suddenly playing by a rulebook just because the Americans have packed up and gone home. He will be emboldened and *will* accelerate his revanchism.



This discussion has been closed.
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