Russia - threadbanned users in OP

He has absolutely miscalculate everything and it all comes back to his own self imposed bunker syndrome. During Covid he isolated himself multiple times and reduced and reinforced his inner circles so nobody will tell him no or give bad news which means he was being fed completely wrong info leading up to this about the way Ukrainians would receive russian tropps all the way to the state of the russian military itself. I go back and forth on this but the only way i see this going is Putin eventually being ousted by military with the backing of the oligarchs but it wont happen i dont think until there is visible mass public discontent so when that might happen is a question nobody can answer.

Indeed I think they are letting them through so they can try and get them back to the leasing companies.

I don't think Putin has miscalculated his military capabilities.

His security apparatus have told him what he wants to hear.

It was inevitable, if the only acceptable answers to your questions or demands for 20 years is yes and you surround yourself with an increasing shrinking circle of hard line nutters, you will tend to get gross erroneous information.

To say the mood is awkward in the Kremlin war room at the moment would be a understatement.

Be prepared to hear the news that an advisor or 2 tragically falling out windows.

Yeah, despite being a member, they absolutely won't let the UN in, they'll claim it's a Western conspiracy and as we've seen they will attack UN convoys

They are refusing to open their stock exchange.

The fingers in the ears la la la la la economic plan.

I dont understand the outrage re the nuclear powerplant in the whole context of this war. It was always a vital target for the russians to seize and not destroy this site. It would have made living in crimea a bit complicated if they would have blown up those 6 reactors. I dont believe Ukraine had a large force defending it for the same reason. So all in all its an expected move which Selensky is blowing out of proportion to gain more attention ( all logical by the way)

If Selensky was only 20% as demented as Putin he would have Blown up the whole thing and let the northerly winds do the rest

There's a certain amount of hangover from the communist days where the state dictated every aspect of your life...from the cradle to the grave, 365 days a year. But communism "ended" in 1991, and so should be nothing but a memory now for older Russians, yet it lingers on. Protesting in Russia carry's a cost, and that cost has now increased to a possible 15 year prison sentence ( rushed through the Duma this week) for anyone spreading "fake" information, or making statements about the military. Its on TV about a Babushka who survived Stalingrad, yet who was arrested on the streets because she protested about the War in Ukraine. In just 4 days, 6'000 war protesters were arrested and imprisoned, and that figure is rising. And Putin is appearing on TV, with his lying claims that no civilians are being hurt, and the "Intervention" is just to root out Nazi's and protect ethnic Russian's. So Putin is attacking Russians too, and it will not end until his grip on power slips,,,,and that will only happen when Russians in their hundreds of thousands take to the streets , and take on the police. Revolt in effect. And even if that happens, Putin will pit the military against them.

I'm not so sure about this American waning power narrative, they are no doubt still running the game, as much as any single country has.

They can cause mayhem anywhere globally without commiting a single soldier and economically they can conduct the orchestra still in the right conditions. Of course we are all interdependent now. Globalisation has been great for world peace, the more interdependence we can get, the more the hands of any single country or regime will be tied. These Russia sanctions will be a great test, I hope it works.

Good article from the BBC on how it might end, my money is on the "Long War" scenario at this stage.