Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I really hope it is more than just morale boosting though. They need to inflict a reversal on the Russians somewhere and fast.

All part of the media strategy, truth and disinformation in equal measures. I believe Russia have about 95% of their forces deployed so as good a time as any to be thinking about it.

Theatre of war, it means where the conflict is taking place. Counterattacks are critical, not just from a strategic perspective, but also for morale.

If I were a betting man, this is how I think it will play out.

Russian army will complete their strategic objectives within a week or so - Kyiv, Odessa will be taken and Russia will control the Eastern half of Ukraine more or less.

Russia will announce a ceasefire and state that they have no intention of invading the western half of Ukraine. Guerrilla warfare will continue in the occupied areas. Morale amongst populace will continue to decline as water/food/power impacts are felt. Especially in the large urban areas.

Russia will oust the current government and announce upcoming 'democratic elections'. In the meantime they will install an interim government with some Russian stooge as president. I am hoping Zelensky gets out and becomes a president in exile. Otherwise he will be killed or imprisoned.

Russia will immediately organise referendums/plebiscites in the disputed territories and possibly other Russian dominated regions in the east of Ukraine. These votes will of course be rigged to show 95%+ willingness to become part of Russian federation.

The Russians will restore power, water, comms and bring in food supplies in order to persuade urban citizens that the worst is over.

Russia will agree with the west and Ukraine that they can never join NATO before they agree to withdraw military. They will also insist on rules around gas pipelines, tariffs to guarantee supplies going east-west.

Democratic elections will take place but it will also be rigged in favour of pro Russian members of parliament. Possibly a new constitution to guarantee things like NATO membership, future nuclear weapons and cultural Russian protections (e.g. language).

The North Crimean canal will be re-opened to water from the Dnieper with a guarantee that the flow will be maintained or another invasion will occur.

I have no idea how they will deal with Transnistria.

I could see the Russian military withdrawing with a matter of months but Ukranian cities will be a hellish and oppressive place to live in until that happens. Many will die in the meantime and the big question is how Ukrainians will be able to undo the damage done by Putin.

Putin's propaganda machine will be in overdrive at home to make above look like peacekeeping/liberation/victory etc etc. That said, I think his days are numbered now. He completely misread the response.

Thoughts?

You are thoroughly deluded.

Much of it abandoned. Russians trying to outdo Biden in abandoning military equipment. I've never seen anything like this. Tank after tank, even AD systems worth $20m a piece. Either it's chronic fuel shortages or the young kids Putin has sent in decided to high tail it back home.

And hopefully let him lie in his own sh1t for 12 hours like his idols.

100% AGREED

Everybodys getting tierd

Food. He plans to use food as an economic and socio-political weapon as much as he's been using gas.