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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,068 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Do you think that it's humanitarian aid? Obviously there's alot of supplies needed for something like this but 40 miles is a big convoy,1 mile of it would bring food, medical, ammunition for 100,000 soldiers for a month, there's going to be serious firepower and troops in it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,224 ✭✭✭Talisman


    Your story reminds me of my brother's experience when he worked in Ukraine. They have a similar practice regarding traffic laws. He had to regularly travel between Kiev and a site near the border with Belarus and fell foul of quite a few of them.

    A vehicle must carry a first-aid kit complete with instructions and there is a list of items that it must contain. The instructions need to be in Russian, Ukrainian and the native languages of the occupants of the vehicle. There is also a list of items that it should contain in particular circumstances - if the vehicle is driven by a foreigner then the first aid kit must contain a foil wrapped condom, because foreigners carry STIs. There was also a rule regarding the expiration date on the wrapper. The vehicle must carry a minimum quantity of vodka (0.5L) per occupant and no more than 2L per occupant. There was a minimum proof level of the vodka. The reason given was that it would help keep the individuals warm in the event that the vehicle broke down.

    Every time they got fined he made a note of the reason and as best he could ensured they wouldn't get caught with the same issue. Some of them were impossible to comply with - the tire thread dimension rules changed depending on the weather conditions and the road surface. Given the state of the roads that they traveled there was no guarantee of being in compliance for the entire journey without changing the tires. There was a rule about how quickly a tire change needed to be - because you could freeze to death in the winter, obviously health and safety is a major concern. No matter what the circumstances were there was something in the rule book that was open to interpretation on the part of the police officer.

    The company he worked for gave them a crazy allowance for paying the fines but he got pissed off with the carry on after a few months and refused to pay any more. As a result he spent quite a few nights in jail and his boss had to bail him out. When his boss refused to pay a fine for him he spent a week in jail and they kindly allowed him to have his meals delivered from the hotel. When he was released and returned to the hotel he had to pay a fine for leaving his room unoccupied. Afterwards the company came to a financial understanding with a local mafia boss and after that there were no further traffic stops.

    He loved the city and contemplated settling there but the police corruption in particular put him off. He carried notarized and laminated copies of his passport and visa so that he wouldn't be caught out by their 'papers' scam. Typically a group of police would stop a foreigner on the street and demand to see their identification papers. While the papers were being examined the individual would be engaged in conversation by a second officer and the officer with the papers would disappear. Another officer would then demand to see the papers and failure to produce them resulted in an immediate fine, failure to pay meant a trip to jail. After the fine was paid their papers would be returned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,224 ✭✭✭Talisman


    During the Vietnam war, Kissinger and Nixon came up with a negotiation tactic that was termed the Madman Theory. Kissinger made it known to the Soviet ambassador and North Vietnam representatives that Nixon was out of control and considering a nuclear response to end the war. It was all in an effort to get the Soviets to put pressure on North Vietnam to make concessions in negotiations so that the U.S. could withdraw without losing face. For a two week period in October 1969, the strategic bombers were deployed every day within strike range of their targets, the carrier command was strategically deployed and Soviet merchant ships en route to Vietnam were actively shadowed by naval vessels and submarines. The purpose of the exercise was to suggest that an all out attack was imminent.

    Putin's behavior could be his attempt to replicate the same tactic. The timing of the referendum in Belarus strikes me as something that was coordinated to apply additional pressure.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,562 CMod ✭✭✭✭Fathom


    Cmod Science, Health, and Environment



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    And would you have told the people of Poland that it was better to live under Nazi rule or that in doing so somehow means they or others just might not die? Poland couldn't win against the Nazis, and their government was removed, the rest as we know was history.

    Unfortunately Ukraine like Poland is just one stepping stone for the power hungry land grabbing lunatic (for that is what he has shown himself to be) that is Putin. Where do we decide his march is enough. Are you happy to appease him with just invading Ukraine? Peace in our time?

    The question now is how do we deal with this lunatic without triggering another world war

    Post edited by Mecanudo on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Ha, that's true. In Syria, especially in Aleppo, you had to make sure you kept a few Syrian Pounds in your pocket. The locals call it "feeding the chickens".

    On another note, there was a post a while back where an OP was amazed at the seemingly obsolete machinery uses by the Russians. Its in stark contrast to NATO. This was especially evident to me when moving from Jordan into Syria back in 2012/13. Jordan is very Westernised and I, with a special interest in such things, kept a close eye on gear and equipment. In Jordan, Humvees everywhere, American style uniforms, F-16's doing CAP'S along the river.

    In Syria, from the moment we set foot across the border ( where the feeding the chickens analogy began with having to pay £100 in order to get our passports back), it was like 1980's Russia. Extraordinary. Even the old Air defence systems around the country. One guy in Aleppo reminded me that most Western gear is high-maintenance and digital. Easy to break down. A small stone sitting on a runway would be a disaster for a Western aircraft, not so a Mig-29. It can shut off its forward intakes and take air from the top. Russia likes analog. After an EMP pulse, which side do you think will have the most gear in working condition?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Saw that myself. Most unusual. Where did it land? I'm going to do a replay on FR



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    It was diverted to northern Poland from the Minsk area. It may have been escorted by NATO all the way down to Bratislava. Its due to fly back to Moscow at 2.10pm today. Worth keeping an eye on it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    If the Ukraine still has air assets it can bring to the fight, I'd say the US is scoring the vicinity of the convoy to check what protection it had in order for Ukraine to take it out.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,068 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    🇺🇦 An official, bluechecked account run by the ukrainian government & representing the ukrainian armed forces is claiming that ukrainian pilots will be flying combat missions from the territory of poland. if true, this is pretty much an act of war by an EU country.

    Propaganda, but still worrying.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Thanks for that. One to watch

    Thing is Putin has already undertaken an act of war by invading an independent country.

    Putin in turn has ordered that Russia's nuclear forces be put on high alert because he claims other countries have made 'aggressive statements" and initiated economic sanctions.

    Truely ironic then he sees the response to him declaring effective war on Ukraine and its people, as being 'aggressive" but not his own actions.

    A veritable madman at the helm.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭Notmything


    A 40 mile convoy may sound scary and it is, but the reality is it won't be all combat troops. There ll (normally) be a mix of unit types and some will be supply or whatever, although that doesn't appear to be a strong point of Russian logistics right now. The number to be concerned about is the size of the fighting element.

    Those saying it's an easy target for petrol bombs are missing the picture. Petrol bombs may be easy to deploy in built up areas not so much in the open where you need to get up close and personal with the target. You would have to assume the Russians are slowly learning the Ukrainian tactics.

    Same with the idea the Ukrainian air force can rock up and drop sh1t on it. Unless they have local air superiority then this is a big ask. The convoy should have organic air defence elements and it's a basic tenet that top cover be provided.

    Could easily have been a decision to husband air assets and deal with the ground forces once they are in a built up area where the defenders have the advantage.

    In some ways this is how the Iraqi army tried to stop the American forces in 03 and it worked to a point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,513 ✭✭✭RGARDINR




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 291 ✭✭Perseverance The Second


    Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵

    Russia has moved around 75% of its forces it had previously deployed along the U. borders into 🇺🇦 (per US DoD). Appears that only a fraction of these have been engaged in combat yet.🇷🇺 forces are massing for assault on Kyiv.

    🇷🇺 forces are in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting to 🇺🇦 attacks. While 🇷🇺 are still committing tactical blunders, there are signs emerging that 🇷🇺 have abandoned their "mad dashes" to occupy key territory without support and coordinate better.

    Expect to see more 🇷🇺combined arms maneuver/combat in coming days; heavier reliance on ground-based fires/more use of airpower. As others have pointed out, we will likely see BTGs fighting as whole units. Alas, this means we are entering a much deadlier phase of the conflict.



  • Posts: 714 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This madman theory is probably the optimal strategy for a country trying to remain relevant, a dictator trying to stay in power, an evil force invading another country. Those close to Putin say he cares about his country so let’s hope he cares enough not to use nuclear weapons, he knows full well it would mean wiping Russia off the map. Mutually assured destruction.

    I read recently about how for years Putin worked hard on his image, trying to make out he was just an ordinary person like everyone else, a man of the people. Everything seen recently of him has been living in luxury in opulent palaces talking down to everyone. This can’t be going well for him, internally.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Put it this way - Russia have already shown a willingness to go to war over the paranoid pretext of something a country might do, i.e. to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. On that form, they wouldn't need Poland to allow Ukraine to base aircraft there in order to have reason to declare war with Poland - they'd have already done so on the basis of Poland, and other countries, supplying Ukraine with weapons.

    My thoughts are that it will take direct intervention by an EU/NATO country for Russia to declare war, there. The last thing Russia would be wanting to do at the moment is open up a second front considering the meal they're making of the present one.

    Besides, Belarus are offering support to Russia, allowing their country to be used as a base for the invasion of Ukraine, but I don't think they're necessarily at war with Ukraine. At the very least, I have seen no involvement from Lukashenko other than his offering to host peace talks in Minsk.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 984 ✭✭✭Still stihl waters 3


    What are the chances of say Poland saying fcuk this and sending troops and jets, they've been here before and know what can happen if a lunatic like putin is given half a chance, if the likes of Poland did get involved militarily will other countries follow them ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭maxamillius


    so Putin is basically doing as he pleases while the EU and NATO stand by and watch. I think everyone understands the severity of the outcome should anyone intervene however do we just standby and let him do what he wants, where will he stop? Serious question but could he not just be killed? I don’t think any of his party would continue on this war without him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,369 ✭✭✭Rossi IRL


    Apparently it's a mistranslation


    It's a 4 m/km convoy, 40 m/km from Kiev



  • Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    There's an element of that which is universal, but I was talking to an African fella yesterday and while he, like all of us, can see Putin for what he is --a bully and a thief-- what he cared about most was the reports of mistreatment of Africans by Ukranians and others in the region.

    He stopped short of saying what I know some African-Americans would be saying: this war is some crazy white people sh1t. (Don't mention Rwanda, I suppose.)

    The African Union has put a carefully worded statement out about it:

    A twitter search for 'Africans' and 'Ukraine' is eye opening and provides another perspective.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,891 ✭✭✭✭briany


    He could be killed, but I think he's budgeted for the idea that he's an assassination target and probably takes every precaution it is possible to take.

    If there were any credible hint of involvement by the West in his assassination, that could escalate rather than de-escalate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    They are kicking up **** because it is women and children only on the trains, and if any men are on the trains it is family. They seem to think it's the Titanic and they were in first class.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx




  • Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well, I simply don't know the truth of it, or the answer. But the poster I was responding to was wondering about global solidarity and stories like this don't help. (I would prefer to see the type of solidarity AyeGer is looking for.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    @MeepMeep2021 wrote:

    He stopped short of saying what I know some African-Americans would be saying: this war is some crazy white people sh1t. (Don't mention Rwanda, I suppose.)

    I suppose makes a difference from white people looking at wars in Africa and thinking: this is just some crazy African sh1t.

    It's a tough one. Obviously it's wrong, it shouldn't be happening. There are reports that black refugees are being sent to the back of queues at the border and told that "Ukrainians" have priority - even if that person is Ukrainian.

    Ukraine and Poland are still largely homogenous populations like Ireland before 2000, and we know that with that comes a lot of ignorance and assumption.

    But how do you deal with those issues in the middle of a war? An EU order to Poland to treat all refugees equally? Great. That'll be really helpful when it gets passed in 6 months' time.

    I would hope that Polish & EU leaders are hearing these reports and putting pressure on the military to sort it out, but to a certain extent it feels like a distraction during an emergency.

    Like you say though, there is the potential for an easy win here; get some North African nations on board in condemning Putin, perhaps even getting involved in sanctions, and you've got a level of unity that the world hasn't seen in centuries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,748 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Ignore, need more coffee



  • Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well Algeria should be happy... they will be selling surplus gas to the Eu to make up any Russian shortfall.

    Yes, it is messy. And saddening. And Russia is problem number one right now.

    I'm interested in other perspectives though. Here's a clip from the BBC that is going around the Arab world like wildfire. Speaking about 'European people with blue eyes and blond hair" has not gone down well AT ALL (and that's not good because of the solidarity aspect):




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Russian missile missed it's target of Kharkiv government buildings. A few more civilians hit





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,396 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    I live beside one of the main border crossings from Ukraine into Poland.

    I have interacted with both Indian and Africans.

    Language is most notably a major problem.

    At the moment any males in respective of nationality and are of able-bodied are not given top priority they are given food clothing ect but can wait till frail ingered sick woman children old are looked after.

    At least see with my own eyes they have all been treated with respect and dignity.


    Red Cross are trying to help them directly now.

    As problem aroused with some males trying to force there way onto shuttle buses transporting woman and children to designated areas of support.

    I believe all Indian students persons have be evacuated as private buses from England and persons dealt with them.



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  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If Poland is allowing jets fly from its territory then Putin could send missiles or jets into Poland. This wont trigger Nato's article 5 as far as I understand it



This discussion has been closed.
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