French Pres thread -2022

The big losers from Zemmour joining the race are Le Pen (obviously) but also Macron as it splits the far-right vote and makes it more likely that he'll end up in the second round with the one candidate who could actually beat him, Pecresse.

Seems like there should be a lot of space to Macron's left?

It would be great to see Jean-Luc Melenchon make it to the second round, but the left in France is in bits, so sadly it does not seem likely.

The average French is reasonably aware of how Brexit is going on for ‘Les Anglais’, as the unfolding consequences are covered with some regularity in TV news pieces on TF1, France 2 and ‘serious’ papers like Le Monde.

But more than the evidence-based redundancy of Frexit, for Le Pen I think it’s more a case of having been eclipsed by Zemmour at the schlock end of candidacies and the associated media glare. Zemmour is like a cross between the populism of Farage and the extremism of Tommy Robinson wrapped in a Courrèges suit, courting controversy on far right themes with the regularity of a metronome for the past few months, but these days tapering severely down. Le Pen was never ‘in it’, keeping very light -not to say silent- on far/hard right topics, possibly as she’s still engaged in distancing her party and name from the resolutely negative connotations that ‘Front National’ carries (-and forever will, in all likelihood).

I’m getting this sense that French people are fed up of seeing snake oil merchants like Zemmour and the French media got the message. We’re just seeing a never-ending stream of hopefuls declaring for the contest, and then dropping off the race within weeks (even Hollande is now rumoured to have a stab at it this week).

It’s a reasonable certitude that Macron will win it, if not walk it. Of more interest are the next Législatives (MP elections) in June 2022 as I think Macron’s party will get a black eye or two, by the centre left and/or greens mostly.

Well that's the end of that as a contest then. The Economist have a model that gave Macron a 78% chance of winning 2 weeks ago.

I just checked it now and he's gone up to 85%.

Looks like Macron's to lose. A glance at the opinion polls shows a lot of flux with Zemmour/Le Pen/Pécresse rising and falling over the last few months with a few smaller players having the odd blip and dip too, but the dominant theme is that Macron's numbers barely change. The challengers are all just fighting for the same pie and none seem to be gaining at Macron's expense.

As for the National Front/Rally, they apparently always have their eye on the next election. Marion Maréchal is their next big thing but I don't see how she can do any better than Marine Le Pen.

All it would take is a centrist with no baggage like Macron was himself. The 2 big parties are still reeling from the legacies of their last Presidents and seem to have doubled down on their left or right stances. All the rest in the race are loopers in some shape or form.

That's pretty shocking given her profile as "the main opposition" for so long now. I wonder is Zemmour convincing people to keep her out of the race.

Don't see why it's good news for Macron. Zemmour has none of the baggage that FN and their fascist history have. LePen had probably hit her ceiling in terms of people willing to vote for them so it was a sure win for Macron

Zemmour’s themes (or whoever else pushes them, for that matter) appeal a lot to some of the French electorate, enough to vote for him (or whoever else etc.), and always would.

But he’s not half the politician which Marine LePen is, nor does he have her poise and statesmanship (yes, arguably she has some…enough at that level of operation, at any rate).

These features count for a lot with a non-trivial volume of notional LePen voters, who favour her for her socio-economic populist policies rather than (or over) anti-immigration/anti-European policies.

Wherein voters disenfranchised by a withdrawal of LePen are IMHO as likely to vote Mélenchon (or any other heavyweight contestarian), as to not vote at all instead, rather than vote Zemmour.

Fantastic. I'm loving all of these apologists having this blow up in their faces: Farage, Orban and Tucker Carlson to name just a few. They all thought that Putin was simply a political troll that they could use for their own benefit. They should all be reminded up their previous statements about him for the rest of their careers.

Zemmour seeks to recuperate the populist-racist vote disenfranchised by Marine LePen’s mixed messaging away from traditional Front National tropes. And a side helping of 1st round vote malcontents, of course.

His genetic and religious make-up doesn’t come into it. That electorate would vote for Bokassa if he was campaigning on the same themes.