French Pres thread -2022

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971363#Comment_118971363

A single vote would be a terrible system. In a crowded field you could have a candidate winning with less than a third of the vote. That is a sure fire way to end up with an extremist candidate eventually.

The second round acts as a way to moderate the electorate as people who voted for the eliminated candidates in the first round get to vote against extremist candidates.

Donald Trump was able to win the Republican nomination in 2016 due to those primaries not having this kind of system in place. It was a massively crowded field and the combination of his name recognition and his populist demagoguery was enough to win loads of states with less than 40% of the vote.

L1011

...or you do your single vote the way we do it, which would probably deliver the same outcome (but could also have let Mechelon in; or more people would have voted for Hidalgo/Pecresse to begin with, or any other range of outcomes - but almost definitely not Le Pen)

pixelburp

Isn't debating the system also avoiding the discussion about why LePen has got increasingly closer to the Presidency in the first place? She's only 53 so would have a few more elections within her and it didn't seem like the Russian Connection cratered her chances. Clearly there's some discontentment going on in regional France and has kept her relevant - and more popular than the last time. Is it just 'cos she's promising Jam Tomorrow or is France truly indulging in the right-wing, prejudicial politics she's pretending to be no part of?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973577#Comment_118973577

We don't do a single vote. All our elections are PR-STV so anyone winning single seat elections (Presidential or by-election) needs to get over 50% of the vote or be the last person standing. That is a big moderating factor.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973630#Comment_118973630

Bit of both (jam tomoz + ‘masqued FN tropes’), I think, aided and abetted by the sentiment expressed overleaf by swiwi_ in post #97.

And probably more complex still, e.g. there’s just as much disinformation peddled by ultras at both ends of the political spectrum in France, as in many other countries (US, UK, Poland, …), all lapped up by the same angry-at-everything mob and echoed in the MSM for ratings.

That’s the demand-creation side of LePen’s (and similar assorted others’) political market, and a fundamental issue -still- in modern day democracies, for the effect which it inevitably returns at ballot boxes.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973630#Comment_118973630

She barely made it to the second round so I would say it's the jam thing. Only Macron couldn't go down that route

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973714#Comment_118973714

The S in that stands for Single, remember.

For a one seat outcome it's more often referred to as Instant Runoff, designed to give the same results as this type of runoff but on a single ballot.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974035#Comment_118974035

I think she has done well last two times to get to the final 2, Macron and Melenchon no matter your views on them are formidable.

She clearly has skills as a politician as she has increased her vote share last few times, but sadly for her she seems yet again after reaching the final 2 to have finished poorly, her absurd Nato comments ..... and obviously the 2017 "debate " performance.

Fascinating to see how she progresses, their has to be an element of her base who want some fresh blood, but she doesn't seem keen on going anywhere.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975298#Comment_118975298

As is clear from the example of the UK, being a good campaigner does not equate to being a good politician or a good leader.

Le Pen seems to have a decent nose for what she can and can not get away with but her clear fascist sympathies have been her undoing though not by much. I can't see her ever winning. Someone like her sans baggage, sure but not her. She's tainted by her past just like her father.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975393#Comment_118975393

Yeah if she runs again I think that would be her 4th time in a row ffs.

The appeal of Trump for many he was new and anti establishment. Le Pen may say otherwise but she is an establishment politician who has been around for what seems like forever and has lost way to much previously. They don't share policies but for me her running next time would feel a bit like Hilary in 2024, even the devout would want something newer.