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French Pres thread -2022

Rjd2

Looks a relatively straight forward affair as Macron should sail through, but nonetheless a thread.

So how does this Macron lose this? He will never say it obviously but he will be hoping Le Pen or Zemmour join him in the final two as its near impossible for either to beat him, Pecresse in the final two v him is much more tricky, yes he is still fav but she would have a realistic chance of winning.

On the candidates for those unfamiliar, Le Pen far right nationalist with some lefty economics thrown in, it looks like this is one run to many, seem to have been around for absolute ages, on reflection the niece should have been picked but ah well it is what it is.

Zemmour a very right wing tv host, has generated a lot of buzz but seems to be slipping and Pecresse a conservative who would have Merkel and Thatcher as role models.

Worryingly little from the left to concern anyone, Melenchon is running yet again, bar something wild happening he won't get near the final two, Hildalgo may run but she won't concern anyone.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/07/french-presidential-election-who-s-who-in-the-race-to-replace-macron

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Brussels Sprout

The big losers from Zemmour joining the race are Le Pen (obviously) but also Macron as it splits the far-right vote and makes it more likely that he'll end up in the second round with the one candidate who could actually beat him, Pecresse.

Seems like there should be a lot of space to Macron's left?

Rjd2

Betting on politics is flawed, but looking at that and polls its pretty much only the 4 right wingers and communist Melenchon who have any realistic hope of making top 4.

I think LePen might just pip Pecresse to the run off and won't improve her showing significantly from 2017.

Boulevardier

It would be great to see Jean-Luc Melenchon make it to the second round, but the left in France is in bits, so sadly it does not seem likely.

breezy1985

Le Pen I think has taken a huge hit now that Brexit has proven to be a disaster. Many will remember when she was the forefront of such hair brained nonsense.

Ending subsidies for green energy will lose you more than it will gain in votes these days too.

I feel sorry for Hidalgo because in different times she would be a great candidate but SP are not even in the conversation.

ambro25

The average French is reasonably aware of how Brexit is going on for ‘Les Anglais’, as the unfolding consequences are covered with some regularity in TV news pieces on TF1, France 2 and ‘serious’ papers like Le Monde.

But more than the evidence-based redundancy of Frexit, for Le Pen I think it’s more a case of having been eclipsed by Zemmour at the schlock end of candidacies and the associated media glare. Zemmour is like a cross between the populism of Farage and the extremism of Tommy Robinson wrapped in a Courrèges suit, courting controversy on far right themes with the regularity of a metronome for the past few months, but these days tapering severely down. Le Pen was never ‘in it’, keeping very light -not to say silent- on far/hard right topics, possibly as she’s still engaged in distancing her party and name from the resolutely negative connotations that ‘Front National’ carries (-and forever will, in all likelihood).

I’m getting this sense that French people are fed up of seeing snake oil merchants like Zemmour and the French media got the message. We’re just seeing a never-ending stream of hopefuls declaring for the contest, and then dropping off the race within weeks (even Hollande is now rumoured to have a stab at it this week).

It’s a reasonable certitude that Macron will win it, if not walk it. Of more interest are the next Législatives (MP elections) in June 2022 as I think Macron’s party will get a black eye or two, by the centre left and/or greens mostly.

breezy1985

Rep. candidate Pecresse seems to be slipping after lacklustre campaigning and is losing the middle ground after references to "the great replacement"

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220214-a-titanic-flop-lacklustre-paris-rally-piles-pressure-on-conservative-front-runner-p%C3%A9cresse

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643454#Comment_118643454

Well that's the end of that as a contest then. The Economist have a model that gave Macron a 78% chance of winning 2 weeks ago.

I just checked it now and he's gone up to 85%.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645651#Comment_118645651

She seemed to have been the real hope of being the semi hard right that could win the runoff but that looks dashed now.

Long way to go yet but it looks like everyone bar Macron is too right or left to compete.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645664#Comment_118645664

Disappointing to see the Republican candidate resort to such desperation. That sort of dogwhistling needs to be fully embraced in order to stand a chance with the Zemmour and LePen voting bases. As it stands, she's just risked alienating the centre and centre-right with it for no benefit.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645832#Comment_118645832

She either sensed things were already on the slide and gambled or she really believes that nonsense.

My guess would be that she hopes to ride it into the run off by taking LePens vote and then try soften against Macron.

Sam Russell

There will not be a run off is Macron gets 50%plus.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646503#Comment_118646503

I forgot about that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/french-reporter-infiltrates-campaign-of-far-right-presidential-candidate-eric-zemnour-france

Interesting read about Zemmour although none of it comes as a surprise. The online pile ons certainly won't surprise Boards users

Manach

For historical reasons I'd always favour the nationalist Gaullist/conservative canditate. It is a pity she is slipping in the polls, but if she was in any way viable the progressives would have piled on and labelled her with the usual hackneyed phrases the left use for anyone not kowtowing to their party line.

Rjd2

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/02/17/competition-among-france-s-far-right-as-several-of-marine-le-pen-s-party-members-defect

Seems like the LePen campaign is a mess really. Obviously best case scenario for her is to win ,,duh.....but in the real would she will be doing very well to get to the final 2 and getting about 40% in a run off v Macron.

Her niece clearly has her eye on 2027 and doesn't want to be around a 3 time loser in the closing stages of this race.

CrabRevolution

Looks like Macron's to lose. A glance at the opinion polls shows a lot of flux with Zemmour/Le Pen/Pécresse rising and falling over the last few months with a few smaller players having the odd blip and dip too, but the dominant theme is that Macron's numbers barely change. The challengers are all just fighting for the same pie and none seem to be gaining at Macron's expense.

As for the National Front/Rally, they apparently always have their eye on the next election. Marion Maréchal is their next big thing but I don't see how she can do any better than Marine Le Pen.

Brussels Sprout

It's frankly incredible that Macron is coasting to victory while having an approval rating under 40%.

It's a pretty bad indictment of the opposition in France.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668333#Comment_118668333

All it would take is a centrist with no baggage like Macron was himself. The 2 big parties are still reeling from the legacies of their last Presidents and seem to have doubled down on their left or right stances. All the rest in the race are loopers in some shape or form.

Brussels Sprout

This is an interesting development:

https://twitter.com/France24_en/status/1496439703301615618

If she drops out then I guess there's more chance of Zimmour making the run-off which is even more good news for Macron

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677547#Comment_118677547

That's pretty shocking given her profile as "the main opposition" for so long now. I wonder is Zemmour convincing people to keep her out of the race.

Don't see why it's good news for Macron. Zemmour has none of the baggage that FN and their fascist history have. LePen had probably hit her ceiling in terms of people willing to vote for them so it was a sure win for Macron

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677742#Comment_118677742

Of the 3 main opposition candidates Macron polls best versus Zemmour in a run-off (62-38). Here's what the Economist say about that prospect in their model:

Macron is extremely likely to win (~98/100)

The chance of this run-off occurring is modest. It would probably see Mr Macron squarely defeat Mr Zemmour, a newcomer to politics with a largely single-issue (anti-immigration) campaign. Mr Zemmour would struggle to appeal beyond his narrow nationalist and far-right base; centre-right support is likely to go—decisively—to Mr Macron.

link

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118677742#Comment_118677742

Zemmour’s themes (or whoever else pushes them, for that matter) appeal a lot to some of the French electorate, enough to vote for him (or whoever else etc.), and always would.

But he’s not half the politician which Marine LePen is, nor does he have her poise and statesmanship (yes, arguably she has some…enough at that level of operation, at any rate).

These features count for a lot with a non-trivial volume of notional LePen voters, who favour her for her socio-economic populist policies rather than (or over) anti-immigration/anti-European policies.

Wherein voters disenfranchised by a withdrawal of LePen are IMHO as likely to vote Mélenchon (or any other heavyweight contestarian), as to not vote at all instead, rather than vote Zemmour.

ambro25

Well…so much for the LePen vote this year 😏😂

https://twitter.com/AnonEUforUKR/status/1498651645961453573?s=20&t=0m30UV-yjCIWKAwRgiOdsg

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118714097#Comment_118714097

Fantastic. I'm loving all of these apologists having this blow up in their faces: Farage, Orban and Tucker Carlson to name just a few. They all thought that Putin was simply a political troll that they could use for their own benefit. They should all be reminded up their previous statements about him for the rest of their careers.

marieholmfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118678219#Comment_118678219

Zemmour is an African Jew. Frenchness is of course cultural not racial or genetic but the sort of people Zemmour seeks to appeal to may disagree.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118714908#Comment_118714908

Zemmour seeks to recuperate the populist-racist vote disenfranchised by Marine LePen’s mixed messaging away from traditional Front National tropes. And a side helping of 1st round vote malcontents, of course.

His genetic and religious make-up doesn’t come into it. That electorate would vote for Bokassa if he was campaigning on the same themes.

CrabRevolution

The Russia-Ukraine war should finish off any small chance of Le Pen, Zemmour and Mélenchon winning. Not that it'll damage their standing with their base, but their open admiration of Putin will scare off a lot of more moderate voters who may be considering having a punt on them.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1499140615971512321

That's really good numbers when it comes to France, this is done and dusted.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118714097#Comment_118714097

For what its worth on Betfair she is 2/5 which is the shortest betting price she has ever been to finish in the final 2, so while that's not the bible , it does seem likely she will finish in the final 2.

I think if offered the same result as 2017 she would take it. The niece will run in 2027, I don't see how she puts together the coalition needed to challenge. Marion for her many flaws at least tried to placate the left with her economics, the niece will be hardcore conservatism turned up to 11.

Rjd2

not a surprise but nonetheless another blow to Marion Le Pen.

https://twitter.com/CerfiaFR/status/1500587378066575363

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749074#Comment_118749074

I know they don't get on but that's still pretty snakey