Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

And again, as this had to be often stated. A scientist giving their worst case scenario is just that. It's not saying it will happen. That those numbers are the worst he thinks COULD happen. I'm sure if people really wanted to they could see that obvious distinction.

As Walus keeps using dictionary definitions of words, he obviously finds how they are used important. He has consistently used words and phrases to push the idea that McConkey and others were promoting that Covid was "several orders of magnitude" more deadly flu. And that he said 200k could die. That has now been shown to be untrue.

Words do matter. I repeatedly asked you for evidence that was you were saying was correct. You could not. Someone who was trying to come to your support has actually confirmed you got your numbers way off.

Simple as.

3 orders of magnitude is x1000

6 orders of magnitude is a x 1,000,000

Again, which scientists said this? Please provide evidence.

McConkey said in his worst case prediction that between 80-120k could die. That's ONÉ order of magnitude. Not several. One order of magnitude in his WORST case prediction.

You have just written AGAIN that scientists like McConkey have said this. Then you say "There is no denying that no matter how hard you try".

You seem sure. Please provide evidence. That's all I have asked for. Actual evidence that ANY of McConkey and his evil duplicitous scientific minions said this.

Few days after I initially made this request now. Still absolutely nothing. Just smears that cant be backed up.

I don't know why you try to get hung up on semantics. We have 6k deaths with covid after 2 years. The prediction was six digit figures over an unspecified timeframe.

A quick google defines 'orders of magnitude' as n = a * 10^b with b being the order of magnitude. So yes its not several orders but its definitely a different order of magnitude.

I guess people take orders of magnitude as n = a * 10^1 with a being the magnitude.

So yes you're right but it doesn't really make a difference for this argument I think. McConkey's worst case scenario was off by factor 20. Not just a bit off.

But yes, you're right.

Thank you for admitting that. And as for semantics, as I said, Walus was the one who made sure that he was specifically referring to several orders of magnitude more deadly than flu. That this was what scientists like McConkey we're saying. So I then asked him to back that up. He defined the terms, I said OK, show me proof on your terms.

And it 100% does make a difference to the argument. My point is people like Walus use incorrect info to try and smear scientists, making them seem like they have said something they haven't. It's important. No one said what Walus was claiming they said.

I appreciate you saying you were wrong. That doesn't happen much here, and I genuinely respect it.

For sure and it also suggests that we will more or less follow suit at the end of the month.

If older people feel safe wearing them they should nit be judged for that but it shouldn’t be a legal req

No problem with that. If people want to continue to wear masks everywhere (including on their own in cars!) then work away.

But leave the rest of us alone to live normally.

I wonder where that will leave people who want to wear a mask and run a public facing business like a shop or group activity. Will they still be able to choose mandatory mask wearing on their premises/at their activity. I do a couple of different exercise classes where mask wearing has been mandatory, even when it didn't have to be. I accept it but hate it. Exercise in a mask is genuinely horrible. Tbh, during times of high infection/risk I've chosen to wear a mask in places that it wasn't required, even though I hate it because I weighed it up and decided that I'd wear a mask rather than not go. But I think that once mask wearing is no longer actually considered necessary, I'll be loathe to wear one because someone else is nervous.

When it ceases to be mandatory, mask wearing will have no legal force and people will go elsewhere if pushed to wear one. Never experienced that with exercise as our gym never applied it at any time. It sounds very unpleasant.

Alek Smart, you don't seem to understand what a worst case scenario is. It is not prediction of what will happen, it is the most unlikely scenario of what could.

You say:

"NOWHERE did Mr McConkey's predictions carry a "Public Health Warning" along the lines of "These predictions are not necessarily accurate",which might have calmed the general public instead of convincing them that the End was Nigh."

What a bizarre statement you have just made. Are you saying that you don't understand what a worst case scenario is? Why did you believe only his least likely scenario to occur to be the one that needs a" public health warning"?

I'm genuinely stumped about how you can't grasp this.

No bother.

The "WORST CASE SCENARIO !" is just that.

Most people in their daily hum-drum lives do the WCS assessment constantly,as they decide which side of bed to get out of,which route to take to work,what amount of grief to give the boss etc.

There are Best & Worst Case Scenario's arising before us all,everyday.

This process continues across the entirety of our human condition,even up to individuals suffering from terminal illnesses deciding which therapies best suit them,even if their choices do not concur with their professional advisers.

In short,dealing with WCS's is more common than many realize.

What Ordinary people generally do is use their own senses,common or not to make their own decisions,some good,some bad,but largely it works for most of us.

What was different this time round,was the decision of the McConkeys et al,to go for broke by actively utilising the Mainstream Media to put the WORST CASE SCENARIO relentlessly across print,broadcast and internet 24/7.

The Common Man,wherever he may inhabit,is remarkably prone to manipulation,all the more so when the manipulators are bigged-up far beyond James Brown level.

Don't be unduly concerned by the stumping,Croohur,as Covid-19 and it's handling has stumped most people far beyond the mere bizzarre.

Hopefully,as many countries now enter the review & audit phase,we may see a couple more MSM outlets following the Danish Ekstra Bladet newspaper and admitting that their own performance has been seriously flawed in how they failed to question the Official Line,from whichever suit was on Frightline duty each day.

I would not be as harsh in the Danish case,as at least some of their 4th estate are critically reviewing their role in Covid-19.

However,I await any such reflection on the part of our own Media,and it's professional Scientific contributors who were all too ready with whatever "Scenario" would grab the attention of the lumpen masses to ensure full Compliance with the Emergency Legislation's requirements.

C'mon Professor's...surely your elevated status can also allow for some introspective analysis...or were you really correct ALL of the time ?

I think those involved in healthcare and especially modelling should go on a study trip to Denmark where they do things properly. Afaik the only country that got the Omikron modelling spot on, factoring in every possible data point including data from Botswana and RSA plus behaviour/ psychology estimations.

You cant come to any other conclusions that the majority of faulty modelling was based on the judgement of uncertainty principles, themselves based on biased reasoning. I saw this coming from a mile away when they dismissed the RSA data out of hand. Dismissing up to date data points is a clear indicator that your outcome will be more biased than is reasonable, especially when you put too much faith in parameters that have even greater uncertainties.. No major mea culpa forthcoming though. In fact it is a doubling down. Yes, the models didnt reflect reality BUT no, we were not wrong dismissing some factors because of the 'uncertainty principle'. Sad

Yep,

Just another attention whore who used the pandemic as a means to gain notoriety and a semblance of fame, the article above a desperate attempt to retain some form of relevance when the pandemic was coming to an end.

Theyve sprung up everywhere in the last 2 years, particularly on twitter, creatures such as your one Orla the architect and her sidekick Olive still desperately clambering for the fear to return for the plain and simple reason that they are now simply being ignored. Attention whores whos only means of relevance is fear, how sad!!

It will be interesting to see who the real sheep are.

I would be surprised if any businesses or group activity organisers tried to do this. I don't see why they would if the pandenic is effectively over.