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Are there any credible conspiracy theories?

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Nah, just nobody would believe them if they said they didn't. A conspiracy would require some illegal plot to do something evil, this is just Israel not admitting to having nuclear weapons.

    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conspiracy

    If they were to be involved in some plot to steal weapons from other states, or providing dirty bombs to other groups or something along those lines then it might make a conspiracy. As it is it is just Israel keeping quiet about state secrets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Okay but stuff like that doens't cut it, you can't "prove" that the building didn't fall due to fire to someone who is determined not to accept it. This is why these types of people exclusively ask others to do just that.

    Instead, they need to be asked to provide the alternative-theory. If it doesn't measure up, then there's nothing to discuss



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney


    Surely Steven Jackson for George Floyd.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Actually there was an insurance case that tried to prove the building was badly constructed (in order to avoid the hefty insurance payout) but an investigation found it wasn't the case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,945 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    no conspiracy, unless the israelis are conspiring with themselves. they do have them they just refuse to talk about them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭Cheerful S


    All-natural collapses it is the descending building that destroys the underneath section.

    The engineering issue for building seven, the descending building is not what destroyed the underlying section. It was already cleared away and removed before this descending . . That's impossible, the only known method that can do this is by demolition.

    It does take much time and effort to confirm this, you or for others not convinced,

    NIST denied freefall when first made statements to the press and waiting media.. Their computer model, the underlaying structure had resistance. NIST models, never changed. It not like the went away and released updates one's based on the new information uncovered. Fact freefall occurred here means external energy was used to clear away the structural columns to allow the top half of the building to fall.

    Study NIST's statement with open eyes and you see fires could not have caused the freefall. They denied it anyway. This is not halfway through the study, this was a conference them presenting the draft of the final report - the collapse of building seven ( Six years after it started) after 100s of hours looking at how it may have collapsed.

    Statement, this is a denial of freefall.

    Breakdown for you.

    The analysis is the computer models and studies.

    Notice the first line!!

    Last line NIST is telling you what their so-called Analysis is showing them!!!


    [A] free-fall time would be an object that has no structural components below it.... What the analysis shows...is that same time it took for the structural model to come down...is 5.4 seconds. It’s about 1.5 seconds, or roughly 40 percent, more time for that free fall to happen. And that is not at all unusual because there was structural resistance that was provided in this particular case.”



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Been through this multiple times, no credible alternative theories exist, none. Any investigations to discover how the building fell found it fell due to fire. No surprise there.

    Feel free at any point to present your theory, your last one involved secret Nazi's.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,728 ✭✭✭storker


    Just for clarity, are you Cheerful Spring reincarnated?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,915 ✭✭✭✭The Nal


    Hes back to secret Nazis now. For nearly everything.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,728 ✭✭✭storker


    I think the most compelling one I've ever heard - actually it's more of an honest hypothesis than a conspiracy theory and I don't recall where it came from - is that many of the big conspiracy theories since (and possibly including) 9/11 were started or at least encouraged by the U.S. government with the aim of keeping Internet nosy-parkers too busy chasing shadows to stumble across or concentrate on any of the stuff that's happening in plain sight. All it would really require would be a bunch of people with computers and Internet access. In fact, as a project it could have been wound up long ago since by now the big CTs have built up their own momentum and no longer need that initial push.

    While the Flat Earth theory could come under the above, I strongly suspect that it actually started as a wind-up. Someone took the daftest conspiracy theory they could find and ran with it as a prank or social experiment and "ran it up the flagpole" just to see how many suckers would salute it. They rolled a pebble down the hill and unexpectedly started a landslide...

    Granted, these are more hypotheses than theories (like most conspiracy theories), and there's no direct evidence to support them (like most conspiracy theories!) but I'd submit that they're much more plausible since they don't require magic thermite, dancing Jews, faked satellite photos of the planet, faked space missions, or a vast conspiracy network of multiple people across multiple organisations that somehow manage never to leak the secret.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    I'm sure that the likes of Qanon started out as a joke, and can vaguely remember reading a writeup in the early days before it got widespread explaining what joke forum it came from. Not been able to find those links since though as it's been taken over by a new history that tries to make out that it is all from genuine sources in the begining.



  • Posts: 25,874 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you've the time to spare this podcast does a pretty thorough history of the whole thing and points to some of the possible originators.


    Long story short, it started on 4chan between porn pictures and anti-Semitism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Whichever parts you find relevant. The opening paragraphs give an overview of the findings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭Cheerful S


    Freddie. watch how NIST answers the freefall question. Listen closely to the answer NIST gave about the freefall event originally. NIST said freefall was impossible since a sequence of failures had to take place first and nothing was instant. All this does make sense if fires is what brought down the building.

    The Backtracked later soon as they realized the big flaw and the truther community was right all the time. Instead of admitting the fire analysis was flawed, used language, to cover up that freefall inside a building, not a natural event caused by a sequence of failures..


    Post edited by Cheerful S on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Nope, they got jumped by truthers who had no interest in the findings, only in discovering something, anything that could be construed as a "mistake".

    Here we go again, you are going to take it from the top to rehash every truther talking point to relive the fantasy that a giant plot took place on 9/11 which all the experts, investigators, foreign intelligence agencies, media, everyone missed, except for a bunch of internet people who can't explain what it was nor have an ounce on consensus on it, many of whom (like yourself) coincidentally believe in loads of other conspiracies they can't explain either.

    The "smarter" truthers just engage in denial, because anyone, anywhere can pick through the minutiae of any large event or investigation "not getting" certain points, acting incredulous at others, demanding explanations they are never going to accept. I can create an alternative account and do that all day.

    It's very simple, if something else happened, explain what it was. Demonstrate it. You should be subjecting it (and other conspiracies) to the same level of scrutiny as you apply to the widely established version of events you are attacking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You claimed the building fell due to "bad foundations", okay. I've followed this 9/11 stuff I am aware there was a case that covered this, and refuted it, with a thorough study. You asked for the details, I provided it. What is your issue with that?

    If there's a study or report or investigation that which determined that cause (or part of the cause) was "bad foundations", fine, feel free to provide it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 506 ✭✭✭Freddie Mcinerney


    I said the pages of relevance for the tower falling. Not my interpretation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,741 ✭✭✭celtic_oz


    Couple of conspiracy theories, scoffed at, at first then proved to be true

    THE GREAT LIGHTBULB CONSPIRACY The Phoebus cartel engineered a shorter-lived lightbulb and gave birth to planned obsolescence


    The Tuskegee Syphilis experiment, gave rise to a conspiracy theory that the US government was withholding syphilis diagnosis on purpose and then giving placeboes to see what happened!

    Turned out to be true and on May 16, 1997, President Bill Clinton formally apologized on behalf of the United States to victims of the study, calling it shameful and racist. "What was done cannot be undone, but we can end the silence," he said. "We can stop turning our heads away. We can look at you in the eye, and finally say, on behalf of the American people, what the United States government did was shameful and I am sorry.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    flatearthsociety.org (as it was originally in the 90's) was more of an exercise in debating, how to prove an untruth, but they have become an effective way to control parts of the population, the GOP has many dancing on the end of a string about the "big steal".

    As I've said before, if I wanted to control things, I would invent something that doesn't work but sounds plausible (Ivermectin cures SARS-COV2) and then target that as a way to get whatever chemicals or chips I wanted to get into people, that the conspiracies themselves are ridiculously easy to exploit in various different ways by anyone with half a brain is a common theme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,639 ✭✭✭completedit


    Didn't the CIA infiltrate the Black Panthers in the 60's and drum up extremism?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Tuskegee wasn't really a conspiracy as they kept publishing all the data in medical journals of the time, there were victims but it was a huge case of medical malpractice rather than something conspiratorial going on, these type of experiments happened throughout history with many victims depending on what the doctor/scientist was researching, this one just happened to occur relatively recently but before there was oversight on what was going on.

    Planned obsolescence wasn't really a conspiracy either, again, in an information vacuum, these things can exist, most good manufacturers (e.g. miele, Siemens, Neff) market themselves on long customer support timeframes, their appliances are engineered to last longer (usually more use of metal and thicker metal with better welds), you literally get what you pay for in those instances. Dubai has a monopoly on a better light bulb, it produces better light and lasts longer than normal LED, the secret was just using more LED and putting less wattage through each one, when the patents run out, the world will get it (if they're willing to pay extra for it and they're not dimmable), again, access to information makes it very hard to do that these days. But you are essentially calling any case where a company hid the real cost of something a conspiracy and that's not the case, that's business and still occurs today (printer manufacturers do the same with ink, but lots of other companies have set themselves up to exploit that).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The whole study concerns why WTC 7 fell and how it wasn't due to design/construction errors, so it's all relevant. To summarise:

    Basis of the study:

    This report is in rebuttal to the reports [Bailey, 2010], [Nordenson, 2010a], [Nordenson 2010b], [Colaco 2010] and [Torero 2010] offered by plaintiffs’ experts concerning the collapse of 7 World Trade Center (WTC 7) as a result of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The plaintiffs’ experts’ central hypothesis is that design and construction errors were the proximate cause of the collapse of WTC 7 and that WTC 7 would not have collapsed but for these errors. I, together with a team of colleagues at Weidlinger Associates Inc., have undertaken a careful review of the opinions of plaintiffs’ experts, and especially of the computer analyses and data which are proffered as a basis for those opinions. 

    Summary of conclusion:

    Based on our analyses and critical review of the analyses, data and engineering judgment of plaintiffs’ experts, we find all of the design errors asserted as a cause of collapse to be either unfounded or based on  erroneous, and even contrived, analyses. Our analyses clearly establish that the attacks of September 11 set-off an unstoppable chain of events, given the circumstances of the day, of such magnitude as to exhaust the capacity of the building structural system over the course of seven hours leading to the ultimate collapse of WTC 7. As discussed herein, the claimed “defects” featured in plaintiffs’ experts’ reports are not defects at all. And none of the changes advocated by plaintiffs’ experts would have prevented the collapse.

    The WTC 7 Building Was Appropriately Designed and Consistent with NYC Building Code Our comprehensive review of the structural design of the WTC 7 Building confirmed that the building was appropriately designed for its intended use. The building was also in compliance with the New York City Building Code. Mr. Levy, in his expert report [Levy, 2010], further determines that the design elements in WTC 7 are consistent with many tall office buildings in New York, including those whose design he has overseen. The WTC 7 Building Collapsed as an Inevitable Consequence of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks Turning our attention to the events of September 11, our analysis of the available photographic, videographic and eyewitness accounts reveals that the collapse of WTC 1 showered a massive amount of hot debris unto WTC 7, severing and destroying substantial portions of the south-facing structural system. As documented in Dr. Beyler’s report [Beyler, 2010], the debris ignited multiple fires on multiple floors of WTC 7. The debris destroyed many of the barriers designed to prevent the spread of fire, and destroyed the sprinkler system designed to retard fire, with the consequence that the fires circulated freely around the building over the course of the day. The NYC Fire Department, having suffered an unprecedented loss of firefighters, lacking water to fight the fires, and concerned about visible structural damage to the building, made the wise decision not to fight the fire once the building occupants had been fully evacuated. The fires were therefore allowed to burn unfought and uncontrolled. In testament to its resilience, WTC 7 withstood massive damage, including the loss and impairment of over a third of its south perimeter column lines, until late in the day on September 11. But multiple unchecked traveling fires, burning simultaneously on consecutive floors, continued their attack on the building. Dr. Beyler [Beyler, 2010] highlights the unusual aspects of such a fire environment, which would not be expected outside of the extraordinary circumstances of September 11. Observations on the day suggest that an unique fire environment was present on the 8th and 9th floors of the building. This imposed high temperatures onto the 9th and 10th floors structures. We undertook a series of high-fidelity nonlinear thermo-mechanical computational analyses to track the highly complex evolution of the structural system response over time under the steel temperatures that Dr. Beyler [Beyler, 2010] derived. We did so by using Weidlinger–developed commercial software, which has been extensively validated for the regime of physics associated with the collapse and destruction of structures, called FLEX. Our analyses include detailed modeling of the entire floor plate east of column line 76-77-78, where the level of resolution includes explicit representation of every element – to the level of every bolt, connection plate and shear stud – that was used in the construction of WTC7. Our analyses show that the initiation of structural failure occurred as a result of high steel temperatures, which degraded the strength and stiffness of the framing and connections, and resulted in very large movements of the floor. These high temperatures occur, not as a result of some defect in the thermal insulation provided by the fire protective material on the steel, but rather by virtue of the long duration of the fires, their extent and locations, and the absence of any fire suppression. When failure does initiate on the east of the 10th floor, as a result of fires on the 9th floor, it occurs in the connections between the beams, and girders. An unzipping of the finplate connections, which connect the floor beams to the girder spanning the east side of the core, occurs and propagates to wider areas of the floor until the entire eastern section of the floor and adjoining bays collapse unto the 9th floor. A key conclusion from this early stage of the collapse sequence is that the particular type of connection is irrelevant to the collapse. Several different types of connections were used on the WTC 7 floors (typically seated, header, fin plate, knife and seated web clip connections), each of which would have been severely challenged by the fire environment on September 11. Our studies indicate that if a particular connection was hypothetically prevented from failing, another one in the vicinity, possibly of a different type, would have failed anyway within minutes, resulting in the same outcome, namely a widespread collapse of the floor system. Accordingly, this is not an instance of a poorly-chosen design detail leading to a collapse, as one of plaintiffs’ experts suggests; rather the floor collapse is a function of the unique and extreme fire environment which had the capacity to overwhelm each type of connection. (continued)

    All there in the first few pages. TLDR: the building fell due to fire, not shoddy construction/design.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭Cheerful S


    Well Dohnjoe, to the report in a minute. Remains true today, annoying and sad never has been a genuine debate between the two sides in court.

    Weidlinger Associates Inc version.

    Quote “These high temperatures occur, not as a result of some defect in the thermal insulation provided by the fire protective material on the steel, but rather by virtue of the long duration of the fires, their extent and locations, and the absence of any fire suppression”

    If you read NIST fact, file about the collapse of seven.

    https://www.nist.gov/world-trade-center-investigation/study-faqs/wtc-7-investigation

    Question 11.How hot did WTC 7’s steel columns and floor beams get?

    A very important question since the Skeptics version is the fires were hot enough to cause failures and bring down the building.

    NIST answer:

    Due to the effectiveness of the spray-applied fire-resistive material (SFRM), or fireproofing, the highest steel column temperatures in WTC 7 only reached an estimated 300 degrees Celsius (570 degrees Fahrenheit), and only on the east side of the building did the steel floor beams exceed 600 degrees Celsius (1,100 degrees Fahrenheit).

    Important part!! However, fire-induced buckling of floor beams and damage to connections—which caused buckling of a critical column initiating collapse—occurred at temperatures below approximately 400 degrees Celsius (where thermal expansion dominates). Above 600 degrees Celsius (1,100 degrees Fahrenheit), there is a significant loss of steel strength and stiffness. In the WTC 7 collapse, the loss of steel strength or stiffness was not as important as the thermal expansion of steel structures caused by heat.

    You can see clearly, read it, the dispute high temperatures caused a failure of the key column structure on the eastside. There is no significant loss of steel strength here below 400c. The fire's ( lower than 400c) duration of fires was irrelevant and was the thermal expansion of the steel girder that triggered everything (NIST version) . Skeptics like yourself are unfamiliar with these studies and claim they all agree, they do not at all. This is why Hulsey's study is important because don't have a failure of the column at 79 due to fire or thermal expansion than one option left to consider.  



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    No study or investigation discovered any "inside job". Still waiting for your conspiracy.



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