Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Questions about our governments intentions/motivation need to be asked at this point. Despite massive disappointments and frustrations over the handling of the pandemic up to now I still believed when its all said and done they want to get us out of this.

I'm no longer certain about that.

Not sure if this has already been posted but this is a very interesting discussion involving Graham Medley the chair of the Sage modelling committee.

In it Medley admits that their models are basically just made up worst case scenarios and little to no science is used and they arent accurate predictions.

Medley is asked

This sort of stuff is data science 101 though. That’s my biggest issue with the modelling, if you presented this stuff in industry without this sort of validation of past results, you’d be laughed out of town. Modelling seems very far beyond state of art data science.

He replies

The point being missed is these scenarios are not predictions. We can’t predict what people are going to do over Christmas (many people themselves are “undecided”). They are made to support a decision to illustrate the possibilities and uncertainty

He then adds

Deepest respect Doug, but we are not predicting. It might be a philosophical stance, but we don’t have the data to make the kind of predictive models that you are thinking of

So the models being produced are not predictions, they are scenarios and they only model scenarios that they are told to model by the Government.

They are modelling worse case scenario but with no probability on it and no best case scenario being produced either.

The Sage and Nphet models have been consistently incorrect over the last 21 months, mostly by huge margins.

The models Sage and Nphet are creating are supposed to be based on probability and likelihood.

Anyone with a scientific, mathematical or analytical qualification can see that the modelling being used is deeply flawed and nonsensical.

Highly likely to absolute certainty.

It makes you wonder. It was the same at the start of the pandemic in Germany. German government didnt actually go to the RKI and asked what is this what do we do? They asked for models that support/justify restriction and lockdowns. Period. This is not a conspiracy theory or a wild claim. Those communications were leaked at the time. They can be found on google. Now you hear the same about SAGE.

All those emergency public health consultation bodies the governments have like nphet etc. Is their purpose to actually assess and investigate and recommend? Or are they just the science veneer for a course thats already been decided?

I think all of the original "what happens if we have a global pandemic" plans were chucked into the bin early doors. Only Sweden really kept to theirs.

The plans ultimately didn't account for politics. Can you be "The person who let all of those people die?". In March-April the term "herd immunity" was being linked to fascism. Boris Johnson was sticking to the plan and was getting hammered for it. I think even we had intentions but were politically under too much pressure to lockdown after the UK did.

I believe in the long run, we will have been proven wrong to approach it the way we did by prolonging the pain. Cancer detections were down 13% last year. We all know cancer didn't just take a year off. 13% is around 5000 people. That's for 2020, it will be like that for 2021 and 2022. That's 15,000 people getting late diagnosis and that's just cancer. There are many other illnesses going untreated/undetected. The economic ruin. Depression. People who have come down with Covid-Hysteria and won't leave their homes.

If we went and did absolutely nothing from March 2020. There would have been maybe 10,000 deaths instead of 5,000. Maybe it would triple to 15,000. The restrictions trade off, still wouldnt have matched the numbers of lives it has ruined.

But in fairness to Government, if you stick to a plan. You have the media publishing death numbers every day. The Opposition and media are call you murderers. Saying "restrictions will ruin more lives than the deaths" is a tough sell.

Actually surprising that they have allowed "Midnight Mass" to go ahead.

Restrictions on religious ceremonies in this country were a total outlier in a European context in 2021.

Pretty much the only place in Europe you couldn't attend a church service on Easter Sunday.

The Church as an institution is utterly despised by the media/political clique and has been for a few decades now... the State wants it's assets and they want them ASAP and COVID has been a useful tool to cut off it's links to society and financial wellbeing.

Amazing that some people still think the Catholic Church holds any sway over Official Ireland.

Why would I not believe that, rather than believe that the often personal abuse being rained down on Tony Holohan is based on nothing other than vague theories that he has a psychological hold on this government where nothing other than his say so counts ?

He is chairman of NPHET and for that theory to hold any water it would mean he also holds some sort of psychological hold over the rest of the boars as well, seeing as the recommendations to Government come from the board of NPHET and not from him personally. There are another 31 members on that board and none of them strike me as the shy wallflower type that just sit there governed by the principle of una duce, una voce.

Is it not more conceivable that Ronan Glynn was on a solo run because he did not agree with the recommendations of the board, rather than Tony Holohan having some undefined control over a board of 31 other experts in their fields where nothing other than his say so counts when it comes to the recommendations to Government.

I get where some are frustrated and even annoyed with Government decisions, but the **** show we experienced at the beginning of this year was not down to Tony Holohan or NPHET. The Government managed to do that all on their own. This often childish name calling and "blame Tony Holohan for everything" are as far fetched as blaming Chris Whitty for decision by the British Government regarding England or even Jaap van Dissel in the Netherlands for restrictions recently brought in that are much harsher than here.

It doesnt seem to suit the narrative to give it air time would seem to be the answer.

Fear sells.

Too many vested interests in the media and anyone who questions the science is more often than not labelled a conspiracy theorist.

Don't forget they are doing 8 times more PCR tests a day with the same population.

Medley has really messed up here but looking at his background it is easy to see how he became chair of the Sage modelling committee - 461 pubs on researchgate relating to modelling viruses etc. Now over on the NPHET side of things we have Philip Nolan who has less than 30 pubs and none are related to modelling. His undergrad is medicine, which he only practiced briefly before switching to research where seems he practised very much at his leisure. What's more he's been Pres of Maynooth for last 10 years which is really a figurehead role. It's not clear how he could have been the best and brightest to lead our fight against Covid.

Serious question - does Snake Oil defer to a named modelling expert under questioning by the press or are we expected to believe he's leading construction of these models himself?

Tony now pointing the blame on those 16 - 34. Any group that hasn't been blamed yet?

I appreciate the offer, but how about just leave people alone again?

Where is he mouthing off now I though he was gagged?