COVID predictions for 2022

18-12-2021 11:10am #1

How do people think this plays out in 2022? Might be fun to look back on in 12 months time.

I think we are going to see a large number of cases over the next few weeks with Omicron but it won't translate into large hospitalisations. Testing will fall apart.

Government and NPHET will panic and bring in more restrictions. Probably full closure of hospitality and maybe retail. Restrictions will be extended and could be March before we start cautiously reopening.

Towards late summer we'll open with masks in place and COVID certs requiring a 3rd shot. Also will have to be careful about reopening schools.

Come Autumn cases will pick up pace and a new variant will eventually emerge along with winter panic. Restrictions quickly brought back in.

On a financial footing, inflation will become a huge concern and government will do everything they can to close sectors without giving PUP.

A grim 2022 in my opinion as the world starts to accept that restrictions are going nowhere.

eggy81 · 18-12-2021 11:13am

It’s getting bad when you can predict a years worth of stupidity.

Timfy · 18-12-2021 11:16am

Short term I think the outlook is a bit grim, but I see omicron as a positive. It shows that the virus is following the standard viral evolutionary path of ever increasing virulence partnered by ever decreasing viral payloads. A few more evolutions and it will hopefully become something akin to Herpes simplex, where pretty much everyone has the virus in their system but medical issues are few and far between.

Fingers crossed eh!

alentejo · 18-12-2021 11:22am

I predict that every one over 50 who tests positive with COVID will be sent anti viral pills to take asap to mitigate against hospitalization.

Bootster shots for everyone before mid October

Each wave slightly less distrupive than previous ones.

Alot more demos against restrictions

Jimi H · 18-12-2021 11:29am

Big case numbers in January. Restrictions extended or increased until Paddys Day. Protect the health service mantra. Covid certs mandatory for more and more sectors. The big hope for me anyway is that omicron proves to be relatively mild and the virus simply runs it’s course. Hopefully these threads will be a thing of the past this time next year and we’re partying like 2018.

bokale · 18-12-2021 11:33am

My hope before yesterday was a big opening of everything in the Spring and a good run at it all for the year.

But yesterday knocks me back a bit as this "vaccine wall" didn't really hold out at all? Even if it was April now would they still be closing things with Omicron on the horizon?

So right now I don't have much hope, but I'm probably not great at reading the figures etc so hopefully well off!

18-12-2021 11:38am

A super variant that turbo charges evolution ridding the world of the least intelligent, obstinate and conspiracy theorists.

Mad_maxx · 18-12-2021 1:40pm

new drive to get kids vaccinated including under fives
introduction of mandatory masking of kids outside schools and masking of all kids attending both primary school and pre school
regarding broader society , open /shut situation regarding hospitality , Michael Martin will herald us emerging from restrictions at end of January , then inevitably sh1t himself in the run up to St Paddys day when cases inevitably rise again , thus returning us to restrictions well into summer
the irish population will for the most part go along with this circus in the name of public respectability

TheDriver · 18-12-2021 2:22pm

I predict a massive resistance to vaccines for under 12s and govt trying everything to remedy.

Jan will see huge case numbers but hospitalisations holding steady, where we all say SA experts were correct.

Radharc na Sleibhte · 18-12-2021 2:27pm

I see us all back reopen by end Jan once they see omicron wasn’t as big a problem as feared. Then onto the next variant.

Danno · 18-12-2021 2:58pm

Current restrictions to run until March 21st.

New variant Rho emerges in April-May.

Fourth and fifth booster campaigns - one around Easter and another in October.

Limited re-opening of hospitality between St. Patrick's and Easter but restrictions re-instated once news of the Rho variant emerges.

Gradual lifting of restrictions in early-August (after BH Weekend)

Nightclubs with limited capacity open mid-August to late-October (closed before last BH Weekend)

Another variant late October called Sigma.

Yet again Christmas lockdown which will finally trigger a collapse of the Government with fresh elections to take place in Spring 2023 - a "caretaker Govt" will limp along through the Christmas-New Year-Winter period.

A kind of rinse and repeat of 2021.

Danno · 18-12-2021 3:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342542#Comment_118342542

They might not go with new variant names, I think they'd come up with "Covid-21" or "Covid-22".

Signore Fancy Pants · 18-12-2021 3:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342548#Comment_118342548

"Covid - The Revenge".

Bigger, stronger, sexier....more teeth.

Lollipop95 · 18-12-2021 3:25pm

rinse and repeat of 2021

18-12-2021 3:40pm

Said it before. Don't see any point in changing now. Things will start to look better after winter is over. Be a shitshow between now and then though.

This isn't the first pandemic. All the previous ones ended. This one will too.

opinionated3 · 18-12-2021 4:35pm

Carbon copy of 2021. And we will readily accept the economic damage that follows.

is_that_so · 18-12-2021 4:52pm

I'm inclined to see this as the last phase of this.

Once we get proper details on Omciron we’ll be able to judge what kind of grief it's going to cause us. My own feeling from bits I've read is that it will probably be mild, and may not cause the havoc for hospitals that some are predicting and could effectively end this pandemic.

As regards the government, I do think this is the last shot fired by NHPET And that there will be moves to retire it as planned on October 22nd. I'd expect a very robust review of how they performed and we won't see the likes of it again.

I don't agree about restrictions lasting as far as March. if there is any good indication in January this is starting to ease we probably move with our end of January lifting of restrictions. February for me will be the month where things may start to move a lot faster.

On the vaccine front we will see more entrants and we would probably start to see others move onto a more advanced option. Unfortunately, I can also see more “studies” push for Booster 2 by the summer. Even with that, you would hope 2022 is the year when the rest of the world gets vaccinated.

I think that there should be a lot more therapeutics about, between monoclonal antibodies, anti viral treatments and maybe even some nasal sprays!

I also hope that 2022 is the year when we start to fully understand how this virus works and how we can identify people at risk from it.

Bit cynical · 18-12-2021 5:07pm

The virus will continue to evolve towards more virulent but less lethal variants.

This will lead to a divergence in how different countries approach their handling of it.

One set of countries will decide that the virus, though not completely harmless, is sufficiently mild that the benefits to the economy, livelihoods, mental health, personal freedoms etc., as well as immunity gained from contracting it, outweigh the problems caused like the burden on the health service, ICU admissions, deaths. These countries will allow a controlled spreading of the virus, an "exit wave" which, once passed, will lead to high general level of immunity and low deaths and hospital admissions. Covid, although not eliminated, will stop being news in these countries.

The second set of countries will continue to be focused on case numbers and the goal of eliminating the virus. Since the virus itself is evolving into a less harmful one, more emphasis will be placed on legal measures, prosecutions, closing down of violating businesses and so forth. Because the virus does not spread in the population, these countries rely, almost entirely, on vaccines for whatever level of immunity they get. But the virus evolves faster than vaccines can be developed or modified, so these countries are always one step behind the virus. Year after year in winter, medical committees will become worried about rising case numbers and propose restrictions and countries with weak governments will go along with them.

Stheno · 18-12-2021 5:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342951#Comment_118342951

I think I agree with you. The antiviral treatment will be available hopefully in q1

I'm hopeful for q2 onwards

fun loving criminal · 18-12-2021 5:12pm

I thought we might be at the end of this whole thing by now but that's not looking likely. So I don't have predictions for 2022. I just want my life back like 2019 but that's not going to happen. So yeah, 2022 will be another depressing year because I don't see a way out.

JTMan · 18-12-2021 7:41pm

Predictions for 2022:

Omicron wave whilst less severe, given the numbers involved, causes a massive wave and hospitalisations almost on a par with January last year. Indoor hospitality and schools shut for January and February. Gradual reopening from March, then more restrictions lifted after Easter and then most remaining restrictions (WFH etc) lifted in May. But masks and social distancing rules in certain circumstances remain. i.e. a repeat of last year but quicker lifting of restrictions and certain sectors (retail etc) largely untouched.
Things start to get a lot better from March onwards. High population immunity, vaccination of 5-11 year olds complete, booster program complete, anti-viral pills available, better weather and more outdoor activities and lower levels of Omicron and Delta (but I think both will co-exist and continue to spread).

Possible risks beyond this:

Another variant arrives. Near full escape from vaccines but less virulent. But causes enormous damage because of the immune escape. Custom vaccine required. (I don't think we will be getting a 4th dose of the original vaccine, the next one will be amended).
Winter wave again causing restrictions which might not be on a par with prior years but WFH is mandated for Winter and large indoor gathering restrictions occur.

General points:

2022 will be a better year but not a year where Covid ends. I see it as a step improvement but a step, not a jump.
Greater focus on clean air standards in schools, offices and other buildings.
Greater focus on mask wearing in more indoor settings.
WFH will be required for the vast majority of 2022.

leyahealth · 18-12-2021 7:56pm

There was a very sexy person during the summer of 2020 who predicted almost exactly what would happen and when it would happen, down to each month, and did it again at the start of 2021.

He claimed to be a world expert on disease but was piled on by many a mutant saying this was impossible and that was impossible, laughing and jeering.

He also explained how this would ultimately play out, and what needed to be done. With much jeering and laughing again.

I'd like to know what he thinks about 2022. And 2023, and 2024 too.

But what would be the point? We are where we are because of the idiocy of the population, the government and the other experts. The merry go round goes round and round, round and round, round and round, the merry go round goes round and round, until there's no more choice tra laaaa.

Strumms · 18-12-2021 8:10pm

January and February will be difficult…

I expect my hospital appointment last week of January will be cancelled again and be just a phone consultation with another disinterested consultant who’ll be of the view that because of covid it’s up to me to source or to continue to source and pay for physio etc..

I expect I’m going to go on holiday around April / May just to get some sun, chance of scenery, relaxation and positive vibes….

Cluedo Monopoly · 18-12-2021 11:49pm

I predict a new normal.

Captain Barnacles · 19-12-2021 1:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342697#Comment_118342697

Well not when the virus will keep mutating , if the world had the tech we have back in 1918 the Spanish flu pandemic would still be going on , the regular flu being the zzzzzzzz variant ...

Danzy · 19-12-2021 1:55am

Normality largely returned, nearly all vunerable are triple vaccinated.

94% of adults double jabbed and 50k a day getting booster.

In a month nearly everyone in the world will have antibodies and most will have a strengthed immune response from exposure to this in top of vaccination.Another booster if you will.

Hopefully it won't be messy on the way there.

19-12-2021 1:57am

Restrictions til March, a lifting off them linked to the booster, then more concern come September, muddle along, then restrict again in the winter for whatever new variant, even if it’s as virulent as the common cold.

However, every time we reintroduce restrictions we’ll gain another 10-20% of the population each time who begin to question the approach and go against the grain.

FG and Leo to pipe up around March time and potentially force an election if there’s no concern on the table. A promise to disband NPHET by an arbitrary date in late summer that will come and go without any action as the schools will be back soon.

Oh, and surely we’ll start to run out of money. ECB interest rates will go up, bonds and borrowing will start to gradually increase, and PUP/EWSS supports will be done away with.

Not much to be positive about there, eh?

19-12-2021 9:34am

Szero · 19-12-2021 12:04pm

In 2022 we will deal with new variants with greater antigen drift (vaccines becoming less effective). The level of disruption this will cause will be enormous.

https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1472248623241080838

Glaceon · 19-12-2021 12:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342697#Comment_118342697

Previous pandemics didn’t have air travel to continuously fuel the fire. I fear that this may never end as a result. But I hope you’re right.

xhomelezz · 19-12-2021 12:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058223393/covid-predictions-for-2022

Hopefully no more new COVID threads in 2022.

leyahealth · 19-12-2021 5:31pm

There isn't a leadership in the world that can plan beyond a couple of weeks.

They've tried to cheat and take short cuts, throwing the dice everytime, hoping for divine intervention. And failing everytime.

Airports never closing, during a global pandemic? Imbeciles. And that's just one thing.

Prediction:

They're going to keep repeating the same 2 or 3 weeks reactions until they literally run out of money then, and only then, will they start sealing off countries.

"No, that can't happen because!" they'll bluster and spit, but that's what's going to happen, take it to the bank.

So how long will the money last? June, September? We'll see.

Downlinz · 19-12-2021 6:00pm

2020 was the year of panic, 2021 was the year of hope and 2022 will be the year of despair.

Variants continue to emerge more resistant to the vaccine as confidence in the vaccination program erodes. The majority of people on the planet will be infected by some form of Covid through 2022, the symptoms will be milder than in previous years but the scale of infection will be of such grave enormity that hospitals struggle to cope.

Political tension will be rife as some countries chose further severe lockdowns and others to avoid restrictions entirely as containing the virus becomes increasingly futile. Violence will erupt onto the streets in many countries, some governments may be overthrown in the event of a police brutality response.

19-12-2021 7:35pm

Numbers will peak mid January but the crisis (and major restrictions) will be over by March. Covid will have become endemic and no longer a significant threat to life. It will be a long and blissful summer, we all begin to recuperate and reflect on the years that brought us all closer to the brink. Rebuilding begins, hopefully a little wiser and more rounded societally and individually.

Danzy · 19-12-2021 8:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118347205#Comment_118347205

Only problem with sealing off the country is it's completely Unworkable.

nullzero · 19-12-2021 8:32pm

Schools to reopen towards the end of March with vaccine certs a mandatory requirement for school attendance.

That means that we'll be in lockdown after next week for the guts of three months and that mandatory vaccination of school children will be introduced in all but name. This will cause a backlash like we haven't seen before in this pandemic.

2022 will be the most polarized year of covid so far in terms of what people are willing to accept from their leaders.

A cynical part of me wouldn't be surprised to see covid certs getting a snappy new title like "Smart Certs" or something like that (the implication being that not having one makes you not smart).

In short its going to get very ugly indeed next year.

spaceHopper · 21-12-2021 12:55pm

Parents won't get their under 12's vaccinate in any real numbers. The Government have done too many u-turns and made too many false statements for parents to accept their word the vaccinate is safe for young kids. Covid is a mild illness for otherwise healthy kids. And it would be illegal to force kids to miss school if they are a close contact and un-vaccinated.

Primary schools will be closed in January possibly till March with a vaccinate your kids to protect their education... which is horse sh1t by the way, it wasn't they would vaccinate for chickenpox routenlly.

Vaccine crets will be used for most of 2021 but if they are applied to kids then there will be high court challenge, fearing that they will ruled illegal the government will u-turn on it.

Omicron could be a good thing possibly by the end of March we could go from a pandemic to endemic and end most restrictions by mid summer, except for masks, certs and WFH. I wouldn't go booking a trip to France yet.

Work form home until September mask for all of 2022 is shops....

Teaches strike over how bad the gov had dealt with schools and Norma will resign before Easter.

FF and FG will fall out with FF pulling the plug and we will see a SF / FF + others or SF + others and FF not opposing them government. Leo will get pushed aside and Simon H will take over.

NeedMoreGears · 22-12-2021 11:57am

I'm gonna for optimistic, given this is pretty much impossible to forecast.

Omnicron will have come and gone in two or thee months, after which pretty much everyone is vaccinated/immune through infection. Things could be rough in the interim - frankly I can't say. Perhaps we'll see some positive european data in the next week or two, which will facilitate more social contact.

Pretty much fully back to normal after Omnicron. Perhaps some exceptional circumstances might require minor protocols (say wearing a mask when meeting very vulnerable people).

After that another booster will be offered out of concern that another variant of concern emerges (no clue as to whether this will happen). Anti-viral pills should help.

Bikerguy · 22-12-2021 6:35pm

New virus appears...more lethal.... Riots....shops closed....country out of money....new order world....

Thats what my head is saying....

Covid will mutate to low danger variant and will be with us forever..we will be living without masks and happy again giving handshakes and kisses....

Thats what my hearth is saying

If i would said that 2 years a go people will say i am crazy.... Now nobody will laugh...

22-12-2021 6:49pm

Tangentially related - my prediction is that the restrictions will become so normalised, and mask-wearing so prevalent (and sadly accepted) , that fines will be mooted for 2023 for people seen 'putting on/taking off masks behind the wheel while driving'.

Loafing Oaf · 23-12-2021 12:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362134#Comment_118362134

Thats what my hearth is saying

If i would said that 2 years a go people will say i am crazy

Well in fairness it is a bit unusual to hear your fireplace speaking to you...

23-12-2021 5:07am

My prediction is that the disruptions to our normal life will intensify rapidly and in ways that makes less and less sense. Not only is there no end in sight but we have this permanent state of affairs which is getting more repressive with the expansion of covid passes, restrictions and vaccine mandates but also in terms of our ability to question these decrees and policies.

23-12-2021 11:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364441#Comment_118364441

Well put Bren. Summed up very sweetly and succintly. The 'virus' , it would seem, would appear to be low down in the things to be concerned about 'going forward' ☹️ The sense of overhanging dread as regards all these (and the ones yet to come) intrusions into our liberties is most worrisome indeed. The virus was the 'Frontal Assault' , and the reaction/s to it, the 'Envelopment' .. Life as we know it is disintegrating into complete and unrelenting authoritarianism. Boiled frogs to be sure... Or maybe we'll never be forced to have our 'papers' with us at all times, and in five years, perhaps, we can laugh at, eg, the prospect of implanted rfid chips.. 😤 Doubt it though..

I predict many ~~excuses~~ valid reasons within the small print from politicians/the great and good, as to why their gatherings/behaviours (while apearing to be in contravention of what's allowed) are/were acceptable; all the while for the rest of us, well we know all the rules will apply.. At least until, and as long as they feel mildly obliged to explain themselves. Dark days ahead.

It's good to rant.

Multipass · 23-12-2021 12:07pm

Omicron will be confirmed to be a mild cold for the vast majority. The players will need to come up with a reason to keep the covid pass and vaccine revenue going, so I expect some bad and scary news at some point in the Spring - either a new variant, or some newly discovered risk from current ones.

rovers_runner · 23-12-2021 12:54pm

No more restrictions post March, a proper heave in Govt at that stage and a GE where FF are decimated.

Masks to stubbornly carry on in certain sections of society due to stockholm syndrome.

Attempts to boost under 40's and children fall below 60% compliance, eventually meaning vaccine passports are no longer enforceable. Europe to follow suit after mass public demonstration.

23-12-2021 1:36pm

Legislation passed recently to keep the "temporary" power to impose restrictions in place until middle of next year. If history is anything to go by middle of the night "temporary" legislation has generally tended to remain in place.

The "Omicron" / "Moronic" variant was known from day one to be no more than a cold. As ~25% of all common colds have always been human corona virus, corona will always be with us. But the Gold standard/fraudulent Drosten RT-PCR test with nearly a hundred percent FALSE positive rate can be used at will to turn the common cold into a casedemic and shut down society. So see more and more senseless lockdowns and restrictions on the way.

Booster #4 and #5 for those who want to avail of them to will be required to maintain "vaccinated " status, which will require an implanted chip (woof woof). The restaurants/pubs many claim to have got jabbed to avail of will be gone, bankrupted with doors closed to all, the jabbed, the unjabbed, even Tony Holohan's virus that "loves alcohol".

Imagine still believing this is about stopping a virus!!

23-12-2021 2:07pm

- Continued restrictions through 2022. "Periods of freedom" in between, as Varadker put it recently

- New "variants of concern" 😄

- Expansion of Covid Pass to other areas of life, especially if booster uptake wanes

- Discussion/proposals re: expanding the Covid Pass into something more all-encompassing (digital ID, digital banking etc)

- More kite-flying and discussion around implanting this Covid Pass under one's skin as per recent RTE article (even though the pass was supposed to be a temporary measure 😄)

- Ramping up of anti-lockdown/Covid Pass protests across Europe

- Many more small-medium businesses to fold after being deemed untenable / government supports pulled

- Another crisis.. possibly financial collapse, cyber attack, or major supply chain issues / food shortages in Europe

cheezums · 23-12-2021 2:10pm

Omicron will burn out around mid to late January and hospitalizations and ICU numbers will reduce dramatically. All restrictions to end sometime in February and that's the end of Covid.

23-12-2021 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360158#Comment_118360158

I think you (and everyone else) may need to let go of this "back to normal" idea. That ship has sailed. Klaus Schwab and the WEF have said the notion is "fiction". Even the politicians here like Varadker and Harris are saying it's not going to happen.

23-12-2021 2:31pm

The breaking point for the HSE is not hospitalisations but staff numbers. Hospital I work in had 10% of staff out on covid related isolation/sick leave. Need more hospital staff really.

Deeper Blue · 23-12-2021 3:32pm

Bruce Willis to star as Tony Holohan in "Hold Firm 2: Hold Firmer"

COVID predictions for 2022

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