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COVID predictions for 2022

  • 18-12-2021 10:10am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,445 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    How do people think this plays out in 2022? Might be fun to look back on in 12 months time.

    I think we are going to see a large number of cases over the next few weeks with Omicron but it won't translate into large hospitalisations. Testing will fall apart.

    Government and NPHET will panic and bring in more restrictions. Probably full closure of hospitality and maybe retail. Restrictions will be extended and could be March before we start cautiously reopening.

    Towards late summer we'll open with masks in place and COVID certs requiring a 3rd shot. Also will have to be careful about reopening schools.

    Come Autumn cases will pick up pace and a new variant will eventually emerge along with winter panic. Restrictions quickly brought back in.

    On a financial footing, inflation will become a huge concern and government will do everything they can to close sectors without giving PUP.


    A grim 2022 in my opinion as the world starts to accept that restrictions are going nowhere.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 758 ✭✭✭ alentejo


    I predict that every one over 50 who tests positive with COVID will be sent anti viral pills to take asap to mitigate against hospitalization.

    Bootster shots for everyone before mid October

    Each wave slightly less distrupive than previous ones.


    Alot more demos against restrictions



  • Registered Users Posts: 249 ✭✭ Jimi H


    Big case numbers in January. Restrictions extended or increased until Paddys Day. Protect the health service mantra. Covid certs mandatory for more and more sectors. The big hope for me anyway is that omicron proves to be relatively mild and the virus simply runs it’s course. Hopefully these threads will be a thing of the past this time next year and we’re partying like 2018.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,499 ✭✭✭ bokale


    My hope before yesterday was a big opening of everything in the Spring and a good run at it all for the year.

    But yesterday knocks me back a bit as this "vaccine wall" didn't really hold out at all? Even if it was April now would they still be closing things with Omicron on the horizon?

    So right now I don't have much hope, but I'm probably not great at reading the figures etc so hopefully well off!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,993 ✭✭✭✭ Dav010


    A super variant that turbo charges evolution ridding the world of the least intelligent, obstinate and conspiracy theorists.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 11,915 Mod ✭✭✭✭ TheDriver


    I predict a massive resistance to vaccines for under 12s and govt trying everything to remedy.

    Jan will see huge case numbers but hospitalisations holding steady, where we all say SA experts were correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,533 ✭✭✭ Radharc na Sleibhte


    I see us all back reopen by end Jan once they see omicron wasn’t as big a problem as feared. Then onto the next variant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Current restrictions to run until March 21st.

    New variant Rho emerges in April-May.

    Fourth and fifth booster campaigns - one around Easter and another in October.

    Limited re-opening of hospitality between St. Patrick's and Easter but restrictions re-instated once news of the Rho variant emerges.

    Gradual lifting of restrictions in early-August (after BH Weekend)

    Nightclubs with limited capacity open mid-August to late-October (closed before last BH Weekend)

    Another variant late October called Sigma.

    Yet again Christmas lockdown which will finally trigger a collapse of the Government with fresh elections to take place in Spring 2023 - a "caretaker Govt" will limp along through the Christmas-New Year-Winter period.

    A kind of rinse and repeat of 2021.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    They might not go with new variant names, I think they'd come up with "Covid-21" or "Covid-22".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,647 ✭✭✭ Signore Fancy Pants


    "Covid - The Revenge".

    Bigger, stronger, sexier....more teeth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,120 ✭✭✭ Lollipop95


    rinse and repeat of 2021



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Said it before. Don't see any point in changing now. Things will start to look better after winter is over. Be a shitshow between now and then though.

    This isn't the first pandemic. All the previous ones ended. This one will too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭ opinionated3


    Carbon copy of 2021. And we will readily accept the economic damage that follows.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    I'm inclined to see this as the last phase of this.

    Once we get proper details on Omciron we’ll be able to judge what kind of grief it's going to cause us. My own feeling from bits I've read is that it will probably be mild, and may not cause the havoc for hospitals that some are predicting and could effectively end this pandemic.

    As regards the government, I do think this is the last shot fired by NHPET And that there will be moves to retire it as planned on October 22nd. I'd expect a very robust review of how they performed and we won't see the likes of it again.

    I don't agree about restrictions lasting as far as March. if there is any good indication in January this is starting to ease we probably move with our end of January lifting of restrictions. February for me will be the month where things may start to move a lot faster.

    On the vaccine front we will see more entrants and we would probably start to see others move onto a more advanced option. Unfortunately, I can also see more “studies” push for Booster 2 by the summer. Even with that, you would hope 2022 is the year when the rest of the world gets vaccinated.

    I think that there should be a lot more therapeutics about, between monoclonal antibodies, anti viral treatments and maybe even some nasal sprays!

    I also hope that 2022 is the year when we start to fully understand how this virus works and how we can identify people at risk from it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ Bit cynical


    The virus will continue to evolve towards more virulent but less lethal variants.

    This will lead to a divergence in how different countries approach their handling of it.

    One set of countries will decide that the virus, though not completely harmless, is sufficiently mild that the benefits to the economy, livelihoods, mental health, personal freedoms etc., as well as immunity gained from contracting it, outweigh the problems caused like the burden on the health service, ICU admissions, deaths. These countries will allow a controlled spreading of the virus, an "exit wave" which, once passed, will lead to high general level of immunity and low deaths and hospital admissions. Covid, although not eliminated, will stop being news in these countries.

    The second set of countries will continue to be focused on case numbers and the goal of eliminating the virus. Since the virus itself is evolving into a less harmful one, more emphasis will be placed on legal measures, prosecutions, closing down of violating businesses and so forth. Because the virus does not spread in the population, these countries rely, almost entirely, on vaccines for whatever level of immunity they get. But the virus evolves faster than vaccines can be developed or modified, so these countries are always one step behind the virus. Year after year in winter, medical committees will become worried about rising case numbers and propose restrictions and countries with weak governments will go along with them.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,491 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Stheno


    I think I agree with you. The antiviral treatment will be available hopefully in q1

    I'm hopeful for q2 onwards



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭ fun loving criminal


    I thought we might be at the end of this whole thing by now but that's not looking likely. So I don't have predictions for 2022. I just want my life back like 2019 but that's not going to happen. So yeah, 2022 will be another depressing year because I don't see a way out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,337 ✭✭✭ JTMan


    Predictions for 2022:

    • Omicron wave whilst less severe, given the numbers involved, causes a massive wave and hospitalisations almost on a par with January last year. Indoor hospitality and schools shut for January and February. Gradual reopening from March, then more restrictions lifted after Easter and then most remaining restrictions (WFH etc) lifted in May. But masks and social distancing rules in certain circumstances remain. i.e. a repeat of last year but quicker lifting of restrictions and certain sectors (retail etc) largely untouched.
    • Things start to get a lot better from March onwards. High population immunity, vaccination of 5-11 year olds complete, booster program complete, anti-viral pills available, better weather and more outdoor activities and lower levels of Omicron and Delta (but I think both will co-exist and continue to spread).

    Possible risks beyond this:

    • Another variant arrives. Near full escape from vaccines but less virulent. But causes enormous damage because of the immune escape. Custom vaccine required. (I don't think we will be getting a 4th dose of the original vaccine, the next one will be amended).
    • Winter wave again causing restrictions which might not be on a par with prior years but WFH is mandated for Winter and large indoor gathering restrictions occur.

    General points:

    • 2022 will be a better year but not a year where Covid ends. I see it as a step improvement but a step, not a jump.
    • Greater focus on clean air standards in schools, offices and other buildings.
    • Greater focus on mask wearing in more indoor settings.
    • WFH will be required for the vast majority of 2022.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 2 leyahealth


    There was a very sexy person during the summer of 2020 who predicted almost exactly what would happen and when it would happen, down to each month, and did it again at the start of 2021.


    He claimed to be a world expert on disease but was piled on by many a mutant saying this was impossible and that was impossible, laughing and jeering.


    He also explained how this would ultimately play out, and what needed to be done. With much jeering and laughing again.


    I'd like to know what he thinks about 2022. And 2023, and 2024 too.


    But what would be the point? We are where we are because of the idiocy of the population, the government and the other experts. The merry go round goes round and round, round and round, round and round, the merry go round goes round and round, until there's no more choice tra laaaa.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,828 ✭✭✭✭ Strumms


    January and February will be difficult…

    I expect my hospital appointment last week of January will be cancelled again and be just a phone consultation with another disinterested consultant who’ll be of the view that because of covid it’s up to me to source or to continue to source and pay for physio etc..

    I expect I’m going to go on holiday around April / May just to get some sun, chance of scenery, relaxation and positive vibes….



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,983 ✭✭✭ Cluedo Monopoly


    I predict a new normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 270 ✭✭ Captain Barnacles


    Well not when the virus will keep mutating , if the world had the tech we have back in 1918 the Spanish flu pandemic would still be going on , the regular flu being the zzzzzzzz variant ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,819 ✭✭✭✭ Danzy


    Normality largely returned, nearly all vunerable are triple vaccinated.


    94% of adults double jabbed and 50k a day getting booster.


    In a month nearly everyone in the world will have antibodies and most will have a strengthed immune response from exposure to this in top of vaccination.Another booster if you will.


    Hopefully it won't be messy on the way there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 880 ✭✭✭ FTB2021


    Restrictions til March, a lifting off them linked to the booster, then more concern come September, muddle along, then restrict again in the winter for whatever new variant, even if it’s as virulent as the common cold.

    However, every time we reintroduce restrictions we’ll gain another 10-20% of the population each time who begin to question the approach and go against the grain.

    FG and Leo to pipe up around March time and potentially force an election if there’s no concern on the table. A promise to disband NPHET by an arbitrary date in late summer that will come and go without any action as the schools will be back soon.

    Oh, and surely we’ll start to run out of money. ECB interest rates will go up, bonds and borrowing will start to gradually increase, and PUP/EWSS supports will be done away with.

    Not much to be positive about there, eh?



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,993 ✭✭✭✭ Dav010





  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭ Szero


    In 2022 we will deal with new variants with greater antigen drift (vaccines becoming less effective). The level of disruption this will cause will be enormous.




  • Registered Users Posts: 946 ✭✭✭ Glaceon


    Previous pandemics didn’t have air travel to continuously fuel the fire. I fear that this may never end as a result. But I hope you’re right.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,521 ✭✭✭ xhomelezz




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