Scottish independence

The reality of irelands geography will determine our history as it has done for centuries.

sometimes it has been a blessing sometimes a curse. During world war 2 our geography was a huge blessing.

During the dark ages on continental Europe Ireland was an isolated refuge for Christianity.

During the Roman times Ireland was a refuge for Celts.

Our geography and resources meant we missed out on the industrial revolution.

but we don’t miss what we never had. It’s likely many parts of Ireland would resemble the North of England today if we had industrialised.

We will never be part of any high speed integrated European rail system. It makes no economic or geographical sense. Maybe someday the cork-Dublin rail line could be upgraded to high speed but that’s decades in the future.

Good smooth running airports and ferry terminals is what will keep us well connected.

Maybe someday technology will allow ferries to run faster and reach france in a few hours that would be the real game changer for Ireland.

The five-point swing is by reference to the previous IPSOS Mori poll on Scottish independence, which was last May. So this isn't necessarily a response to any particular development; could be a cumulative thing that reflects a number of developments or a gradual shift in sentiment.

Or, of course, it could be just one of those statistical blips. I wouldn't get too excited about this unless polls conducted by other companies start to show similar levels of support for independence.

The age breakdown of that poll makes for interesting reading:

16-24: 71%

25-34: 71%

35-44: 63%

45-54: 58%

55-64: 49%

65+ 34%

Seems that the support for independence is very strong amongst the younger age groups and it's the elderly that are proving the hardest to convince. Unionists may have to hope that those who are in the pro-independence camp abandon the ambition as they get older but is that likely, especially since the young are the ones who will have burned the most significantly by Brexit?

It's looking like independence is now a case of when and not if. The difficulty for Sturgeon and the SNP is that many of those who want independence are becoming restless. If she can't deliver a referendum by 2023 then she will look impotent; if she delivers an unofficial referendum, she risks spooking those who have come to the Yes side in recent years.

It's less that people become more conservative, its that what is defined as conservative tends to get generally relaxed generation by generation. show a british conservative from the 80's their manifesto from the last election and they would probably think the conservative party had gone mad. Really the only genuine constants with conservatism Protect home owners, protect businesses, rings more true when you are older and become a home owner or involved in a running a business. Problem there is the UK is suffering just as much as Ireland with a home owning crisis and the current tory government have been as useful to business as a sack of sh*te. So the conservatives are pushing away those people who would shift more conservative as they get older.

They should be concerned that the % is still quite high right up to people in their fifties.

There are a lot of retired folk from England in Scotland. Not as much as the number in Wales but that would also explain the grey vote

Not directly related to Scottish indpendence but interesting none the less. I always thought that the divergence between Scotland and England was due to the Roman invasion but from this story it goes back further.

The peoples of Scotland and England were culturally divergent long before Hadrian’s Wall and the Roman invasion of Britain, research has revealed. A wide range of archaeological features, including the distinctive roundhouses known as brochs, are widely distributed in Scotland but are almost non-existent south of the border.

I'm surprised there hasn't been a bigger rise in support for independence with the amount of Tory scandals that have gone on. Fifty per cent support is still a pretty good starting point for a referendum campaign given the dearth of leadership in unionism.

I wonder, though, how a change of PM would affect things. I don't see Johnson going any time soon but he may be gone in a year or so. Will independence supporters get a better opportunity than having Johnson at the helm?