Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 29-11-2021 3:21pm #1

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Winter 2021/2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks

With only a day left to go in Autumn I felt the time was right to open the Winter short range model thread. After a very chilly weekend the final 2 days of Autumn will end on a mild note. We begin Winter on Wednesday and it will turn colder again as winds plunge down from the north.

On Wednesday and Thursday temperatures may struggle to get much past 5C so it will feel fairly chilly in those northerly winds.

Temperatures will stay fairly cool between Wednesday and Saturday particularly over Leinster and Ulster with temperatures struggling in single digits with a chilly north-west airflow up to Saturday.

Rainfall amounts look mostly light across the east and south with about 10mm of rain expected between now and Saturday but western and northern areas could see quite a bit more than this, possibly up 50mm of rainfall there close to the coasts. From Wednesday precipitation could turn a bit wintry across high ground particularly in the north-west.

Meteorite58 · 29-11-2021 10:11pm

Will keep an eye on this deepening Low crossing Ireland later Fri/ early Sat . Currently looks windy in the SW,S and quite wet and possibly even wintry. Been hinting at something on and off over the last couple of days. The Jet adding a bit of oomph perhaps.

Meteorite58 · 30-11-2021 12:20am

UKMO showing something also for Fri / Sat.

Meteorite58 · 30-11-2021 9:59pm

In general the models showing later Fri into Saturday windy on the coasts and blustery overland Saturday. Wet and wintry at times, hail and and a few thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Low temperatures and feeling even colder in the windy conditions. A good lick of winter.

pauldry · 01-12-2021 2:14pm

Next Tuesday looks a bit lively. Even Met Eireann are mentioning it.

Probably should be on +120 page but so shocked chart has actually attached to my post after over 5,000 attempts

Donegal Ken · 01-12-2021 3:45pm

Definitely one to watch over the weekend. That mad chart on the autumn thread might not of been far wrong. Could see very strong winds and depending on the were the low tracks possibly some wintry conditions also. Interesting few days model watching.

pauldry · 02-12-2021 1:58am

Charts are all over the place for the next week. It must be to do with the jet. Some charts showing storms near us others are like repeat of Arwen others wintry weather in the North.

None are showing much dry weather so it will be wet. And probably windy. But how windy.

Currently 70 to 140kph range. Does that mean Tuesday will end up being 110kph?

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2021 10:01pm

Will put the charts for the Storm showing up on the charts for next Tuesday in here as the approach and effects likely to be felt before +120hrs .

Looks like it is deepening as it reaches our shores and fills slowly. Very tight Isobars on the ECM and UKMO which are remarkably similar at this stage.

As low as 948hPa from the UKMO, ECM around 949hPa and GFS 954hPa and ICON about 970 hPa.

UKMO the strongest so far moving the winds well inland but too far away yet. ECM showing strong winds mainly for coastal areas , GFS strong winds largely missing Ireland and ICON windy but nothing too strong. GEM 12Z an outlier I reckon, no storm to be seen, like the GFS 18Z last night, GEM should have it back on the next run ( it was very similar to the ECM and UKMO on the 0Z )

So confidence growing that a strong wind event could be felt Tues into Weds but will only know how strong over the coming days. Quite wet also especially along Atlantic coastal counties.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2021 11:09pm

Latest ICON 18Z very stormy over Ireland.

Nowhere certain of track and strength yet

Donegal Ken · 03-12-2021 2:47am

The most likely track at the moment is tracking close to the west and northwest coast of Ireland based on the overall model outlook. Alot of swapping and changing to come this weekend. Will be at least later Sunday until we have a fairly certain picture of the situation.

pad199207 · 03-12-2021 8:56am

GFS overnight has it further south with a very low pressure reading

Would be watching the barometers that day

pauldry · 03-12-2021 9:41am

It will likely shift South a bit more and fill a bit more too. However some really strong winds likely and cold easily go above 120kph in worst areas. As with previous storms in Sligo 120kph gusts seems to be the tipping point where we go from minor damage to widespread power cuts and felled trees and slates.

Danno · 03-12-2021 10:30am

Not liking the ECM output (0z) as it puts us into a mild zonal flow following the storm. The storm though takes an unusual track, develops to our W, tracks up to our NW and then dives to our SE. A most unusual track for an Atlantic storm.

pauldry · 03-12-2021 2:07pm

Met Eireann only mentioning Windy for Tuesday. I assume they will change the details nearer the time. Surely at least a yellow warning will be needed.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2021 2:34pm

Re Cork

-Very deep low sub 960

- Gale force Easterly

- High tide

- Torrential rain

- Huge swell

Means only one thing, if it were to play out as projected. IF!

Donegal Ken · 03-12-2021 2:58pm

Most likely scenario with Met Éireann will be a weather Advisory on Saturday at the earliest then a status yellow wind warning for places if there still is uncertainty and around 24 hours out upgraded warnings issued then. Unless there's a stonewall agreement on Sunday the might not jump ahead issuing a early warning. Still lots of changes will happen over the next 48 hours. If the GFS is right it may only be a low impact storm with yellow warnings for coastal areas of the south and southwest.

pad199207 · 03-12-2021 5:06pm

Looks a shift north on the GFS

pauldry · 03-12-2021 5:07pm

Latest GFS likely bringing 130kph to Connemara and 120kph in many Atlantic districts. ...if it were to pass.

Still think it can miss us South or North or fill.

pad199207 · 03-12-2021 5:12pm

GFS putting it west of Ireland now and winds weaker

squarecircles · 03-12-2021 5:18pm

ICON is alarming, with 150kmh gusts along the west coast.

MOST MODELS HAVE IT IMPACTING Ireland directly apart from the GFS.

squarecircles · 03-12-2021 5:19pm

https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/deu-hd/ireland/gusts/20211207-1500z.html

pad199207 · 03-12-2021 5:20pm

ICON has a very tight gradient onto the west coast( Galway Bay) in particular and then has that pull south down across Ireland or just east of Ireland

Oscar Bravo · 03-12-2021 5:40pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland

A spell of wet and very windy weather is expected to impact Ireland on Tuesday 7th and Wednesday the 8th December, with potential impacts including travel disruption and coastal flooding. There is also the potential for wintry precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday which may lead to further travel disruptions.

This advisory will be updated on Saturday while warnings will likely be issued on Sunday.

for more details see: https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Valid: 16:15 Friday 03/12/2021 to 18:00 Wednesday 08/12/2021

Issued: 16:16 Friday 03/12/2021

pad199207 · 03-12-2021 5:41pm

Must be one the earliest weather advisories I can remember

Cork2021 · 03-12-2021 6:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264098#Comment_118264098

The wintry part is catching me, hadn’t seen much on model to suggest it

squarecircles · 03-12-2021 6:08pm

Storm depression approaching Ireland Tuesday 7th December 2021

Meteorologists Emer Flood & Paul Downes

A deepening Atlantic depression will bring a spell of windy and wet weather to Ireland on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For latest advisories and warnings: https://www.met.ie/warnings/today

This storm depression will develop in the mid-Atlantic on Monday as a result of dynamic forcing from jet streaks in the upper atmosphere. This depression will rapidly deepen upon its approach to Ireland as it tracks northeastwards over the Atlantic.

The associated wind field will reach Ireland from Monday night. The cyclone’s centre will be around 950 to 960hPa deep as it approaches the west coast on Tuesday morning.

The exact track and timing of the cyclone is not definite at this stage as there have been small differences between successive model runs. Therefore, the location and timing of the strongest gusts is not certain yet, but Atlantic coastal counties will likely experience the strongest winds during Tuesday.

The depression will likely move slowly eastwards over or near Ireland overnight Tuesday and during Wednesday as it starts to fill and weaken. It will likely track eastwards away from Ireland overnight Wednesday pull in a cold polar airmass in its wake.

Possible Impacts

This cyclone will bring gales across much of Ireland during Tuesday, with damaging gusts likely in some areas, and gales or strong gales developing in most sea areas, with storm force winds possible for a time at times on Tuesday.

The strengthening winds will be accompanied by a spell of heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by heavy showers. Showers will continue overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday. With colder air wrapping around the depression centre and pulled over Ireland on Wednesday, there is potential for some of the showers to fall as sleet, or snow on high ground.

We are currently entering a period of Spring tides with the peak expected on Monday; however coastal levels are expected to remain NORMAL over the weekend and into Monday due to low surge levels forecast. Coastal levels are expect to be ELEVATED later on Monday night and Tuesday as a deep low pressure system approaches from the Atlantic and due to the coincidence of high spring tides, strong and gusty winds, and expected large surge levels. There is still uncertainty between model runs on the timing and path of the low pressure system, which should improve as future model runs become available.

pauldry · 04-12-2021 2:59am

Ya wet snow after the wind. Hurray. Wind gusty tonight. Must be warming up for Tuesday.

Cork2021 · 04-12-2021 1:14pm

Alls quite here…. Don’t know is that a good thing or bad…

Gonzo · 04-12-2021 1:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268086#Comment_118268086

Most discussion about Tuesdays wind event is taking place here https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058221056/potential-significant-windstorm-tuesday-december-7th-8th#latest

As for what happens after next Tuesday is terms of our weather is a bit of a mystery right now, everything will depend on the tracking of the low pressure.

Cork2021 · 04-12-2021 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118268092#Comment_118268092

Thanks Gonzo! New boards!!!

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2021 12:39pm

That feature that pauldry mentioned on the Winter thread in looking deeper and looking a lot windier now on the latest runs .

Can see it is being powered up by the jet, fast moving and deepening rapidly, moves through in a few hours but could be very windy for a time along Atlantic coasts especially the W and NW, bit of a difference atm in strength but ECM is about an average I would think of the models, currently looking like probably tipping around 100km/h along the coasts in the W and NW, blustery overland for a few hours. Will keep an eye on the track.

Looks extremely strong and damaging when it makes it to the Hebrides later Sunday night/ early Monday morning but again going through in a few hours.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2021 1:08pm

Worth noting that the UKMO is looking the strongest for Sunday by far but I think it has been proven over the past few events that it can initially look very windy, pulls back closer to the event and often looks that bit too strong compared to the general consensus at the off and has been proven to overdo the wind speeds a bit when looking back after the event although the charts available are that bit crude on meteologix. But worth keeping an eye on nevertheless to see how they fare this time.

pauldry · 10-12-2021 3:46pm

That little feature is dangerous enough for us in NW but after surviving a night of Barras Best (see what I did there) I think we can take an hour or 2 of 120kph gales. Hopefully.

After this GFS(latest) has it drying out for most of Christmas build up and even beyond.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2021 11:39pm

Interesting read below about the formation of Shapiro-Keyser Lows.

https://twitter.com/eddy_weather/status/1469406679955615746?s=20

http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2021 12:39pm

Will see how windy it gets this afternoon, maybe between 100 -110 km/h gusts along the W and NW, some models showing strong enough winds in over Connacht and Donegal for a time.

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2021 10:54pm

The models showing some high rainfall totals from Weds to Sat.

LP near by becoming blocked and more or less stalled sending in plenty bands of rain .

mcburns07 · 20-12-2021 11:01pm

Looks shocking for my neck of the woods :(

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2021 11:29pm

As Christmas day is now mostly within 120hrs looks more than likely we wont see snow.

Looks very wet Fri into Saturday and blustery in Northern counties. Could see rainfall warnings yet.

Tyrone212 · 21-12-2021 12:05am

GFS says yes to a white Christmas across the North

Tyrone212 · 21-12-2021 12:06am

A snowy christmas evening for some if that transpires.

pauldry · 21-12-2021 1:25am

Yr.no showing 41mm of rain for Christmas day in Sligo. Last week it was dry and 2c. At least a deluge isn't as boring as 13c and misty drizzle.

BLIZZARD7 · 21-12-2021 5:15am

Well well...the roller coaster continues 😁 GFS and UKMO putting snow back on the table for Christmas night into St.Stephens day.

torres9kop · 21-12-2021 8:12am

Lovely jubbley. If it snows Stephen’s day where most likely. Thanks

torres9kop · 21-12-2021 8:16am

Sky news saying ice and snow for xmas

pauldry · 21-12-2021 8:19am

Yay....for now.

Still yay later?

esposito · 21-12-2021 8:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118354842#Comment_118354842

a few more twists and turns to come I think. ECM still needs to move the low south a few hundred miles

Rebelbrowser · 21-12-2021 8:30am

Yeah, ECM very different. Unbelievable differences at less than 100 hours away

Danno · 21-12-2021 9:54am

Incredible chopping and changing by the models. The GFS has it snowing around southern inland Leinster/east Munster as the front pulls away south late on Christmas night into Stephen's Day morning...

Tyrone212 · 21-12-2021 4:34pm

None the wiser

Kermit.de.frog · 21-12-2021 5:09pm

GFS 12z eyeing a Christmas night nigh on blizzard conditions for a chunk of the country...

Where the southern frontal zones thrown up ahead of that relatively deep developing low pressure just to the south meet the cold boundary is going to be important whatever way it goes.

Some of the other models will undoubtedly differ.

Gonzo · 21-12-2021 5:17pm

This would be knife edge stuff with mild air very close by. Currently it looks like much of Leinster will receive a dusting but not till later on Christmas Day night after perhaps several hours of cold rain beforehand. The low is definitely every so slightly further south. Another 17 GFS runs to go between now and then, expect every one of them to be different.

Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Weather Advisory for Ireland

Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST