Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Worth noting that the UKMO is looking the strongest for Sunday by far but I think it has been proven over the past few events that it can initially look very windy, pulls back closer to the event and often looks that bit too strong compared to the general consensus at the off and has been proven to overdo the wind speeds a bit when looking back after the event although the charts available are that bit crude on meteologix. But worth keeping an eye on nevertheless to see how they fare this time.

pauldry

That little feature is dangerous enough for us in NW but after surviving a night of Barras Best (see what I did there) I think we can take an hour or 2 of 120kph gales. Hopefully.

After this GFS(latest) has it drying out for most of Christmas build up and even beyond.

Meteorite58

Interesting read below about the formation of Shapiro-Keyser Lows.

https://twitter.com/eddy_weather/status/1469406679955615746?s=20

http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html

Meteorite58

Will see how windy it gets this afternoon, maybe between 100 -110 km/h gusts along the W and NW, some models showing strong enough winds in over Connacht and Donegal for a time.

Meteorite58

The models showing some high rainfall totals from Weds to Sat.

LP near by becoming blocked and more or less stalled sending in plenty bands of rain .

mcburns07

Looks shocking for my neck of the woods :(

Meteorite58

As Christmas day is now mostly within 120hrs looks more than likely we wont see snow.

Looks very wet Fri into Saturday and blustery in Northern counties. Could see rainfall warnings yet.

Tyrone212

GFS says yes to a white Christmas across the North

Tyrone212

A snowy christmas evening for some if that transpires.

pauldry

Yr.no showing 41mm of rain for Christmas day in Sligo. Last week it was dry and 2c. At least a deluge isn't as boring as 13c and misty drizzle.

BLIZZARD7

Well well...the roller coaster continues 😁 GFS and UKMO putting snow back on the table for Christmas night into St.Stephens day.

torres9kop

Lovely jubbley. If it snows Stephen’s day where most likely. Thanks

torres9kop

Sky news saying ice and snow for xmas

pauldry

Yay....for now.

Still yay later?

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118354842#Comment_118354842

a few more twists and turns to come I think. ECM still needs to move the low south a few hundred miles

Rebelbrowser

Yeah, ECM very different. Unbelievable differences at less than 100 hours away

Danno

Incredible chopping and changing by the models. The GFS has it snowing around southern inland Leinster/east Munster as the front pulls away south late on Christmas night into Stephen's Day morning...

Tyrone212

None the wiser

Kermit.de.frog

GFS 12z eyeing a Christmas night nigh on blizzard conditions for a chunk of the country...

Where the southern frontal zones thrown up ahead of that relatively deep developing low pressure just to the south meet the cold boundary is going to be important whatever way it goes.

Some of the other models will undoubtedly differ.

Gonzo

This would be knife edge stuff with mild air very close by. Currently it looks like much of Leinster will receive a dusting but not till later on Christmas Day night after perhaps several hours of cold rain beforehand. The low is definitely every so slightly further south. Another 17 GFS runs to go between now and then, expect every one of them to be different.

Kermit.de.frog

The control run is even better than that actually.

Meteorite58

A bit away and the models differ quite a bit yet but a chance of some windy weather next Weds.

ECM ,for now, keeping the strongest winds to the W /NW whereas GFS produces the strongest winds and bringing the deepening center of a fast moving small area of LP tracking over Ireland with ICON similar to GFS. Timings and track all over the place from early morning to the afternoon and from the afternoon until the evening so will need to see how it pans out.

Could produce some heavy rain for a time also.

Meteorite58

Blustery for a time on Tues and again on Weds ( GFS not showing the very strong winds as earlier runs ). Also Thurs looks blustery and ECM showing a disturbance going into Fri that could produce strong winds for a time but again this could get watered down on further runs.

ascophyllum

GFS 06z shows red warning conditions for West Mayo tomorrow morning. Granted it's the more extreme parts of the county but plenty of people living there, there isn't even a yellow warning on met.ie. GFS has been on the money for the last few events.

DOCARCH

There is yellow warning for Mayo and Galway.

ascophyllum

That yellow warning has gone up since my post, the met ie website is still showing 43 kmh on the summary chart and 59kmh on the detailed forecast for my area tomorrow morning. This is what people will be looking at and won't realise there's over twice that coming. Again I recognize it's coastal areas but it's still a few thousand people affected.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118395132#Comment_118395132

Was surprised to see that too ascophyllum, all the models have upped the wind speeds overnight into early morning but the GFS is a bit of an outlier at this stage bringing the center of another deepening Low ( wave depression I would think ) much closer than all the other models at this stage anyway. But yes I think the GFS also has been performing quite well of late, the recent upgrades seem to be going fairly well. Would always rate it as being fairly accurate within 24hrs but the discrepancy in comparison to the other models has to be taken into account at this stage but that is not to say the other models wont lean towards the GFS in later runs , complex system and very fast moving aided by a very fast Jet. The next model out put will be interesting.

Meteorite58

Met Office charts showing that second rapidly deepening area of Low Pressure also , the difference is in how close it gets to Ireland , GFS has a far steeper more elongated gradient.

Meteorite58

ICON, ECM 06Z showing the offshore winds a lot stronger on this run, up to around 100 to 110 km/h along the Kerry, Galway and Mayo coasts for a time, highest in the West ,blustery overland and moving through quickly.

Rain overnight going through quickly, heavy showers following on Saturday. Showing high temperatures for a time in the early hours of Saturday morning, up to 15C! Temperatures falling back again on Saturday, will see if some of those showers are convective in nature , might be a bit blustery or squally at times, wouldn't be surprised if there was some hail showers if producing somewhat small hail size. Met Eireann saying chance of lightning along Atlantic counties also.

Meteorite58

GFS 12Z has pulled the strongest winds offshore, now more in line with the bunch, will see if the later charts are showing a bit stronger for the coasts.

Maybe some more counties getting warnings especially in the NW if just for a short duration of a few hours if the charts upgrade another bit, all happening overnight for the most part of course but still could prove rather windy for a time.